Regime change emerges as unstated goal of Israel's war in Iran

Friction point: When the Israel Defense Forces thought they had a window to assassinate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei over the weekend, Trump opposed it.

• A senior administration official summed up the thinking: "It's the Ayatollah you know versus the Ayatollah you don't know."
• That's not to say Trump couldn't decide to "swoop in and do some gigantic action," the official cautioned.

Driving the news: Trump issued an ominous warning overnight that everyone in Tehran (population 10 million) should "immediately evacuate," then announced he was leaving the G7 summit early.

• Speculation of an imminent U.S. attack spread like wildfire, before the White House denied it, and Trump himself suggested he might cut a deal.

Behind the scenes: Israeli officials tell Axios that regime change isn't an official war aim.

• It was not one of the objectives approved by the Israeli security cabinet ahead of the war, and several Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officials said they've received no such directive from the political level.
• But discussions about it are getting louder and more overt.

What they're saying: Netanyahu openly stated on Fox News on Sunday that the war could bring regime change to Iran. Then on Monday, he contended that killing Khamenei could "end the war."

• "It's not going to escalate the conflict, it's going to end the conflict," Netanyahu told ABC News. He stressed Israel will do "what it needs to do."
• In a press conference with Israeli reporters on Monday, Netanyahu reiterated that message. "This is a very weak regime that now understands how weak it is... we could see many changes in Iran," he said.
• Subtlety is not the objective. Netanyahu appeared on an Iranian opposition TV program on Monday called "Regime Change In Iran" and mentioned that nobody saw the fall of the Soviet Union or Syria's Assad regime coming until it happened.

The other side: The White House supports Israel's stated war aims of eliminating Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, but not a broader mission to reshape Iran through force.

• "They might be more comfortable with regime change than we are," the U.S. official said, referring to the Israelis. "They may be more comfortable with destroying the country than we are."
• "But generally speaking, the world should want this bomb capacity to be destroyed, and eventually we're going to have to get that done."

Zoom in: After focusing its attacks on military and nuclear targets for the first three days, the IDF attacked Iran's state TV studios on Monday during a live broadcast.

• While the IDF claimed the building was also used for military purposes, Netanyahu said the strike was intended to limit the regime's ability to broadcast propaganda to the Iranian people.
• He stressed other regime targets will be attacked in the coming days.

State of play: Since the war started last Friday, there have been no widespread protests in Iran against the regime.

• Raz Zimmt, a top Israeli expert on Iran from the INSS think tank, told Axios that for now the regime is maintaining its cohesion and determination, and is even closing ranks in the face of the external threat from Israel.
• The massive security failures may have intensified the hostility many Iranians feel toward their government, Zimmt said. But images of wounded civilians and damaged neighborhoods in Tehran also "contribute to a strengthening of national solidarity and rallying around the flag."
• However, Zimmt said, if the war continues and increasingly harms the regime's internal security and intelligence capabilities, it could weaken significantly over time.

What to watch: Israeli officials say it's not clear whether regime change will become an official objective of the war. But they believe publicly flirting with the idea could increase the pressure on Khamenei to eventually agree to dismantle Iran's nuclear program to save his regime.

Go deeper: Trump team proposes Iran talks this week on nuclear deal, ceasefire