Axios

President Trump escalated his threats to seize Cuba this week — raising questions about whether he might seek to topple the Communist Caribbean island's leader Miguel Díaz-Canel.

The big picture: As Cuba's totalitarian government faces a deepening energy crisis that saw an island-wide blackout amid a U.S.-imposed oil blockade, Trump told reporters Monday he believes he'll be "having the honor of taking" the island.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company is in the process of restarting manufacturing of its H200 chips for shipments to China.

Why it matters: Nvidia is eager to re-enter the crucial Chinese market, but its efforts have been hampered by U.S. export restrictions and Beijing's push to build a domestic chip industry.

Most NATO members have informed the U.S. that they don't want to get involved in the Strait of Hormuz coalition the Trump administration is trying to put together, President Trump said on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The strait closure has become the main crisis in the war for the White House. As long as the Iranian blockade holds and Gulf oil remains trapped, Trump can't end the war and declare victory even if he wants to.

Cyber activity tied to the escalating war between the U.S., Israel and Iran is already underway, and American companies are starting to feel the effects.

Why it matters: Iran is a formidable, often difficult-to-predict cyber adversary that likely won't be afraid to go after U.S. utilities and government agency systems as the war escalates, experts warn.

The price of diesel fuel has surged above $5 a gallon in the U.S., the highest in four years, creating new inflationary pressure on anything Americans buy that relies on truck transport — which is to say, pretty much everything.

Driving the news: The average retail price of a gallon of diesel was $5.04 Tuesday, AAA says, up from $3.65 a month ago.

Joe Kent, who led the National Counterterrorism Center and was a top aide to intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard, became the first senior Trump administration official to resign over the war in Iran.

Why it matters: Kent's stinging rebuke — that Trump launched the war under pressure from Israel despite Iran posing "no imminent threat" to the U.S. — underscores the discomfort some in the "America First" camp feel about the war.

Israel assassinated two top Iranian officials in separate strikes Tuesday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said: national security chief Ali Larijani and Basij paramilitary commander Gholamreza Soleimani.

• Iranian state media later confirmed both of their deaths.

Why it matters: Larijani was the de facto leader of Iran for the first ten days of the war after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in Israel's opening strike and before his son Mojtaba was chosen as successor, Israeli officials say.

Countries across South Asia are imposing emergency measures like rationing energy, closing universities, cutting short workweeks and even changing the way crematoriums work to deal with the fallout from the Iran war.

Why it matters: Yes, the war is raising gas prices for Americans and causing a political headache for President Donald Trump — but it's also creating a deeper crisis abroad that governments and businesses are scrambling to manage.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is planning to brief a small bipartisan group of senators on the war in Iran in a classified setting Tuesday afternoon, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: Senators are hungry for real-time information on President Trump's next moves in Iran, the prospects for a diplomatic solution and thoptions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The Commerce Department announced Monday that the Trump administration's effort to export "full-stack" U.S. AI packages will enter its next phase on April 1.

Why it matters: The American AI exports program is meant to bundle the infrastructure, tools and models into ready-to-deploy AI systems for allies and partners, and has been touted as a key part of the White House's AI policy goals.

President Trump is zeroing in on a major vulnerability for Iran as the war's risks to the global economy grow increasingly serious.

Why it matters: Trump is ramping up his threats to Kharg Island, where Iran handles most of its oil, as the country maintains a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.

A forum this weekend in Tokyo with 17 Indo-Pacific nations resulted in more than $56 billion in energy-related deals with those countries, the Interior Department said Monday.

Why it matters: Trump administration officials hope the dealmaking can strengthen multinational ties as well as fulfill President Trump's "energy dominance" agenda.

A direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.

Why it matters: It's not clear how substantive the messages passed between Araghchi and Witkoff were, but it's the first known direct communication between the parties since the war started more than two weeks ago.

The Iran war has entered its third week with ballooning costs and a deepening humanitarian crisis — and no diplomatic off-ramp in sight.

The big picture: Trump and his aides have mentioned varying timelines for ending the war. But with a heavily damaged but defiant Iran stymieing trade, the U.S. remains dug in.

When Jared Kushner formed Affinity Partners in 2021, and then raised most of his first fund from Middle Eastern sovereigns, he took great pains to say that the endeavor was conceived after he left the White House.

• He bristled at suggestions of quid pro quo, but also understood that the whiff was strong enough that it had to be addressed.

UniCredit of Italy launched an unsolicited bid to increase its stake in Germany's Commerzbank to over 30%.

Why it matters: This would trigger a one-time takeover offer, per German securities law.

Two U.S. companies — Realta Fusion and X-energy — on Monday announced separate agreements with Japanese counterparts on fusion and nuclear energy.

Why it matters: The agreements show the eagerness to take advantage of Japan's technical expertise while expanding supply chain connections between the countries — a priority for the Trump administration.

The war in Iran has sent oil prices skyrocketing, scrambling an economic conflict with Russia that's been raging for more than a decade.

The big picture: It's harder to maintain tight sanctions on Russia —effectively a "cold war" — while also grappling with the economic impact from the "hot war" with Iran.

For five years in office, President Trump has operated with intuition, impulse and improvisation.

• The Iran war, now entering Week 3, is the first time Trump's style has made it impossible for him to easily talk or improvise his way out.

Why it matters: Trump could wind up trapped between his caprice and the realities of war. He expects a quick, clear victory. But unlike tariffs that can be swiftly imposed and rescinded, the war's outcome is beyond unilateral control and quick fixes. And Iran gets a say.

The U.S. holds an "extremely small" lead on China in the AI race, in part because authoritarian governments have certain advantages in deploying new technology, Anduril Industries founder Palmer Luckey said in a new episode of "The Axios Show."

Why it matters: Having Beijing dominate AI — and thus set the rules of the road globally — is considered a risk to U.S. national and economic security.

Oil prices rose over $3 per barrel Sunday in the first major trading since President Trump's threat to strike Iran's main oil export hub unless Tehran allows tankers through the Strait of Hormuz — and they remained somewhat volatile into Monday.

Why it matters: The climb shortly after the markets' opening signals that traders see no major near-term market loosening or end to a conflict that has brought an unprecedented throttling of oil flows.

The women behind "Sinners" and "KPop Demon Hunters" led a night of history-making at the 98th Academy Awards.

Why it matters: "A lot of little girls that look like me will sleep well tonight ... being on stage, getting this award will change so many girls' lives because they'll be inspired," Autumn Durald Arkapaw told reporters after winning the Best Cinematography Oscar for "Sinners."

President Trump is working to assemble a coalition of countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and hopes to announce it later this week, four sources tell Axios.

• Trump is also weighing a seizure of Iran's critical oil depot on Kharg Island — a move that would require U.S. boots on the ground — if tankers remain bottled up in the Persian Gulf, U.S. officials say.

Why it matters: Oil and gas prices are rising as Iran's blockade of the Gulf's narrow strait drags on, choking off a significant share of the world's crude supply.

FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened to revoke broadcasters' licenses over Iran war coverage, a day after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth singled out CNN and rooted for a friendlier owner.

The big picture: President Trump has taken credit for "reshaping" the American media landscape via intimidation, regulatory leverage and policy pressure that's cast a shadow over newsroom autonomy.

President Trump said Sunday he may delay his visit to China this month and urged the country to help the U.S. reopen the Strait of Hormuz that Iran's effectively shut during the war.

The big picture: Trump made the comments during an interview with the Financial Times that included him issuing warnings to Iran and NATO, as the effectively shuttered strait that's a key commercial shipping channel and high oil prices weigh heavily on his administration.