Axios

Democrats are barreling toward an identity crisis: When Donald Trump is gone, they're not sure what they'll stand for.

• Top party strategists are warning they can't win back the White House in 2028 by coasting on voters' dissatisfaction with the president and MAGA.

Why it matters: Democrats expect to pick up congressional seats in this year's midterms by riding an anti-Trump wave — and history suggests they're probably right. But some in the party worry they could learn the wrong lessons from victory.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday there are "no guarantees" when gas prices will fall, acknowledging the Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe.

The big picture: Administration officials are adamant the pump price shock will be short-lived pain for a geopolitical gain. But the spike in prices threatens to become a political liability.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's pledge of "no quarter, no mercy for our enemies" violates a bright‑line ban in the laws of war, legal experts say.

Why it matters: International humanitarian law explicitly forbids declaring that "no quarter will be given" or threatening to fight on that basis, treating it as a war crime on par with targeting fighters who are wounded or attempting to surrender.

Anduril Industries founder Palmer Luckey backs the Pentagon's decision to blacklist Anthropic — and says if it were up to him, he would have reacted even more forcefully.

• He made the comments in an interview with Colin Demarest on "The Axios Show," our series featuring top Axios reporters interviewing newsmakers shaping politics, business, tech, and culture.

Why it matters: The Pentagon's designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is a move historically reserved for foreign adversaries. It means that other companies who do business with the Pentagon may have to cut ties with the AI giant.

If you predicted the U.S. would fall into recession due to the latest headlines, the last few years have made you look dumb. Through interest rate increases, armed conflict in Europe and a trade war, it has proven stunningly resilient.

The big picture: America's economic superpower has been its scale, diversity and adaptability that have allowed it to continue chugging along whenever crises arise.

• Now, the Iran war will test again how much the U.S. economy can absorb without a meaningful downturn.

Cheap, mass-produced drones have permanently changed the face of warfare.

• Without them, Russia's overwhelming manpower and firepower advantage would grind Ukraine into dust.
• Without them, the Houthis are a ragtag militia in Yemen — not a force that brought global shipping to its knees.
• Without them, a sanctioned, isolated Iran couldn't inflict nearly as much damage to the most powerful military in world history.

Why it matters: Size no longer guarantees victory. Any nation, any proxy, any rebel group with access to cash and commercial components can now bleed a superpower slowly, expensively and without a clean answer.

Polititicans must commit to tailored, economically focused messaging to win Latino voters in the 2026 midterms, Univision executive Ignacio Meyer said Saturday at Axios House at SXSW.

Why it matters: Latinos — the up-for-grabs voting force that could decide 2026's razor-thin congressional battles — propelled President Trump's 2024 victory with record GOP support, about 48% nationally.

President Trump claimed on Saturday the U.S. and several other countries will send war ships to the Gulf to reopen commercial shipping in the strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters: The attacks in the strait of Hormuz brought commercial shipping to and from the Gulf to an almost complete halt, dramatically disrupted oil exports from the region and destabilized global energy markets.

The French government has drafted a proposal to end the war in Lebanon that would require the Lebanese government to take the unprecedented step of recognizing Israel, three sources familiar with the details told Axios.

• Israel and the U.S. are reviewing the proposal.

Why it matters: The French framework could help de-escalate the war, prevent a prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, increase international pressure to disarm Hezbollah and open the door to a historic peace deal.

The U.S. lacks the "political will" and popular consensus to put boots on the ground in Iran after decades of "adventures" in the Middle East, Anduril Industries founder Palmer Luckey said on "The Axios Show."

Why it matters: Three weeks into the Iran war, the U.S. is sending thousands of Marines to the region, with growing uncertainty about what actually comes next.

Israel is planning to significantly expand its ground operation in Lebanon, aiming to seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure, Israeli and U.S. officials say.

Why it matters: This could be the largest Israeli ground invasion of its northern neighbor since 2006, dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran.