Trump came close to winning Latino vote in '24 — Pew analysis
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President Trump won a higher percentage of the Latino vote in 2024 than previously believed and came within striking distance of capturing a historic majority of those voters, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of the election results.
Why it matters: The analysis confirms what early exit polls hinted: Kamala Harris dramatically underperformed previous Democratic presidential candidates among Latinos, a rapidly growing and once-solidly Democratic voting bloc that has taken a big swing toward Republicans.
The big picture: Pew's analysis of election data shows that Trump won 48% of Latino voters — a group that had soundly rejected him in 2020 and 2016 — and that it was a crucial factor in his victory.
- The findings challenge claims by some left-leaning Hispanic political operatives that the early exit polls — which suggested Harris' percentage of the Latino vote was in the mid-50s, still a decline for a Democrat — were incorrect, and that her losses among Latinos were minimal.
- Pew says the exit polls were off, but that the results were even worse for Harris — 51% of the Latino vote.
- The new data also show that Trump rode back into office with a more ethnically and racially diverse coalition than previously known.
By the numbers: Trump's showing among Latinos was the best performance by a GOP presidential candidate in modern times, according to an Axios review of past elections dating back to 1960.
- Joe Biden took 61% of the Latino vote compared to Trump's 36% in 2020, a 25-point advantage.
- Hillary Clinton received 66% of the Latino vote to Trump's 28%, a 38-point advantage.
What they're saying: "This is no longer a wake-up call" for Democrats. "This is a damn get-your-act-together call," said Sisto Abeyta, a New Mexico-based Democratic political consultant of the Nevada-based firm TriStrategies.
- Abeyta said Democrats have been bleeding support from Hispanic men for some time by focusing on abortion and environmental issues instead of the economy.
- "Of course, Hispanic men want to breathe clean air. Many also work in the oil industry and want their jale (slang in Spanish for job)."
- Abeyta believes Democrats also have been listening too much to D.C.-based consultants and have lost touch the priorities of many Latino voters.
The intrigue: Pew's findings indicate that a growing number of Latinos looked beyond the racist rhetoric Trump used to describe unauthorized immigrants in an election in which the economy and inflation topped voters' concerns.
- The analysis confirmed that Trump won a majority of Hispanic men (50-48) while Harris won a majority of Latinas (52-46).
- Hispanics were a growing share of Trump's support while white non-Latino voters were a declining share, or a smaller share, said Mark Lopez, Pew's director of race and ethnicity research.
Zoom out: A larger share of Asian Americans and Black Americans voted for Trump compared to his two previous presidential runs, making up a larger portion of his winning 2024 coalition.
- Meanwhile, white American voters made up 78% of Trump's coalition, a decline from 88% in 2016, according to Pew.
Harris owed much of her political rise to Latino voters in California who supported her in races for state attorney general and a U.S. Senate seat.
- She wasn't able to translate that into national Latino support.
Between the lines: Democrats' strategy of giving money to nonprofits around the country to get out the Latino vote doesn't appear to work anymore, said Mike Madrid, a California GOP political consultant and frequent Trump critic.
- "They don't have a get-out-the-vote problem. They have a policy problem," said Madrid, author of "The Latino Century: How America's Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy."
- Madrid said Democrats are failing to address affordability and inflation at a time when non-college-educated Latino voters are identifying more with white working-class voters.
Pew's study also punctures the notion among some Democrats that higher voter turnout would have enabled Harris to defeat Trump.
- The analysis suggests that higher turnout likely would have increased Trump's margin of victory.
- Among all 2020 nonvoters (including those who were too young and ineligible to vote in 2020), 14% supported Trump in 2024 while 12% supported Harris, the Pew study concluded.
What we're watching: Early polls suggest Trump's support among Latino voters has dropped since November because of his tariffs and some of his deportation policies that are ensnaring U.S.-born Latinos.
- The run-up to the 2026 midterms could give clues as to whether Trump's policies have undermined Latinos' shift toward the GOP — and given Democrats an opening to recapture voters who've been turning away from the party.
Methodology: Pew's report is based on the responses of 8,942 U.S. citizens ages 18 and older who are members of the Center's American Trends Panel (ATP). The report verified their turnout in the five general elections from 2016 to 2024 using commercial voter files that collect publicly available official state turnout records.
- The post-election ATP surveys used in this report were conducted Nov. 29 to Dec. 12, 2016; Nov. 7 to 16, 2018; Nov. 12 to 17, 2020; Nov. 16 to 27, 2022; and Nov. 12 to 17, 2024. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, age, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and many other characteristics.
- The margin of sampling error is ±1.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
