Hispanic groups challenge data on Trump's Latino inroads
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President Trump speaks during a roundtable discussion with local Latino leaders at Trump National Doral Miami in Doral, Fla. Photo: Matias J. Ocner/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images
Some Latino left-leaning advocacy groups and pollsters are pushing back on exit polls showing President-elect Donald Trump made historic inroads with Latino voters.
Why it matters: Latino voters, a significant part of the Democratic coalition since 1960, shifted right in the 2024 election, according to exit polls and an Axios analysis of early election results, causing panic among some Democrats about the future of the party.
Catch up quick: Trump was backed by 46% of Latino voters, surpassing Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush to win the biggest share of the national Latino vote by a Republican presidential contender in modern times, a new exit poll shows.
- In Michigan, Trump won 58% of Latino voters compared to just 39% for Harris, according to the Edison poll.
Zoom in: Trump beat Harris 51-49 in Hidalgo County, in South Texas — a Mexican American stronghold that Biden won with 58% of the vote in 2020.
- In San Diego's eighth council district, which is roughly 75% Latino, Trump got 40% of the vote, local election analyst Mason Herron points out. Four years ago, he got 27.5% of the vote there.
What they're saying: "The national exit polls are wrong about Latinos in general and Latino men in particular," Matt Barreto, co-founder of BSP Research, told reporters Tuesday during a virtual call with left-leaning groups.
- He says there was no "valid evidence" that a majority of Latino men voted for Trump, despite multiple exit polls that showed they did. Barreto said the exit polls' samples are wrong.
- Barreto argued his poll, which found 56% of Latino men supported Harris, was more accurate than other exit polls because he had a larger sample size and it was conducted in multiple languages.
- "The mainstream exit polls got Hispanic candidate support wrong, and that is a recurring sampling issue," Clarissa Martinez, vice president of UnidosUS' Latino Vote Initiative, said in a statement.
The other side: "Vote results support the exit poll result that Latinos supported Donald Trump more than they did in 2020," Edison Research vice president Randy Brown said in an email to Axios.
- "Our exit poll result for the national survey is also backed up by our state results in states with a large Latino population" such as Florida, Nevada and Texas.
California GOP consultant Mike Madrid, who supported Harris, tells Axios that the groups dismissing exit polls are losing credibility and are in denial about what the data has been showing for 10 years.
- "They do this every election and come out with their own poll that they say are better than the exit polls. But they've gotten the last five of the last six elections wrong."
- Madrid said since 2014, the GOP has been making aggressive inroads with Latinos by focusing on the economy, and Democrats' previous focus on pushing for comprehensive immigration reform hasn't kept Hispanic voters.
The bottom line: It's too early to say if 2024 is the norm or a blip for Latino voters, University of Houston political science professor Jeronimo Cortina tells Axios.
- In some majority-Hispanic counties, voters who picked Trump over Harris also cast ballots for Democrats in congressional and local races.
- Cortina says he'll have to see a few more election cycles before determining if this is a historic realignment or a stern warning to Democrats.
Editor's note: This story has been corrected to state that pollster Matt Barreto's poll found that 56% of Latino men supported Harris (not 51%). It has also been updated with comment from Edison Research.
Axios San Diego's Andrew Keatts contributed to this story.
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