Axios

Polititicans must commit to tailored, economically focused messaging to win Latino voters in the 2026 midterms, Univision executive Ignacio Meyer said Saturday at Axios House at SXSW.

Why it matters: Latinos — the up-for-grabs voting force that could decide 2026's razor-thin congressional battles — propelled President Trump's 2024 victory with record GOP support, about 48% nationally.

President Trump claimed on Saturday the U.S. and several other countries will send war ships to the Gulf to reopen commercial shipping in the strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters: The attacks in the strait of Hormuz brought commercial shipping to and from the Gulf to an almost complete halt, dramatically disrupted oil exports from the region and destabilized global energy markets.

The French government has drafted a proposal to end the war in Lebanon that would require the Lebanese government to take the unprecedented step of recognizing Israel, three sources familiar with the details told Axios.

• Israel and the U.S. are reviewing the proposal.

Why it matters: The French framework could help de-escalate the war, prevent a prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, increase international pressure to disarm Hezbollah and open the door to a historic peace deal.

The U.S. lacks the "political will" and popular consensus to put boots on the ground in Iran after decades of "adventures" in the Middle East, Anduril Industries founder Palmer Luckey said on "The Axios Show."

Why it matters: Three weeks into the Iran war, the U.S. is sending thousands of Marines to the region, with growing uncertainty about what actually comes next.

Israel is planning to significantly expand its ground operation in Lebanon, aiming to seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure, Israeli and U.S. officials say.

Why it matters: This could be the largest Israeli ground invasion of its northern neighbor since 2006, dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran.

President Trump said the U.S. military conducted a massive strike on Kharg Island in Iran - the center of the country's oil exports.

Why it matters: The strategic Island hosts Iran key oil export facilities. 80-90 percent of Iranian oil is exported from the Island.

President Trump on Friday invoked a Cold War-era law in a bid to boost oil production off Southern California's coast and meet demand in the wake of the Iran war.

Why it matters: The president's signing of an executive order allowing use of the Defense Production Act shows he's trying to employ a variety of tools to try to tamp down the oil price shocks set off by the war.

Groups linked to AIPAC are employing an eyebrow-raising tactic to sink pro-Palestinian progressives in Democratic congressional primaries: Going after their leftist bona fides.

Why it matters: It is a telling indication of what the ruthlessly pragmatic pro-Israel organization sees as a winning message with Democratic voters who have grown increasingly hostile towards their brand.

In a phone call with President Trump this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed moving Iran's enriched uranium to Russia as part of a deal to end the war.

• Trump turned him down, sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Securing Iran's 450 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium — convertible to weapons grade within weeks, and enough for more than 10 nuclear bombs — is one of the U.S. and Israel's key war objectives.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Friday that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is "wounded and likely disfigured."

Why it matters: Hegseth's claim was the first official statement by the Trump administration about Khamenei's health since he was named the country's leader.

The Treasury Department made it easier Friday for U.S. businesses and farmers to buy Venezuelan fertilizer and oil as their prices rise because of the Iran war, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The bottleneck of tankers in the Persian Gulf because of Iranian attacks has caused the costs of oil and fertilizer, a petrochemical product, to jump. It threatens to spike inflation and raise the cost of food in the U.S.

Travelers can expect airlines to raise ticket prices, idle planes and implement fuel surcharges on certain flights if energy prices remain elevated, according to industry analysts.

The big picture: Jet fuel costs — which account for about 30% of airline expenses, according to Deutsche Bank — have spiked since the Iran war began.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is sending an amphibious assault ship, the USS Tripoli, and its Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, a senior U.S. official confirmed to Axios on Friday.

Why it matters: The deployment will add thousands of Marines, several warships, and F-35 fighter jets to support those already in the region, the U.S. official said.

Worries are growing that Iran is deploying mines — one of its most potent and disruptive weapons — in the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters: The use of naval mines would likely result in fatal attacks on commercial shipping vessels and closure of the Strait, which would place further strain on the global economy if oil shipments were halted.

The economy was flashing stagflation signals — tepid growth and high inflation — even before the Iran conflict added an oil shock to the mix.

Why it matters: What happens when geopolitical turmoil clogs up the world's oil supply chain, against a backdrop of a U.S. economy losing momentum amid sticky inflation?

• We're about to find out.

All six crew members died after a U.S. refueling tanker aircraft crashed on Thursday in Iraq, U.S. Central Command said on Friday.

The big picture: The crash brings the U.S. death toll to 13 as President Trump's Iran war nears the two-week mark.

Since the war started, the S&P 500 is down only a smidge off its record high.

Why it matters: That may seem surprising, considering the roller coaster of market volatility we're riding, plus the sharp rise in oil and gas prices.

The Iran war is drawing fresh scrutiny to American crude oil exports as a way to curb skyrocketing fuel prices.

The big picture: The U.S. has become one of the world's largest oil exporters since a law changed a decade ago allowing crude to flow beyond American borders.

President Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting Wednesday that Iran is "about to surrender," according to three officials from G7 countries briefed on the contents of the call.

• 24 hours later, Iran's new supreme leader issued his first public statement vowing to keep fighting.

Why it matters: Trump is as confident about the war's outcome in private as he is in public. But his assessment is colliding with a more complex reality on the ground.

The U.S. Navy will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, "perhaps with an international coalition," as "soon as it is militarily possible," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Sky News interview broadcast Thursday.

Why it matters: The International Energy Agency said Thursday the global oil market is facing "the largest supply disruption" in history due to the Iran war, which Bessent told Sky News has cost the U.S. $11 billion thus far.

Congressional Democrats and Republicans clashed furiously on social media Thursday night over blatantly anti-Muslim posts by right-wing House members and senators.

Why it matters: Republicans are growing more emboldened than ever in their expressions of unapologetic Islamophobia in recent weeks in response to a series of violent attacks on U.S. soil amid the Iran war.

An armed suspect is dead after ramming a vehicle on Thursday into Temple Israel Synagogue in Detroit's suburbs, according to law enforcement officials.

The latest: The suspect in the West Bloomfield attack was identified as a 41-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen, who was born in Lebanon, per a Department of Homeland Security statement emailed to outlets including Axios Thursday evening.