Scoop: Dozens of IRGC members flee Lebanon, Israeli officials say

• Israeli officials say the IRGC's role in Hezbollah's military planning grew substantially over the last two years, as Israel systematically killed off many of the militia's most experienced commanders — leaving Tehran to fill the void.
• Hezbollah's degraded ranks were reluctant to open a new front with Israel, but ultimately joined the war on March 1 under strong pressure from Iran, an Israeli official claimed.

Between the lines: While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's directive to the Israel Defense Forces has been to stay focused on Iran, the Hezbollah front has expanded significantly in recent days.

Driving the news: Since the war began Saturday, Israel has killed the commander of the IRGC's Quds Force Lebanon unit in a strike in Tehran and his deputy in a strike in Beirut.

• On Tuesday, the IDF issued a public ultimatum to Iranian regime representatives still in Lebanon, warning it would "target them wherever they are found" if they didn't leave within 24 hours.

Behind the scenes: Israeli defense officials say several dozen IRGC members have left Lebanon since the warning — some of whom had been operating out of the Iranian embassy in Beirut.

• A small contingent has stayed behind to maintain the Quds Force presence and liaise with Hezbollah.
• "We expect the IRGC exodus from Lebanon to continue over the next several days," an Israeli defense official said.

The big picture: In a dramatic and unprecedented move on Thursday, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam ordered the government to take "the necessary measures to prevent any military or security activity carried out by members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Lebanon, in preparation for their deportation," according to Information Minister Paul Morcos.

• The IRGC has maintained a significant presence in Lebanon for more than 40 years, dating to its first deployment there in 1982.
• An Israeli defense official said the Lebanese government's move appears to be a deliberate effort to distance itself from Hezbollah and Iran — and to shield Lebanese state infrastructure and the army from becoming Israeli targets.

State of play: Hezbollah entered the war Sunday with a small barrage of rockets and drones but has since dramatically scaled up its attacks, becoming the primary group now launching strikes against Israel.

• Its rockets carry shorter range and smaller warheads than Iranian ballistic missiles.
• "As a result of IDF and U.S. armed forces operations, ballistic missile launches from Iran toward Israel and other countries have been constantly decreasing," IDF international spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani told Axios.
• "Simultaneously, Hezbollah has expanded its firing of rockets and UAVs toward Israel, to a point where the amounts are much larger than those being fired from Iran."

As Hezbollah's attacks have expanded, so has Israel's response.

• On Thursday, the IDF ordered residents of Beirut's southern suburbs — a Hezbollah stronghold — to evacuate. Tens of thousands of civilians have fled their homes.

What to watch: Since reaching a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in November 2024 ceasefire, Israel has occupied five hilltops inside southern Lebanon near the border.

• In recent days, the IDF sent ground troops in to seize eight additional positions roughly half a mile from the border, calling it a defensive measure to prevent Hezbollah from launching a ground invasion or targeting Israeli villages with anti-tank missiles.
• As with the original five positions, it remains unclear whether Israel intends to withdraw — or under what conditions it would.