Lebanon asks U.S. for direct peace talks with Israel to end fighting

• So far, the Lebanese army has refused to take meaningful action against the Iran-backed militant group.
• And with Washington uninterested in mediating and Israel determined to use the moment to dismantle Hezbollah, a full-scale escalation appears increasingly likely.

Driving the news: Hezbollah entered the fighting on the second day of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, firing rockets and drones toward Israel and intensifying its attacks in the days that followed.

• Israel responded with massive airstrikes — including in Beirut — and ground incursions into southern Lebanon, expanding its military footprint in the country.
• Hezbollah has since engaged Israeli forces in guerrilla warfare on the ground.
• More than 600,000 Lebanese civilians have fled the south. Beirut's southern suburbs, considered a Hezbollah stronghold, have been nearly emptied after the Israel Defense Forces warned of impending strikes.

Behind the scenes: Last week, the Lebanese government approached Tom Barrack — the U.S. ambassador to Turkey — and asked him to mediate with Israel, according to a U.S. official, an Israeli official, and three sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

• The Israeli official said the Lebanese government also claimed some Hezbollah members were open to a deal.
• In an unprecedented step, Lebanon proposed holding immediate direct talks with Israel at the ministerial level in Cyprus.
• Barrack's response was blunt: "Stop with the bullsh*t" on disarming Hezbollah, or there's nothing to discuss. "If it's not real action about Hezbollah's weapons, there's no point," a source said.

Sources say the Israeli government rejected the outreach outright, signaling it was too late. Its focus is on eliminating Hezbollah.

The context: Barrack is also the U.S. envoy to Syria and Iraq. While he worked the Lebanon file last year, he hasn't been engaged on the issue for several months.

• The U.S. diplomat most recently handling Lebanon was Morgan Ortagus, who left the government in January.
• The current U.S. ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa, is the senior American official formally responsible for Lebanon — but has limited access to decision-makers in Washington.
• The result is a Lebanon portfolio with no clear owner at a moment of acute crisis.

Between the lines: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri were furious when Hezbollah joined the war — having received assurances from the group's political leadership for weeks that it would stay out of any conflict between Israel and Iran, a source said.

• The episode made clear that Hezbollah's political arm doesn't have real control over its military wing — and that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps holds decisive influence over the group's actions.

• That realization drove two historic and unprecedented decisions: banning Hezbollah's military arm and ordering the deportation of IRGC members from Lebanese soil.

Yes, but: Lebanese Army commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal has resisted the government's push, refusing to deploy troops against Hezbollah while active fighting continues, the sources said.

• His stance has fueled tensions with Salam and drawn pressure from both Democrats and Republicans in Washington on Aoun to fire him, according to current and former U.S. officials.
• "The Lebanese military remains unwilling — some say unable — to enforce the government's decision outlawing Hezbollah's military and security activities," said Firas Maksad, managing director for Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group.

What to watch: Lebanon's government is deeply frustrated that it is being largely ignored by the Trump administration. Without active U.S. mediation, the sources say, there is no path to peace talks.

• "There is no interest from the Trump administration to deal with Lebanon," one source with knowledge of the issue told Axios.
• "Nobody in Washington is taking their calls," said a former U.S. official.
• "The Lebanese government was warned and warned and warned this would happen if they don't take action against Hezbollah," said a third source, also a former U.S. official.

What's next: Lebanon is launching a diplomatic initiative to pursue direct senior-level negotiations with Israel, Maksad said — aimed at building a post-war order in which Hezbollah no longer dominates the country.

• "The Lebanese state will not, perhaps cannot, create the military conditions to get there. But it will meet Israel and the U.S. at the table once the guns go silent."