Scoop: French plan to end Lebanon war includes recognition of Israel
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Macron during a G7 meeting last week. Photo: Gonzalo Fuentes / Pool / AFP via Getty Images
The French government has drafted a proposal to end the war in Lebanon that would require the Lebanese government to take the unprecedented step of recognizing Israel, three sources familiar with the details told Axios.
- Israel and the U.S. are reviewing the proposal.
Why it matters: The French framework could help de-escalate the war, prevent a prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, increase international pressure to disarm Hezbollah and open the door to a historic peace deal.
- The Lebanese government has accepted the plan as a basis for peace talks, deeply alarmed that the renewed war — triggered by Hezbollah's rocket attacks on Israel — could devastate the country.
Driving the news: Israel is planning to significantly expand its ground operation in Lebanon, aiming to seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure, Israeli and U.S. officials say.
- This could be the largest Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon since 2006, dragging the country to the center of the escalating war with Iran.
- "We are going to do what we did in Gaza," a senior Israeli official said, referring to the flattening of buildings Israel says Hezbollah uses to store weapons and launch attacks.
Behind the scenes: Under the French proposal, Israel and Lebanon would open negotiations — with support from the U.S. and France — on a "political declaration" to be agreed within one month.
- The negotiations would begin at the level of senior diplomats before moving to senior political leaders. French officials want the talks to take place in Paris, the sources said.
- The sources say the proposed declaration would include Lebanon's initial recognition of Israel and a commitment by the Lebanese government to respect Israel's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Israel and Lebanon would also reaffirm their commitment to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war, as well as the 2024 ceasefire agreement.
- The Lebanese government would commit to preventing attacks against Israel from its territory and to implementing its own plan to disarm Hezbollah and ban its military activity.
Zoom in: The French proposal calls for the Lebanese Armed Forces to redeploy south of the Litani River. In parallel, Israel would withdraw within a month from territories it has captured since the start of the current war, the sources said.
- Israel and Lebanon would commit to using the U.S.-led monitoring mechanism to address ceasefire violations and imminent threats.
- UNIFIL peacekeepers would verify Hezbollah's disarmament south of the Litani River, while a coalition of countries mandated by the U.N. Security Council would oversee Hezbollah's disarmament in the rest of Lebanon.
What to watch: The proposal would have Lebanon declare that it is prepared to open negotiations on a permanent non-aggression agreement with Israel.
- Such an agreement would be signed within two months and would end the formal state of war between the two countries, which has been ongoing since Israel's founding in 1948, the sources said.
- The agreement would commit Israel and Lebanon to resolving disputes peacefully and to establishing security arrangements.
After the non-aggression agreement is signed, Israel would withdraw from five positions in southern Lebanon that IDF forces have controlled since November 2024.
- The final phase of the French plan envisions demarcating the border between Israel and Lebanon — and between Lebanon and Syria — by the end of 2026.
- A spokesperson for French President Emmanuel Macron did not respond to a request for comment.
State of play: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has already appointed a negotiating team for potential talks with Israel.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tasked former minister Ron Dermer with managing the Lebanese file during the war, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.
- Dermer will handle contacts with the Trump administration and lead any negotiations with the Lebanese government if direct talks begin in the coming weeks, the officials said.
Yes, but: It remains unclear who inside the Trump administration is leading the Lebanon portfolio at this moment of acute crisis.
- Sources with knowledge of the situation said one of Dermer's first tasks will be to coordinate with the Trump administration on who will handle the issue and serve as the U.S. mediator between the parties.
- While the French proposal could serve as a basis for negotiations, Lebanese and Israeli officials say an agreement will be difficult without strong American leadership.
