Oscars 2026: A two-movie race and plenty of suspense
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Best Picture will likely come down to "Sinners" versus "One Battle After Another." Photos: courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
The Academy Awards arrive Sunday with a tremendous amount of suspense and uncertainty, which is just the way we like it.
Why it matters: Tight races and a chance at Oscars history have generated a level of hype we haven't seen in several years, at a time when the film industry continues to evolve.
Catch up quick: Awards season began with Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" as a clear frontrunner.
- Yes, but: "Sinners" is nipping at its heels for best picture.
Sam and Troy are split on who should win the night's biggest award, a two-horse race that will define the ceremony, which airs at 7pm on ABC and Hulu.
Best picture
Troy's take: This is a coin flip that reminds me of 2017 when "Moonlight" caught "La La Land" in one of the biggest Oscar surprises ever.
- "Sinners" should and will win. Let's just hope they don't fumble the announcement this time.
Sam's take: Momentum is undoubtedly on the side of "Sinners," but "One Battle After Another" is the best movie of the year for me, bar none.
- Exhilarating action; indelible performances teeming with humor and heart; virtuosic cinematography; a propulsive score; thematic density that invites viewers to think more deeply and urgently about the world.
Best director
Troy's take: Ryan Coogler ("Sinners") should become the first Black director to win this award.
- However, I think voters will reward Paul Thomas Anderson ("One Battle After Another"), who is arguably the best filmmaker of his generation.
Sam's take: Anderson will win the award, and should.
- Academy voters will split the top two categories, as they did six times between 2013 and 2022.
Best actor
Troy's take: Michael B. Jordan ("Sinners") should and will win for playing two distinct, memorable characters who both shine in some of the film's most captivating moments.
- Though Joel Edgerton would have my vote if he were nominated for "Train Dreams."
Sam's take: This is one of the strongest fields in years, and it doesn't even include Edgerton or Jessie Plemons ("Bugonia"). Still, Jordan appears to have the edge going into Sunday.
- While I wish voters would reward Leonardo DiCaprio's sensational work in "OBAA" — the funniest performance of his career — I'd pick Jordan over Timothée Chalamet, whose press tour has made him one of the least likable nominees in recent memory.
Best actress
Troy's take: Jessie Buckley is this year's surest bet.
- It's hard to argue against her staggering, emotional performance that carried "Hamnet."
Sam's take: Presumably, most voters cast their ballots before suffering through "The Bride!"
Best supporting actor
Troy's take: I think a big "Sinners" push leads to Delroy Lindo getting a surprise win.
- I'm rooting for Lindo, but must admit Sean Penn steals the show in "One Battle After Another."
Sam's take: Lindo was my favorite performance in "Sinners," but I think he's a pretty distant long-shot.
- That is, unless Penn and Stellan Skarsgard ("Sentimental Value") cancel each other out in voters' minds.
Best supporting actress
Troy's take: Amy Madigan gets the acting veteran vote, and I approve.
- I couldn't get her performance in "Weapons" out of my nightmares for weeks.
Sam's take: Teyana Taylor ("One Battle After Another") was the early favorite, but Madigan has surged.
- Close calls all night! Bring on the drama!