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National

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) may not have announced that he's running as a third-party candidate for president. But he's acting like it.

Driving the news: Manchin took time from his busy Senate schedule to tell a gathering of Iowa business and community leaders Wednesday in D.C. that he’s "fiscally responsible and socially compassionate" — another hint that he’s considering a potential third-party presidential bid.

Back in the Senate, he released a statement vowing to oppose all President Biden's EPA nominees over the administration's "radical climate agenda."

Manchin's recent no-mercy campaign against Biden could be related to his potential re-election bid in deep-red West Virginia — but it's also a sign of just how far he's willing to go to blow up the president's plans.

Why it matters: Iowa Democrats are furious with their national party for stripping their first-in-the-nation status on the presidential calendar. But Iowa voters still pride themselves on their ability — if not their right — to judge candidates up close and in-person.

Manchin played to that vanity, explaining his approach to leadership and legislation.

"I believe the government should be your partner. I'm not your provider," he told approximately 170 members of the Greater Des Moines Partnership.

"When people say, 'What's your politics?' I say I'm fiscally responsible and socially compassionate, which I think most Americans are,” he said in a 30-minute speech.

Between the lines: Manchin, perhaps his party's most endangered incumbent, didn’t explicitly tell the assembled Iowans he was leaving his party and running for president as an independent.

Asked by Axios about his presidential ambitions, Manchin said. "Honest to God, my main concern: How do we save this nation? How do we bring people together to protect the quality of life, the values that we've had that we were raised with? That's all.”

“You have got to fight for the reasonable, responsible middle and no one is doing that,” he said. “There's no options.”

The big picture: The country is hurtling toward a rematch between Biden and former President Trump, which polls overwhelmingly show most Americans don't want.

The group No Labels is raising money to build a presidential launchpad for a bipartisan ticket, with plans for their own nominating convention in Dallas in April 2024 and a strategy to get onto the ballot in all 50 states.

"We like to say one-ticket, one-time. This is not a third party, it’s one Democrat and one Republican. Everyone will have a seat at the table," Nancy Jacobson, the founder and CEO of No Labels, told Axios. “This is an insurance policy for a unique American moment."

"Right now we know people don’t want a rematch. There’s a huge opening, the likes of which we have never seen," Jacobson said. "If Biden moves to the center, there may not be an opening," she added. 

What we're watching: Biden's polling numbers are at his presidency lows, with public approval at 40%, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

That's higher than a weekend poll from ABC News/The Washington Post, which had Biden at 36% approval and losing to Trump.

The other side: Prominent Democrats, including the centrist group Third Way, are horrified by the prospect of a third-party candidate and insist it would throw the election to the Republican nominee — potentially Trump.

The third-party campaigns of Ralph Nader in 2000 and Jill Stein 2016 are a raw memory for many Democrats, who blame them for the victories of George W. Bush and Trump, respectively.

"No Labels is arguing that they won’t act as a spoiler, but our view is that the risk is enormously high,” said Matt Bennett, the co-founder of Third Way. "And that’s the only impact they can have on the race because they can’t possibly win."

“We would hope and urge that Manchin makes it clear that he’s not interested in this third-party bid because it has absolutely no chance of success,” he said. “The sooner he makes that clear, the better.”

Zoom in: No Labels has a close relationship with Manchin and frequently invites him onto their conference calls with donors to expound on the issues of the day.

Last week, he sounded like a candidate on a No Labels call, according to Puck News, which obtained a recording of the conversation.

Manchin did not rule out joining a No Labels ticket on "Meet the Press" last month — but stressed he "would never intend to be a spoiler of anything."

Scoop: Manchin flirts with Iowa voters

Manchin is increasingly acting like a third-party candidate for president.

Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Joe Manchin

Politics & Policy

The prospect of a U.S. debt default is scarier now than it's ever been, said TPG chief Jon Winkelried, speaking at the Axios BFD event in San Francisco on Wednesday.

What Winkelried's not scared of: Artificial intelligence displacing the jobs of financial sector analysts and associates.

What he's saying: "Yes, it scares me in a way," he said, adding that when the prospect of a default occurred in previous cycles, the assumption was that Washington wouldn't actually let it happen. 

"The political process has gotten more heated, less rational. I worry that maybe there is more of a willingness to go to the brink. I’m a little more concerned than last time."

"AI may be a tool that helps... but there's still a lot of creative, intellectual energy around these issues. I have no doubt there will be analysts and associates at banks" even as AI adoption grows, he said.

Background: TPG, which started out as the leveraged buyout firm Texas Pacific Group in 1992, is now a publicly traded alternative asset manager with $135 billion in assets under management. 

The company went public in January 2022; a day later the market tanked — and then kept tanking. 

"If we were going to go public the next day, we probably would not have gone public," he said. "We felt quite fortunate that we came in under the wire."

Of note: Winkelried, a former top Goldman Sachs banker, said TPG is eager to get into the private credit market. Whether the firm would grow the business organically or acquire a private credit business, Winkelried would not say. 

"There's different ways of doing it — we’re open minded either way. We’re focused on it."

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TPG's Winkelried says he's scared of debt default, not AI

"The political process has gotten more heated, less rational."

Jon Winkelried, TPG CEO, and Axios' Dan Primack at the BFD Event in San Francisco. Photo: Michael Flaherty

Axios BFD

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Axios Events

Embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) pleaded not guilty Wednesday to 13 federal criminal charges, U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of New York spokesperson Danielle Hass told Axios.

Driving the news: Santos was released on a $500,000 bond, per Hass, after he was charged earlier Wednesday for alleged wire fraud, money laundering, theft of public funds and lying to Congress.

U.S. Attorney Breon Peace said that the indictment, filed in the Eastern District of New York on Wednesday, "seeks to hold Santos accountable for various alleged fraudulent schemes and brazen misrepresentations." 

It included seven counts of wire fraud, three counts of money laundering, one count of theft of public funds and two counts of making materially false statements to the U.S. House, per the Department of Justice.

Santos surrendered to authorities and was taken into custody at a federal courthouse in Long Island earlier Wednesday.

What he's saying: Santos, speaking to reporters after his arraignment, called his arrest a "witch hunt" and said that he is planning to run for re-election.

"I will prove myself innocent and then we’ll move from there and re-election is a very far time away from now," he said.

Zoom in: Santos allegedly executed a scheme, per the indictment, to "defraud supporters of his candidacy for the House" by inducing supporters to donate to a company "under the false pretense that the money would be used to support [Santos'] candidacy."

Instead, the money was used on personal expenses, including luxury designer clothing and credit card payments, per the indictment. 

The indictment also says that Santos in June 2020, during the early stages of the pandemic, applied for government assistance in New York, despite being employed by a Florida-based investment firm, where he earned a salary of about $120,000 a year. 

He is accused of efforts to mislead the House and public about his finances in connection with his two runs for congressional office.

During his first — unsuccessful — House campaign in May 2020, Santos allegedly overstated income from one company and failed to disclose the salary he was receiving from the investment firm. 

He also allegedly overstated his income and assets during his second House campaign in September 2022. 

The big picture: Santos has faced calls to resign from members of his own party, including all his fellow New York GOP freshmen, over revelations that he fabricated vast swaths of his resume, background and personal finances.

Other House Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated over his continued presence in the conference amid the criminal charges.

After multiple reports surfaced Tuesday that he was facing federal charges, Santos told AP in a brief interview: "This is news to me."

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has largely stood by Santos, did not call for his' resignation following the indictment. "He will go through his time in trial and let's find out how the outcome is," the California Republican said.

McCarthy indicated Tuesday, before the indictment was unsealed, that Santos should be able to vote in Congress while awaiting a trial.   

"If a person is indicted, they’re not on committees, they have the right to vote, but they have to go to trial."

He has previously said Santos would be removed from Congress if an investigation found he broke the law. 

What's next: Santos' next court appearance is scheduled for June 30 before U.S. District Judge Joanna Seybert, per Hass. 

Editor's note: This story and headline have been updated with additional development, including to reflect Santos pleaded not guilty and was released. 

Rep. George Santos pleads not guilty to federal criminal charges

The embattled New York Republican was arraigned Wednesday afternoon.

Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) leaves federal court on May 10 in Central Islip, New York. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Congress

An FDA advisory panel on Wednesday unanimously endorsed making daily birth control pills available over-the-counter for the first time, following two days of deliberations over whether patient misuse could lead to more unintended pregnancies. 

Why it matters: If the FDA follows the recommendation and switches HRA Pharma's Opill away from prescription-only use, it could expand the availability of contraception and deepen partisan rifts over reproductive health in the post-Roe landscape.

HRA Pharma, part of consumer products giant Perrigo, expects a final decision from the FDA to come at some point this summer.

Driving the news: In a 17-0 vote, members of two FDA advisory committees decided that patients can properly follow Opill's labeling instructions — including taking the pill at around the same time every day — without consulting with a health provider.

"Today's vote to recommend a switch of Opill to OTC is a new, groundbreaking chapter in reproductive health," said Murray Kessler, Perrigo's president and CEO.

The FDA's approval "would address a key unmet need for contraceptive access, be a groundbreaking expansion for women’s health nationwide and a step forward toward ensuring people can have improved access to contraception without unnecessary barriers," said Frederique Welgryn, Perrigo Global Vice President for Women’s Health.

The big picture: The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists argues that since the fall of Roe v. Wade, increasing access to birth control through over-the-counter oral contraception is "critical" so that more people can "control their own reproductive futures, including avoiding pregnancy."

State of play: FDA staff had argued over the two-day meeting that by accessing birth control pills through their provider, patients received detailed screening and counseling when choosing what method fits best for them.

However, some committee members said that patients do not normally get such detailed counseling, and that should not be a barrier to over-the-counter sales.

Panelists also pointed out that even when patients take oral contraceptives prescribed by their doctor, they typically do not take the pill at the exact same time each day. While that does slightly diminish its efficacy, it's still considered safe and effective at preventing unintended pregnancies.

What they're saying: "We need to trust women," said Katalin Roth, a professor of medicine at George Washington University and an FDA adviser.

Roth added that the speakers who participated in the meeting "really brought home to all of us, how much we have to do to repair our broken health system and how poorly we have made access to health care available for so many young women, adolescents, older women."

"Approving this pill to be available over-the-counter will go towards rectifying that," Roth said. "I urge the FDA to approve the over-the-counter availability of Opill."

“I think this represents a landmark in our history of women’s health,” said Margery Gass, an OB-GYN at Cleveland Clinic and one of the FDA advisory panelists. 

“Unwanted pregnancies can really derail a woman’s life and especially an adolescent’s life, so I’m very pleased that the FDA is seriously considering this and I look forward to it being on the market," Gass added.

By the numbers: Reproductive rights advocates say that allowing for the over-the-counter sale of birth control pills could increase access to the 19 million women living in contraceptive deserts, which lack health centers that offer a full range of contraceptive methods.

Yes, but: Questions remain around whether it would be an affordable alternative.

Under federal law, health plans are encouraged, but not required, to cover over-the-counter birth control without cost-sharing.

At least 13 states though require insurers to cover over-the-counter contraceptive methods. 

While HRA Pharma has yet to announce how much Opill would cost, the company has said that it is committed to ensuring that the birth control is "not only accessible but affordable for all women in need."

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional reporting throughout.

19 million women living in contraceptive deserts

FDA experts unanimously endorse over-the-counter birth control pills

A final decision from the FDA is expected to come at some point this summer.

Illustration of a pill with an unlocked padlock top

Birth control

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

More than a dozen of Rep. George Santos’ (R-N.Y.) fellow members of Congress have demanded he resign or be expelled from Congress – calls that ticked up after he was charged and indicted by the Justice Department.

All the GOP lawmakers who have called for George Santos' ouster

More than a dozen House and Senate Republicans have said Santos should resign or be expelled.

Axios

Wednesday's top stories

Scoop: Manchin flirts with Iowa voters

TPG's Winkelried says he's scared of debt default, not AI

Rep. George Santos pleads not guilty to federal criminal charges

FDA experts unanimously endorse over-the-counter birth control pills

All the GOP lawmakers who have called for George Santos' ouster

HBCUs in spotlight as MLB eyes Black American talent

Consumer price index rises 0.4% in April, pushed up by higher auto prices

#MeToo's legacy lives on in the E. Jean Carroll verdict

The trust-nothing election

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AFP journalist killed in rocket attack in Ukraine

GOP patience with George Santos wears thin