President Trump said on Friday he is considering "winding down" the war with Iran without solving the crisis over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: Trump has said for several days that the war could end soon, but this is the strongest signal yet that he's actively moving in that direction. If he does walk away without reopening the strait, the U.S. would be leaving other countries to clean up a hugely consequential economic quagmire.
As the Iran war drives up jet fuel costs, travelers are bracing for airlines to raise ticket prices — making already expensive trips feel even more daunting.
The big picture: Travelers aren't powerless against rising fares and can still find opportunities to avoid even the worst price hikes, experts say.
Nearly a month into the Iran war, there are signs the conflict is poised to expand rather than conclude.
The big picture: Potential future events in the war — like escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or major changes Iran's leadership — could determine when the conflict ends.
Oil prices at four-year highs (and maybe climbing further) might nudge record U.S. production even higher — but don't expect a new boom.
Why it matters: Companies in onshore shale — the most nimble part of the industry — need lots of convincing to invest far beyond current plans, analysts say.
It has now become a familiar Wall Street two-step: Stocks stumble in the morning and mostly recover by the end of the day after President Trump says something that's viewed as reassuring about the Iran war.
Why it matters: Investors are jumping at any sign of an end to the Iran war — now in its third week and far longer than they initially predicted.
The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, four sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.
Why it matters: President Trump can't end the war, at least on his terms, until he breaks Iran's chokehold on shipping through the strait. In the meantime, global energy prices are surging.
Iranian hackers tied to a recent U.S. cyberattack have been running a broader intimidation campaign that involved issuing death threats and suggesting they have ties to a Mexican cartel to "commit acts of violence," the Justice Department said Thursday.
Why it matters: The campaign shows Iran's cyber playbook is moving beyond hacking companies and is now pairing cyberattacks with tactics to coerce targets and shape narratives.
House Republicans blanched at the Pentagon's reported $200 billion price tag for Iran, but many are embracing the eye-popping number to help energize a stalled reconciliation process.
Why it matters: GOP leaders have struggled to build consensus around a "reconciliation 2.0" package. But injecting a must-pass defense spending bill into the equation will give Speaker Mike Johnson the urgency he needs to bring it to the floor.
The Iran war is driving markets down and energy prices up — and the duration and direction of the conflict will partially be determined by what takes place in a few key locations.
Why it matters: Escalating tensions could all shape how and when the war ends. Any attack or strategic move could push the war into a new phase.
The Pentagon is highlighting newnational security concerns about Anthropic's use of foreign workers, including from China, according to a court filing.
Why it matters: The Defense Department is raising red flags about a key element of the AI industry — its reliance on global talent — as it moves to dismiss Anthropic's lawsuit.
Following strikes hitting military targets on Iran's Kharg Island last week, President Trump is escalating threats to take the island in an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The big picture: Just 15 miles off Iran's coast, Kharg Island handles about 90% of the country's crude oil exports — and a direct hit on the export terminal would shut down most of that flow.
The Trump administration doesn't plan to thwart U.S. oil exports as officials scramble for ways to temper energy price spikes.
Why it matters: Rumors of restrictions have swirled in recent days, and would represent a sea change after years of expanding shipments that have made the U.S. a huge player in global markets.
Former counterterrorism official Joe Kent catapulted into headlines this week after he claimed in his resignation letter that Iran posed "no imminent threat" to the U.S.
Why it matters: Despite the Trump administration's immediate attacks on his credibility, Kent has typically aligned himself with conservative values and the MAGA brand, previously earning praise from President Trump.
Nearly three weeks into the Iran war, the risk of sustained disruption to global energy supplies is getting worse, not better. That's raising the possibility of tighter money and higher borrowing costs worldwide.
The big picture: Global policymakers can't wave a magic monetary wand and fix a breakdown in the key supply chains for oil and natural gas. All they can do is try to contain the inflationary fallout.
Financial markets on Thursday were waking up to that possibility — and repricing global assets accordingly.
Seven U.S. allies announced in a joint statement on Thursday their support for a potential coalition to reopen the strait of Hormuz for commercial ships and oil tankers.
Reality check: The statement does not include any commitment to send naval vessels or other resources to make that happen. For now, it's largely a gesture to placate President Trump, who has railed against allies for declining to help secure the strait and warned that a failure to do so could undermine the future of NATO.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon would ask Congress for more money to wage war in Iran, though he said the reported $200 billion figure "could move."
Why it matters: A request on that scale would likely face stiff opposition from many Democrats and some Republicans, given the unpopularity of the war and the fact that it would be in addition to the Pentagon's existing $1 trillion budget.
If you ask energy historian Daniel Yergin, the Iran war "has been brewing for 47 years."
The big picture: Surging oil and gas prices tied to Middle East tensions will hang over a Houston gathering next week that is one of the global energy industry's biggest annual events.
The Israeli military strike on Tehran's South Pars gas field facilities means the Iran war will likely extend into May, analysts said Wednesday.
The big picture: Oil prices jumped after Israeli forces' unprecedented strike on the gas field that Axios' Barak Ravid reported was conducted in coordination with and approved by the Trump administration. The global benchmark Brent crude was still hovering above $110 per barrel early Thursday.
President Trump said Wednesday that Israel will not conduct further attacks on Iran's main natural gas facility.
Why it matters:Trump's comments that seem to be an effort to de-escalate the situation came hours after he green-lit the Israeli strike on the facility that marked a significant escalation in the war.
