Trump considers "winding down" Iran war without opening Hormuz Strait
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President Trump in the Oval Office. Photo: Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images
President Trump said on Friday he is considering "winding down" the war with Iran without solving the crisis over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: Trump has said for several days that the war could end soon, but this is the strongest signal yet that he's actively moving in that direction. If he does walk away without reopening the strait, the U.S. would be leaving other countries to clean up a hugely consequential economic quagmire.
What he's saying: "We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
- He listed degrading Iran's missile capability and industrial base, eliminating the Iranian navy and air force, preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and protecting U.S. allies in the Middle East, most of which were attacked during the war.
- "The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not," Trump wrote. "If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated."
Reality check: A U.S. official said he doesn't think Trump's post signals an imminent end to the war.
- "He just said we are getting close. In the meantime, the U.S. military is striking hard and continuously. It will be a couple of weeks."
- The U.S. is sending thousands of Marines to the region and conducting extensive strikes to reduce Iran's capacity to menace the strait. Some Trump advisers still think ground operations are likely.
- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the "President and the Pentagon predicted it would take approximately 4-6 weeks to achieve this mission. Tomorrow marks week 3." Another White House official echoed the message that Trump was emphasizing that the mission was on target.
Between the lines: The Hormuz crisis has Trump trapped: He can't end the war on his terms unless he breaks Iran's chokehold on Gulf oil, but reopening the strait by force would risk escalation and potentially put U.S. troops in the line of fire.
- Trump originally wanted to end the war before the end of March, sources say, but the crisis in the strait has compelled him to press on longer than he'd planned.
- While Trump suggested in his post that securing the strait would be easy, his team has been flummoxed over how best to achieve it.
- The White House has been discussing options, such as seizing Kharg Island off the Iranian coast, to force Iran to open the strait.
Inside the room: Allies and advisers who have spoken with Trump describe a president divided over the war.
- On one hand, he's worried about the price of oil and annoyed he can't get allies to help solve the Hormuz closure.
- On the other, he's thrilled with the raw exercise of military might obliterating Iranian leaders and military capabilities.
- "We're hot! We're winning!" he told a confidant opposed to the war who relayed the remarks to Axios.
- Polls show the war is highly unpopular overall, but Trump prefers to focus on the high percentage of MAGA Republicans who back it, his advisers say.
The flip side: Trump wanted NATO countries and other allies to send warships, minesweepers and aircraft as part of a coalition to reopen the strait.
- Most U.S. allies refused. The U.K. managed to get several Western countries to sign a political statement supporting such a coalition, without committing to sending forces.
- That statement didn't satisfy Trump. On Friday, he called NATO countries "cowards" and said that without the U.S., NATO is "a paper tiger."
The bottom line: It would be an extraordinary step to withdraw U.S. forces and support without solving a major economic crisis that resulted from the war and is driving gas prices up at home.
