House GOP welcomes $200B Pentagon request to jump-start reconciliation 2.0
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House Speaker Mike Johnson during a Capitol Hill news conference on March 17. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
House Republicans blanched at the Pentagon's reported $200 billion price tag for Iran, but many are embracing the eye-popping number to help energize a stalled reconciliation process.
Why it matters: GOP leaders have struggled to build consensus around a "reconciliation 2.0" package. But injecting a must-pass defense spending bill into the equation will give Speaker Mike Johnson the urgency he needs to bring it to the floor.
- The Pentagon's request "opens up the door to a second reconciliation package," Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas) said.
Zoom in: Any reconciliation process is typically painful and prolonged. And on this one, coming less than a year after the $3 trillion One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the math will be close to impossible — if deficit neutrality is the goal.
- Expect to hear lots of talk about "offsets" from fiscal hawks.
- "I would just want to see a pay-for. I think reconciliation probably is the best vehicle," Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) said.
- "No blank checks," Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told Axios. "It needs to be paid for or be a part of a reconciliation package."
The other side: The Senate is decidedly cooler on using a second reconciliation bill to replenish the munitions the Pentagon has used for Operation Epic Fury in Iran.
- "I understand the need to get this through, but it seems to me that it would be best to go through the appropriations process," Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) told Semafor.
What we're hearing: House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), one of the most vocal backers of reconciliation 2.0, has floated using tariff revenue, cuts to government programs and changes to Affordable Care Act cost-sharing reduction payments as potential offsets.
- "There are savings in reforms on the affordability side and on the anti-fraud side. Again, the question is, how big can we go?" Arrington told Axios.
- "How big can we get some of the members in more competitive districts who have higher levels of political sensitivity?"
Yes, but: Those same pay-fors could alienate moderates, especially in swing districts.
- Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said lawmakers need details on "offsets" and "oversight," adding that funding for Ukraine should be included if funding for Iran is added.
- House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), who has been skeptical that Republicans can pass another mega-bill, told Axios earlier this week there isn't a consensus in the conference to include defense spending in reconciliation.
The bottom line: The addition of Iran funding could be key to unlocking President Trump's attention, and his engagement will almost certainly be needed if GOP leaders want to pass another party-line bill when they have an even smaller majority than last year.
- "He's not a process guy. He's a results guy," Arrington told Axios of Trump. "The president wants the result to be money to support our troops in this conflict."
