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National

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

2028

Axios 2028

Flush with $82.5 million that was just transferred from his state account, the super PAC backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is ready to spend huge sums on a bet that the Republican electorate in 2024 is angrier and more conservative than it was in 2016. 

Why it matters: The DeSantis team argues that the swing voters of the Republican primary are on the far-right rather than the center-right and are more focused on cultural than economic power.  

"The fight for the soul of the party isn’t about tax cuts or trade deals,” Jeff Roe, a top adviser to Never Back Down, the super PAC supporting DeSantis, told Axios. “It is this cultural combat that we have as a country."

"These people know that DeSantis is a culture warrior for this time,” he said. “These voters are more angry than they were in 2016.” 

The fight for the right flank of the party could hurt both DeSantis and Donald Trump in a general election. 

Driving the news: This week, the Super PAC Never Back Down will begin a $5 million ad buy through July 4 designed to burnish DeSantis' conservative credentials, sources told Axios.

Zoom in: DeSantis has sustained some $18 million in attack ads from Trump’s Super PAC, dropped significantly in national polls the last several months, and muddled through a buggy Twitter announcement.

But Never Back Down says that DeSantis' numbers have rebounded over the past month with likely caucus-goers and shared two internal polls with Axios, one taken in mid-May and another taken from May 30 to June 1 with 655 respondents. 

The latest poll showed the Florida governor effectively tied with Trump in Iowa with a head-to-head matchup, up from DeSantis' 14-point deficit in mid-May.

With the other candidates included, DeSantis was further away from Trump but had still gained ground. In the most recent survey, Trump led DeSantis 39%-29%, compared to 24%-48% earlier in the month.

At the national level, Trump still has a comfortable lead, up 53%-26%, according to a CNN survey from May 24, but DeSantis' team believes a strong early showing can catapult the Florida governor to the nomination.

Zoom out: DeSantis advisers appear more focused on getting to the right of Trump on hot-button cultural fights, including attacking corporate support for LGBTQ+ causes and how sexual education is taught in schools.

DeSantis world doesn’t seem overly concerned by a Federal Election Commission complaint from a campaign finance group that questioned the legality of the transfer of more than $80 million from the state campaign account to a federal one.

The intrigue: Both candidates' super PAC's can't coordinate with the official campaigns and have recently been sharing their internal polling. 

Last week, Trump’s super PAC pollster Tony Fabrizio sent a memo to GOP donors arguing that it's a "myth" that DeSantis is more electable than the former president, as Axios first reported.

DeSantis' official campaign declined to comment.

By the numbers: In addition to buying airtime, DeSantis's super PAC is  investing heavily in an extensive field operation. 

So far, DeSantis' official campaign has let its super PAC take the lead on field organizing, an unusual and largely untested approach in presidential politics. 

In Iowa, Never Back Down says it has knocked on 65,963 doors, relying mostly on volunteers and paid organizers, who have gone through an eight-day training camp in West Des Moines. That’s led to 19,126 conversations, officials say. 

The goal is to reach each of likely caucus-goer five times before election day.

In New Hampshire, super PAC officials say they have hit 27,793 doors for a total of 6,209 conversations.

The super PAC says it has more recently begun hitting doors in South Carolina and Nevada. 

Never Back Down told the New York Times in May that it planned to hire more than 2,600 field organizers by Labor Day.

Go deeper: In the hopes of dislodging Trump early, several GOP candidates have an Iowa-centric strategy. A top adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence, who is expected to announce his candidacy this week, said that “we’re going to organize Iowa, all 99 counties, like we’re running him for county sheriff.”

it's a "myth" that DeSantis is more electable

Team DeSantis bets big on angrier GOP base

Never Back Down says that DeSantis' numbers have rebounded over the past month.

Gov. DeSantis, flanked by Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, stands in front of a John Deere tractor in Des Moines, Iowa. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Ron DeSantis

Elections 2024

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Axios AI+

Apple announced Vision Pro, a long-awaited mixed reality headset on Monday, alongside several new Macs and updates to the software that powers the iPhone and other devices.

Why it matters: The headset is Apple's most significant new device in years and a big bet that augmented and virtual reality are more than just a fad.

The big picture: The device, which resembles a futuristic set of ski goggles, allows users to view digital content on top of the real world and is controlled using voice, eye gaze and hand gestures. It's due out early next year for $3,499. 

"It's the first device you look through and not at," Apple CEO Tim Cook said "Your surroundings become an infinite canvas."

Details: The headset is powered by the combination of an M2 processor and a new R1 chip designed for mixed reality devices and a new visionOS operating system. 

An aluminum and glass frame houses an array of sensors and cameras as well as built-in spatial audio speakers. 

In-person bystanders can see the eyes of the person wearing the headset when they are in augmented reality mode, while they remain occluded when someone is in a virtual reality experience. 

Magnetically attaching lenses created in partnership with Zeiss can accommodate those who normally require eyeglasses.

The headset can display a variety of virtual windows with 4K resolution, including from a nearby Mac.

Vision Pro can also create photorealistic avatars for use in video conferencing.

It can also capture immersive "spatial photos" and "spatial videos" to relive moments in time.

Apple says the battery pack, which connects to the headset via a cord anin photos looks to be iPhone-sized, lasts up to two hours.

Between the lines: Getting sufficient content is always a challenge with new platforms. Apple promised 100 games would be available at launch and also brought up Disney CEO Bob Iger on stage to tout the creative possibilities for the device.

Iger showed a video of some early ideas from Disney, including enhanced viewing of sports and movies as well as ways of joining in the action, such as having a Main Street Electrical Parade in your living room. It also promised Disney+ will be live on Vision Pro at launch.

Yes, but: Apple faces a series of headwinds, including the nascent state of the components needed for such devices and a tech world whose attention has largely shifted from VR, AR and the metaverse towards AI, thanks to the arrival of ChatGPT.

The big picture: Apple is pitching Vision Pro as made for a wide range of experiences, from gaming to video conferencing to work tasks, including Microsoft Office apps like Teams, Word and Excel. 

Meta made a similar pitch for its $1,500 Meta Quest Pro, but reviewers and consumers haven't displayed a similar excitement, with the product largely viewed as a pricey improvement on the gaming-focused Quest 2.

Here's what else Apple announced at the event.

The Mac Pro has finally made the transition away from Intel chips, the last of Apple's computers to make the switch. It runs on Apple's new M2 Ultra chip and starts at a whopping $6,999.

The new 15" MacBook Air weighs 3.3 pounds, has a claimed 18-hour battery life and starts at $1299. 

The Mac Studio desktop has been upgraded with a faster M2 Max or optional M2 Ultra processor, startting at $1999.

On the software side, Apple previewed iOS 17 which adds a new journaling feature, improved autocorrect and speech-to-text dictation using a large language model as well as NameDrop, a new feature that lets two iPhone users more share contact information just by bringing their phones near each other. 

The next version of MacOS, dubbed Sonoma, adds many of the same features debuting with iOS 17. Sonoma also brings privacy improvements to Safari as well as a mode that optimizes processing power when playing games and improved video conferencing that lets a speaker appear alongside a presentation. It's also more video chat features to Apple TV, including support for Zoom and WebEx.

WatchOS 10, an update to the software that powers Apple Watch, adds support for various widgets without leaving the main watch face. 

Developer will get a test version of the software updates later today, with a public beta next month and final versions for consumers due out this fall. 

Apple debuts Vision Pro, its mixed reality headset

Along with the VR goggles, the iPhone maker introduced  new Macs and previewed iOS 17 and MacOS Sonoma.

Press and invited guests watch Apple's presentation at Apple Park in Cupertino. Photo: Mike Allen/Axios

Apple

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork Monday with the Federal Election Commission to launch his 2024 presidential bid.

Driving the news: Pence's FEC filing comes days ahead of his expected formal campaign launch, setting up a challenge to his onetime boss former President Trump.

Close Pence allies launched a super PAC, called "Committed to America," in May. 

Pence is expected to appeal to evangelical conservatives in Iowa.

The big picture: Pence, who largely avoided criticizing Trump while serving as vice president, has since condemned the former president for his actions during the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

Trump sought to convince Pence that he could unilaterally reject electors during the 2020 election, and he defended supporters who threatened to "hang" the former vice president. 

Pence earlier this year said that Trump "let me down" on Jan. 6 and that he and Trump have gone "separate ways" since leaving the White House. 

Zoom out: Pence joins a crowded GOP primary field that includes Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley.

Former Gov. Chris Christie is also expected to announce his 2024 Republican candidacy for president this week. 

Mike Pence files paperwork to run for president

The filing sets up a challenge to his onetime boss former President Trump.

Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks  at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on April 26, 2023. Photo: Allison Joyce / AFP via Getty

Mike Pence

The upcoming United Nations climate summit in Dubai will be aimed at closing the gap between Paris Agreement's climate goals and global emissions commitments, according to COP28 director-general Majid al-Suwaidi. 

Why it matters: COP28 is viewed as a last-ditch effort to limit warming to the most ambitious Paris target of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels by 2100, by bending the trajectory of emissions sharply downward.

Yes, but: Many climate scientists already view that target as out of reach because of the cumulative impact of human-caused greenhouse emissions, and recent trends.

The world already has warmed by about 1.2°C (2.16°F) above preindustrial levels.

Driving the news: In an interview with Axios prior to his departure for pre-COP28 talks in Bonn, Germany, al-Suwaidi said this COP will stand out.

From the 1990s all the way through Paris and Glasgow, summits were mainly about securing political outcomes, said al-Suwaidi, who has also served as the United Arab Emirates' ambassador to Spain and a veteran climate negotiator. 

COP28, however, will be about how to deliver on the goals world leaders already have committed to. 

To meet them, he said the fossil fuel industry should be brought into the fold.

Zoom in: The summit, which starts Nov. 30, will feature the first "Global Stocktake" on the Paris Agreement. 

The forum is intended to examine how far off-course the world is in limiting global warming, and to solicit ambitious commitments to close any gap. 

Studies show that if the world warms beyond the Paris targets, the odds of potentially devastating consequences for ecosystems and billions of people would increase significantly. 

As al-Suwaidi explains to Axios, "We can't say that Paris is a success if today we know we're off track for achieving the goals of Paris. So it's incumbent upon us to say, how do we get back on track?" 

Of note: The world is currently on course to exceed 2°C of warming, but the UAE presidency is committed to keeping the 1.5°C goal in play, however challenging it may be.

"The UAE Presidency welcomes the opportunity to drive an inclusive, action-oriented COP to strengthen hope and build confidence in delivering the ambitions of the Paris Agreement, including keeping 1.5 within reach," al-Suwaidi said in a statement to Axios after the interview.

Between the lines: As a major oil and gas producer, the UAE brings baggage, but also credibility in bringing fossil fuel companies more openly into the COP process.

The UAE's COP president-designate, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, also serves as the CEO of ADNOC, the country's national oil and gas company. 

The incoming COP presidency has come under harsh criticism for both its oil and gas ties, as well as its welcoming stance to the sector worldwide. 

"We know that we're an oil and gas producing country, we have a COP president who is the CEO of an oil and gas company. We understand why that may appear to people outside, as you know, challenging," al-Suwaidi said.

"However, we don't see it that way," he added.

Bringing the industry into the U.N. climate summit's fold is conditional, and is based on the view that oil and gas companies must be part of any climate change solutions, al-Suwaidi said.

What he's saying: "We can't have an exclusive conversation that misses out the whole constituency who are really arguably, who are best placed to help you solve the problem." 

"We're asking them to come and say what they're going to do to address the climate challenge."

Al-Suwaidi said it's up to Simon Stiell, the head of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, to determine if Russian oil and gas producers like Roseneft would be invited. 

Such companies are under a Western embargo over the war in Ukraine.

The intrigue: Al-Suwaidi said the incoming COP presidency is focused on having a "transparent" process. At past COPs, industry representatives "would come anyway" but not necessarily disclose their affiliations. 

He did not detail specific steps to ensure such transparency, which some civil society groups may push for during the Bonn pre-COP meetings.

In a letter sent May 23, nearly 100 US and EU lawmakers called for al-Jaber to be removed as COP28 president-designate, and for measures to limit industry's influence in the talks. 

Al-Suwaidi rejected those calls as unnecessary and unhelpful, given al- Jaber's long tenure as the UAE's climate envoy, his commitment to the energy transition and support from governments worldwide.

Top COP28 official: Oil, gas should be at the climate table

Major emitters, including fossil fuel companies, should be brought into the U.N. climate summit fold, senior UAE official says.

Axios

Monday's top stories

Team DeSantis bets big on angrier GOP base

Apple debuts Vision Pro, its mixed reality headset

Mike Pence files paperwork to run for president

Top COP28 official: Oil, gas should be at the climate table

Six months in, ChatGPT still mesmerizes and dismays

Nikki Haley takes aim at Trump and DeSantis during CNN town hall

Debt ceiling winners: Vulnerable lawmakers turn lemons into lemonade

Hong Kong's loss of rights looms as Taiwan commemorates Tiananmen

Chuck Todd to leave NBC's "Meet the Press" in September

America's economic holding pattern

The early scramble to prepare for hurricane season