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National

With the debt ceiling debate behind them for another two years, vulnerable lawmakers in swing districts — from both parties — are breathing a sigh of relief.

Why it matters: Both sides risked potential backlash from their respective ideological flanks, but many feel they came out with a compromise that projects serious governance and puts them on a stronger political footing.

The fact that two-thirds of the House GOP — and even eight hard-right Freedom Caucus members — backed the deal will make it harder to target the moderate Republicans in primaries over this issue.

Democrats in tough districts also can tout their support for spending discipline to burnish a moderate image.

Go deeper: Debt ceiling fights carry monumental political and financial peril, something many lawmakers fear would be heightened in the heat of an election year.

But lawmakers and strategists from both parties are confident the issue has been defused.

For Republicans, party officials are relieved the episode empowered House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) against the often self-defeating instincts of his caucus' right flank.

Details: The bill House Republicans passed in April — the Limit, Save, Grow Act — would have lifted the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion or until March 2024, dropping the issue into the heart of the 2024 primary calendar.

But McCarthy and President Biden agreed to a bill suspending the debt ceiling until January 2025, meaning it likely will be tackled in the lame duck session after the 2024 general election.

What they're saying: "One critical piece in the deal that is not being looked at as a positive for the Democrats, but I view it as a tremendous positive and a win ... is that we're raising the debt ceiling for two years," said Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.).

Moskowitz said it would have been "catastrophic for the American people" to have a debt ceiling fight "in the middle of a partisan presidential election," calling it "not just a win for Joe Biden, but a win for the country."

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) cast this year's debt ceiling talks as "grownups at the table, meeting in the middle," and said that "if you're closer to the election, there may be less willingness to compromise."

"[I] fear that this [House Republican] majority would, again, use this threat as a political tool to try to embarrass the president," said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

By the numbers: Congress hasn't taken a vote to raise or suspend the debt ceiling in an election year since 2014. The last time it took one in a presidential election year was 2012.

Once a routine act, debt ceiling votes have become increasingly fraught, with Republicans in particular often using the issue to extract spending cuts from Democratic administrations.

Reality check: The House campaign committees targeted their rivals over debt ceiling votes — Democrats hitting Republicans on voting to cut benefits for veterans, Republicans hitting Democrats for opposing any spending cuts — but there's little expectation these votes will be major factors in the 2024 campaign messaging.

The intrigue: Moskowitz, who won by just 5 points in 2022, said he does plan to incorporate the debt ceiling into his campaign message — arguing a vote for Democrats is a "vote for normalcy" on the issue.

"We already had Donald Trump saying live on CNN that the U.S. should default," Moskowitz said. "Imagine what he would say in January or February or March of next year."

The bottom line: Historically, big compromises between a Democratic president and conservative Congress benefit the incumbents.

Both Bill Clinton and the Republican-controlled Congress won re-election in 1996 after heated fights over spending and entitlements that led to a government shutdown — and later, a major legislative compromise over welfare reform.

President Obama's high-stakes fiscal fights with the Tea Party-fueled Republican House in the 2010s also led to Obama winning a second term — and Republicans comfortably retaining their House majority.

Voters like divided government, which would bode well for both Biden and the House GOP's political prospects in 2024.

Debt ceiling winners: Vulnerable lawmakers turn lemons into lemonade

Lawmakers in swing districts — from both parties — are breathing a sigh of relief.

Illustration of the U.S. Capitol over a divided blue and red background with elements of ballots.

Debt ceiling

Politics & Policy

China

Axios China

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Hundreds of people gathered in Taipei on Sunday to commemorate the 34th anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen pro-democracy movement in China, which was crushed by the Chinese military. 

Why it matters: The event, held at Liberty Square in front of a memorial to Taiwan's former dictator Chiang Kai-shek, marked a stark contrast between Taiwan's successful struggle for democracy and the loss of rights in Hong Kong. It also served as a grim reminder of what's at stake for the future of Taiwan. 

Taiwan is now the "only Chinese society" that can freely hold a Tiananmen memorial, Chinese scholar and former Tiananmen organizer Wu Renhua said in a speech at the event.

Hong Kong organizers once held annual Tiananmen candlelight vigils that attracted tens of thousands of participants. But such vigils are now effectively banned since Beijing's national security law was enacted in the city in 2020. 

Over the weekend, Hong Kong police fanned out around central areas and arrested or detained several people for even small acts of protest like posting a photo of a candle, and carrying a copy of a play about June 4th. 

The big picture: The struggle between democracy and authoritarianism has shaped the relationship between China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan — and at times, created unexpected bonds between those societies.

Details: The memorial featured more than a dozen booths set up by local human rights organizations and several hosted by Hong Kongers, as well as a Lennon wall and a small-scale replica of the "Pillar of Shame," a sculpture commemorating Tiananmen that was removed from display in 2021 and seized by the Hong Kong police last month.

Organizers estimated about 1,000 people visited the booths throughout the day and attended the rally. 

The rally included speeches by prominent Tiananmen leaders and other pro-democracy activists. 

Former Hong Kong professor Kacey Wong led the crowd in chants including "Fight for freedom! Stand with Hong Kong!" and "Fight for freedom! Stand with Taiwan!"

What they're saying: "These people died fighting for democracy, so that's why it's really important to remember it," one Hong Konger studying in Taipei told Axios on condition of anonymity due to fears of prosecution back in Hong Kong for attending the memorial.

"You don't see this in Hong Kong anymore. It's really refreshing to see it... I feel it in my heart."

Background: The Tiananmen movement helped inspire the 1990 student-led Wild Lily movement in Taiwan that successfully pushed the government to implement democratic reforms. 

In 1989, when students around China staged demonstrations for weeks demanding democracy, many people in Taiwan wanted the same for themselves. Martial law in Taiwan had been lifted two years before, but the Kuomintang (KMT) still ruled over the country as a one party-state and continued to stifle dissent.

Zhang Longsan, a 53-year-old Taipei resident present at the event on Sunday, told Axios he attended the Tiananmen solidarity gathering in Taipei on June 3, 1989, the night before the massacre in Beijing. The KMT government allowed the gathering, Zhang said, because people were expressing opposition to the Chinese Communist Party.

"At that time I thought, Taipei students and Beijing students are the same," Zhang said, leading him to question why the KMT, which he originally supported, would allow Taiwanese students to support demands for democratization in China but not demands for democratization at home.

"After that, I commemorated June 4th every year ... I think it's a very important thing for democracy in Taiwan and China." Zhang now works at the Chen Wen-chen Memorial Foundation, which supports human rights in Taiwan.

What to watch: As Chinese President Xi Jinping pushes Beijing's claims of sovereignty over Taiwan more aggressively, many people in Taiwan are increasingly worried that Taiwan may one day face the same fate as Hong Kong.

Editor's note: This story was corrected to reflect that the "Pillar of Shame" sculpture was seized by police last month (not in 2021).

Hong Kong's loss of rights looms as Taiwan commemorates Tiananmen

The anniversary is a grim reminder of what's at stake for the future of Taiwan.

A participant places a candle on a memorial at a Tiananmen memorial at Liberty Square in Taipei, Taiwan on June 4, 2023. 

A participant places a candle at a Tiananmen memorial at Liberty Plaza in Taipei, Taiwan on June 4, 2023. Photo: Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian.

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Chuck Todd, the longtime moderator of NBC's "Meet the Press," will step down from the hourlong political show later this year. 

Driving the news: Todd, who has hosted "Meet the Press" for nine years, will depart the show in September, he said at the close of the June 4 show. 

He will be replaced by Kristen Welker, who currently serves as NBC News’ co-chief White House correspondent. 

Todd will transition to a new role with NBC News, he said Sunday, though no details were given as to what that will be. 

What he's saying: “It’s been an amazing nearly decadelong run. I am really proud of what this team and I have built over the last decade," Todd said on Sunday's show. 

"I’ve loved so much of this job, helping to explain America to Washington and explain Washington to America." 

Todd grew emotional when he said he's let work "consume" his life for nearly 30 years. "I've watched too many friends and family let work consume them before it was too late, and I promised my family I wouldn't do that."

"I'd rather leave a little bit too soon than stay a little bit too long," Todd said of his departure from the show. 

Todd began as the "Meet the Press" moderator in 2014, and helped expand the show from its traditional Sunday timeslot to MSNBC and the show "MTP Daily," which ran from 2014 to 2022. 

Todd further pushed "Meet The Press" to expand its brand with the development of two streaming shows:  "Meet the Press Reports" and "Meet the Press NOW," which air on the NBC News Now app. 

He has been NBC News' political director since joining the network in 2007, anchored election night coverage and served as the co-moderator for two presidential debates during the 2020 election cycle.

What's next: Welker will take over the show in September, though a specific date was not given for when the handover will occur. 

Todd praised Welker in his closing remarks, saying she has been ready for the job for "a long time." 

"I've had the privilege of working with her from essentially her first day here in Washington. And let me just say she is the right person in the right moment." 

"This is how I always hoped this is how it would end for me, that I would be passing the baton to her."

Welker joined NBC News in 2010 and was named a co-host of "Weekend TODAY" in 2020.

Welker served as moderator for the final presidential debate between then-President Trump and Joe Biden in October 2020.

The bottom line: In his final remarks Sunday, Todd said he was departing the show "feeling concerned about this moment in history." 

"We didn’t tolerate propagandists and this network and program never will. But it doesn’t mean sticking your head in the sand either; if you ignore reality, you’ll miss the biggest story," he said.  

"Being a real political journalist isn’t about building a brand, it’s about reporting what’s happening and explaining why it’s happening and letting the public absorb the facts. If you do this job seeking popularity, you are doing this job incorrectly. " 

Go deeper: Listen to the Axios Today podcast, where Margaret Talev, filling in for host Niala Boodhoo, and Sara Fischer talk about what Chuck Todd's departure means amid larger changes in the media.

Chuck Todd to leave NBC's "Meet the Press" in September

"I’ve loved so much of this job, helping to explain America to Washington and explain Washington to America."

Chuck Todd stands in front of a map of Georgia that displays individual voting results for state counties.

Chuck Todd in Studio 1A at Rockefeller Plaza on Election Day, Nov. 8, 2022. Photo: Peter Kramer/NBC via Getty Images

Capital

Axios Capital

Data: Federal Reserve Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking; Chart: Axios Visuals

Americans are not happy with the economy. Which is weird, given that it is doing just fine. 

Why it matters: It's hard to see what could turn sentiment around. That's largely because of Fed chair Jerome Powell, who doesn't want and won't allow some kind of economic boom — he thinks the economy is running too hot already.

The big picture: The U.S. economy continues to defy the odds. The May employment report, released on Friday morning, marked the 14th straight month that more jobs were created than economists expected. 

It's all a far cry from the misery in other countries like the U.K. — with sky-high inflation — or Germany, which is now officially in a recession. 

By the numbers: The U.S. economy has created more than 4 million new jobs in the past 12 months. 

GDP continues to grow, and is up more than 5% from its pre-pandemic peak, even after accounting for inflation.

The average U.S. employee now makes $33.44 per hour, a raise of more than 17.5% since pre-pandemic. 

The stock market is up 10% so far this year, and we're not even halfway done.

Between the lines: Americans, however, don't buy it. They're broadly happy with their own personal finances, but a majority consistently thinks (erroneously) that we're in a recession, and just 18% think the national economy is in good shape, per the Fed's most recent Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. 

Part of the problem is higher consumer prices. Inflation might be coming down rapidly, but even if it goes all the way to zero prices will still be much higher than Americans became accustomed to.

The highly visible congressional dysfunction surrounding the debt ceiling, and all the associated rhetoric about the unsustainability of the national debt, can only have had negative effects in terms of Americans' attitude to their national economy.

More broadly, some of the feverishness of the pandemic years is beginning to wear off. What remains is a highly disconcerting "New Not Normal."

Where it stands: The Federal Reserve has been hiking interest rates aggressively to try to cool down the economy and get inflation under control. Any hint of further exuberance will be met by even more rate hikes.

The Fed has no mandate to deliver a booming economy; its job is to just reduce inflation while keeping employment high. So far it seems to be succeeding, albeit more slowly than many would have preferred. 

The bottom line: Money can't buy happiness.

America's economic holding pattern

Americans are not happy with the economy. Which is weird, given that it is doing just fine.

Inflation

A chart showing the Proportion of Americans who feel good about their own finances and the national economy

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Coastal states are already rushing to prepare for an Atlantic hurricane season that forecasters warn will be unusually unpredictable.

Why it matters: Just a decade or two ago, fretting about hurricane season in June was akin to putting up Christmas decorations before Halloween.

But officials throughout the South and along the East Coast are asking residents to pay attention earlier as storms grow more intense and seasons start sooner and end later, in part due to human-caused climate change.

The early scramble to prepare for hurricane season

Officials throughout the South and along the East Coast are asking residents to pay attention earlier as storms grow more intense and seasons start sooner.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Debt ceiling winners: Vulnerable lawmakers turn lemons into lemonade

Hong Kong's loss of rights looms as Taiwan commemorates Tiananmen

Chuck Todd to leave NBC's "Meet the Press" in September

America's economic holding pattern

The early scramble to prepare for hurricane season

Devastating profile dogs CNN boss

Scoop: House Democrat's bill would mandate AI disclosure

Charted: Growing global acceptance of gay and lesbian people