Axios

Senate Democratic campaigns have outspent Republicans with the one currency that both parties value the most.

Why it matters: Democrats' advantage with hard dollars has forced Republicans to rely on GOP leader Mitch McConnell's outside super PACs.

• Hard dollars are raised in smaller increments and are controlled by campaigns, versus outside super PACs. They get more bang for the buck on TV ad rates.
• That dynamic is also in play in the House. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' Democrats trounced their opponents in hoovering up hard dollars in the third quarter, and the DCCC has consistently outraised the NRCC.

Mike Johnson's House Republicans have a second reason to want a bigger majority: If Trump wins, they'll need the cushion when members get poached.

Why it matters: Multiple GOP members have been angling for senior posts in a potential Trump administration, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told us in an exclusive interview last week.

• "I've heard from a number of members that have been having conversations whether they're on a short list or a long-short list. We've got really talented members in the House that could end up in the administration," he said.

Keep your focus on New York and California if you want to know who'll control the House next year.

Why it matters: Each state contains enough battleground House districts to determine control of the chamber. Republicans currently have a 5-seat edge.

New York alone contains seven districts rated as some degree of competitive by Cook Political Report.

• GOP Rep. Brandon Williams' race is rated "lean Democrat," while GOP Reps. Anthony D'Esposito and Marc Molinaro are both in toss-up seats.

Democrats are worried that the Nevada Senate race has tightened significantly in its final days, sources tell us.

Why it matters: A surprise loss in Nevada would doom Schumer's outside hopes of keeping a Senate majority.

• Republicans hold a rare early vote lead over Democrats, with the data showing a motivated GOP base in the state.
• Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) held a polling lead for essentially the entire campaign.

Democratic sources are increasingly worried that the Nevada Senate race has tightened significantly in its final days, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: A surprise loss in Nevada would almost certainly mean that Democrats will lose their majority in the Senate next year.

All eyes on Election Day will be on the handful of battleground states that decide the presidential race, but pay attention to New York and California for control of the U.S. House.

Why it matters: Despite leaning heavily Democratic statewide, each state contains enough battleground House districts to singlehandedly determine control of the chamber.

STAFFORD, Va. —House Republicans have another reason to want a bigger majority: If Donald Trump wins back the White House, they'd need the cushion when members get poached for administration jobs.

Why it matters: Multiple GOP members have been angling for senior posts in a potential Trump administration, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told Axios.

Senate Democratic campaigns have outspent Republicans with the one currency that both parties value the most: hard dollars.

Why it matters: The Senate map favors Republicans. But the Senate money favors Democrats.

Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are in the final days of a razor-thin race for the White House.

The big picture: Control of the U.S. House and Senate are up in the air, and countless local officials and ballot measures are also set to be decided in November.

With two days until Election Day, the two sides' closing messages are dramatically different — but their surrogates are singing a similar refrain: They're confident and optimistic.

Yes, but in toss-up America, no one really knows. Final polls show a neck-and-neck race in key swing states, while one pollster created shockwaves with numbers that suggest seemingly solidly red Iowa could receive a blue makeover.

Here's what you may have missed when newsmakers hit the airwaves this Sunday, November 3.

An aide to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is among the suspects arrested for an alleged security breach involving "classified and sensitive" intelligence taken illegally from Israeli Defense Forces, an Israeli judge said on Sunday.

Why it matters: The arrests of four suspects, including Netanyahu spokesperson Eli Feldstein, are at the center of what is likely to be the biggest scandal inside the Israeli government since the beginning of the war in Gaza.

Former President Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania Sunday suggested he wouldn't "mind that so much" if someone had to "shoot through the fake news" to get him, though his campaign later issued a statement to defend his words.

Why it matters: Trump, who's in a dead-heat race against Vice President Harris days before voting ends, has been open to seeking retribution against his growing list of perceived enemies. Mainstream news networks and media are not new to the list, but his allusions to violence have become more blatant.

More than 75 million Americans have already cast their ballots as of the Sunday before Election Day.

Why it matters: That's over 48% of the total number who voted in 2020 (154.6 million), indicating that early and mail-in voting has become increasingly popular methods to vote and become a new normal in American politics.

OŚWIĘCIM, Poland — The Auschwitz-Birkenau Memorial & Museum in Poland is facing pressure to weigh in on contemporary politics and current conflicts around race and ethnicity.

Why it matters: The museum will mark in January the 80th anniversary of the Auschwitz liberation by the Soviet Union as aging Holocaust survivors urge the world to recognize signs of potential genocides and racial violence, but the museum avoids addressing specific conflicts.

One thing is clear about Vice President Harris' intent to stick to her old liberal views or govern with new centrist thinking: She doesn't want voters to know.

Why it matters: Harris is the "no comment" candidate — purposely and strategically. She has calculated that it's safer to be vague on policy matters than lampooned as a flip-flopper or left-winger.

Former President Trump's plan to let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "go wild" on federal oversight of food and medicine could have real and serious consequences.

Why it matters: Even in an informal role, Kennedy could help diminish some of the most functional parts of the health care system, potentially leading to increases in preventable disease.

Vice President Harris made an unscheduled appearance on "Saturday Night Live" alongside her on-screen doppelgänger, Maya Rudolph.

Why it matters: Harris is making her final pitch to voters, with stops in Georgia and North Carolina on Saturday and Michigan on Sunday. In between, she appeared before a national TV audience to drum up enthusiasm ahead of Tuesday's vote.

Vice President Harris has jumped to a three percentage point lead over former President Trump in Iowa, according to the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of the cycle.

Why it matters: The poll should be taken with a grain of salt, as Harris was not expected to be competitive in the Hawkeye State. But pollster J. Ann Selzer is the gold standard in Iowa, and the poll hints that there might be surprises in store on election night.