Nov 2, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Shock poll: Harris grabs last-minute Iowa lead over Trump

Justin Green

This is Kamala Harris — Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Vice President Harris has jumped to a three percentage point lead over former President Trump in Iowa, according to the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of the cycle.

Why it matters: The poll should be taken with a grain of salt, as Harris was not expected to be competitive in the Hawkeye State. But pollster J. Ann Selzer is the gold standard in Iowa, and the poll hints that there might be surprises in store on election night.

Breaking it down: Harris has a 20 percentage point lead over Trump among women, and she's cut his lead among men by half since September, according to the new poll, conducted Oct. 28-31 among 808 likely Iowa voters.

Trump led Harris by four percentage points in the last poll, conducted in September.
"It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," Selzer told the Des Moines Register.

The bottom line: Selzer has a formidable track record, but she's been off the mark before.

Methodology: The DSM/Mediacom Iowa poll was conducted Oct. 28-31 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

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Shock poll: Harris grabs last-minute Iowa lead over Trump

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