Nov 1, 2024 - Politics & Policy
Harris' voter excitement advantage
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Emboldened allies of Vice President Harris are circulating new Gallup data that shows Democratic enthusiasm at a (slightly) higher level than it was for Barack Obama's big 2008 victory.
Why it matters: With four days left in this coin-toss election, campaigns and their supporters are grasping for any fresh data points that hint at the state of the race.
By the numbers: Gallup polling shows Dems with a 10-point enthusiasm advantage over Republicans.
- The 77% of Democrats who say they're excited outnumber the 75% who said they were excited in 2020. In 2016, that number was 50%.
- Matt Bennett, co-founder of the center-left Democratic think tank Third Way, tweeted that this is "a massively underreported fact. You can see it in the rallies, the field offices, and online. It could be decisive."
Between the lines: Voter enthusiasm, which the pollster started tracking in 2000, has a mixed track record of predicting presidential elections.
- It was right in 2020 and 2016 — but missed badly in 2012, when Gallup data showed Republicans with a 12-point edge.
Go deeper: Harris to host Election Day eve concert in Philadelphia
