Nov 3, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Schumer's hard edge

Justin Green

Stacked bar chart showing ad spending in select Democratic Senate races, by source, from January 1 to November 5, 2024. As of November 1, groups related to Senator Chuck Schumer spent $94m on ads in Ohio, $71m in Pennsylvania, and $30m in Montana. The groups spent $30-50m in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada, with the majority of spending in those states coming from campaigns. — Data: AdImpact; Note: Includes current ads and future reservations; Chart: Axios Visuals

Senate Democratic campaigns have outspent Republicans with the one currency that both parties value the most.

Why it matters: Democrats' advantage with hard dollars has forced Republicans to rely on GOP leader Mitch McConnell's outside super PACs.

Hard dollars are raised in smaller increments and are controlled by campaigns, versus outside super PACs. They get more bang for the buck on TV ad rates.
That dynamic is also in play in the House. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' Democrats trounced their opponents in hoovering up hard dollars in the third quarter, and the DCCC has consistently outraised the NRCC.

Zoom in: Democratic campaigns have spent more hard dollars on TV and digital ads this year than Republicans in every one of the most competitive Senate races.

That's also true when counting coordination with each party's Senate campaign arm and joint fundraising committees, according to AdImpact.
Chuck Schumer-linked groups have still spent heavily in key races — with their top ad investments in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
But Democratic super PACs trail McConnell's groups in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana.

Stacked bar chart showing the ad spending in select GOP Senate races, by source, from January 1 to November 5, 2024. As of October 31, three super PACs related to Senator Mitch McConnell spent $161m on ads in Ohio, $83m in Montana, and $67m in Pennsylvania. The PACs spent $10-40m in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, and none in Arizona. — Data: AdImpact; Note: Includes current ads and future reservations; Chart: Axios Visuals

The intrigue: Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is by far the most vulnerable Senate Democrat.

Schumer's affiliated groups have spent $30 million on Tester's behalf, roughly half the $56 million in hard dollars from Tester's own account.
That hard-dollar advantage helped Schumer-aligned money flow to Wisconsin and Nevada.

Democrats spent cash more efficiently by placing ad reservations much earlier in the cycle, capitalizing on lower rates further out from the election, sources tell us.

The bottom line: Republicans say they face a structural disadvantage on the fundraising front. Democrats are simply better, the GOP says, at convincing grassroots donors to part with small dollar amounts.

Incumbents have an advantage because they have established donor relationships, giving Democrats another leg up in the spending war.
But this year, even Democrats running for open seats, like Rep. Elisa Slotkin, outspent their opponents.

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— Hans Nichols, Stephen Neukam and Stef Kight

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Schumer's hard edge

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