Dem House candidates smoke GOP rivals in 11th hour fundraising

By the numbers: Democrats in races rated as "Toss-up," "Lean Democrat" or "Lean Republican" by Cook Political Report raised an average of nearly $2 million in that three-month period, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

• By contrast, Republicans in those 43 districts raised an average of just under $800,000, and all but two were out-raised by their Democratic foes.
• Only Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) and former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) raised more than their Democratic opponents, the filings showed.
• Even many Republican incumbents, some who have been in Congress for years, were bested in fundraising — some by overwhelming margins.

Between the lines: Several sources in both parties pointed to Vice President Harris replacing President Biden atop the Democratic ticket in July, shortly into the third quarter, as a critical driver of Democratic donor excitement.

• A House Republican whose Democrat opponent raked in more cash acknowledged to Axios that "replacing Biden added some enthusiasm."
• But "the sugar high has [worn] off," the GOP lawmaker added, with several Democratic lawmakers and campaigns pushing back on the notion that Harris had anything to do with their hauls.
• One House Democrat went as far as to say that "if anything, donors are giving because of worries that she's not going to win."

Yes, but: As Republicans were quick to point out, Democrats' average cash advantage going into October — $1.8 million to Republicans' $1.35 million — is far narrower than their fundraising margin.

• That is thanks to several fundraising quarters earlier this cycle in which Republicans brought in far more campaign cash than Democrats.
• Just over a dozen of the 43 Republicans, almost all incumbents, had more cash-on-hand than their Democratic challengers as of Oct. 1, while 30 Democrats who had larger war-chests.

Zoom out: Democratic candidates' individual fundraising superiority dovetails with a strong third quarter for Democratic leadership.

• House Majority PAC, a super PAC linked to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), raised roughly $99 million between July and September.
• That's $17.6 million more than the $81.4 million brought in by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a PAC closely aligned with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
• But both PACs have raised roughly $210 this cycle, putting them in a dead heat going into the final month of the campaign.

What they're saying: "The American people are ready for a Democratic majority that will lower costs ... and fight for their freedoms – that's why Democrats continue to outraise their opponents," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton told Axios.

• The campaign of Eugene Vindman, a Virginia Democrat who led the pack with a behemoth $6.4 million raised, said his haul demonstrates he has "the grassroots support and momentum going into the close of this race."
• Several strategists and lawmakers said the monies raised will give them critical resources to hammer their GOP opponents on TV and fund canvassing and get-out-the-vote operations in the final weeks of the campaign.

The other side: The House Republican who was out-raised by their Democratic opponent told Axios that the third quarter was "nothing beyond what we have been seeing" in recent cycles.

• The advantage is "not shocking, and we've been bringing in good numbers too," the GOP lawmaker added.
• National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Will Reinert noted that vulnerable House Republicans on the NRCC's "Patriots" program had an average of roughly $250,000 more in cash-on-hand than their DCCC "Frontliner" counterparts.
• Reinert also pointed to a recent Inside Elections analysis that said "the GOP has still has a narrow advantage overall" in the battle for the House.