Why you should watch these solidly blue states on Nov. 5
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All eyes on Election Day will be on the handful of battleground states that decide the presidential race, but pay attention to New York and California for control of the U.S. House.
Why it matters: Despite leaning heavily Democratic statewide, each state contains enough battleground House districts to singlehandedly determine control of the chamber.
By the numbers: House Republicans hold just a five-seat majority, while New York alone contains seven districts rated as some degree of competitive by Cook Political Report.
- Five of those seats are held by Republicans, while two are held by Democrats, meaning a wipeout for Republicans in the state could spell the end of GOP dominance in the House.
- GOP Rep. Brandon Williams' race is rated "lean Democrat," indicating it is likely to flip, while GOP Reps. Anthony D'Esposito and Marc Molinaro are both in toss-up seats.
- The other two Republicans, Reps. Mike Lawler and Nick LaLota, are rated "lean" and "likely" Republican, respectively, while Democratic Reps. Pat Ryan and Tom Suozzi are rated "lean" and "likely" Democratic.
Zoom in: California will be one of the last states to fully report its results, meaning that the state could prove decisive if House races are otherwise a wash nationwide.
- The state has a behemoth 10 competitive seats, seven of which are held by Republicans and three by Democrats.
- Five of those Republican seats — held by Reps. John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert and Michelle Steel – are rated toss-ups by Cook.
- Retiring Democratic Rep. Katie Porter's seat is rated as "lean Democrat," while the remaining Democratic and Republican incumbents are considered safer.
Yes, but: There are also plenty of competitive House races in key presidential swing states.
- Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.) are all defending contested turf, as are Reps. Don Davis (D-N.C.), David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.).
- There are also a handful of open seats in Michigan rated as "toss-ups."
