Black turnout in cities like Detroit is make-or-break for Harris
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Harris campaigns in Detroit on Oct. 19. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
DETROIT — Turnout among Black voters in a handful of cities like Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Charlotte could swing Tuesday's election — and Vice President Harris is focusing her closing push accordingly.
Why it matters: Grassroots organizers tell Axios voter apathy and disinformation might dampen support, particularly among young Black men. But if Black turnout comes in higher than expected, former President Trump's path to victory will get a lot narrower.
Driving the news: Harris is campaigning in Atlanta and Charlotte on Saturday, and in Detroit, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia before Tuesday.
What they're saying: "For Black voters, this isn't about persuasion at this point," says Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC. "It's about turnout — getting those people who are saying, 'I don't know if I'm going to vote'' to show up to the polls."
- Both campaigns have poured resources into major cities where Black voters make up a big portion of the electorate, Shropshire notes. In the closing days, it's "hand-to-hand combat in the streets, trying to get people to understand the stakes."
- LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter, tells Axios it's been an uphill battle to beat back misinformation ahead of Election Day. "When everything coming through your feed is negativity and lies, that's going to have some impact. But even with that impact, we're still seeing younger Black men saying, 'No, we're not going for that.'"
- Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, says the closing pitch is "the pocketbook issues that matter to 90% of voters," adding: "The struggle is real, whether you're Gen Z or a laid-off factory worker."
Zoom in: Detroit is a powerful example of concentrated Black voting power in a critical swing state.
- One key metric to watch: whether turnout in the city exceeds 50%.
- It surpassed that mark in 2020 (51%), 2012 (51%) and 2008 (53%) — all presidential elections in which the Democratic candidate won Michigan.
- In 2016, when Trump won Michigan and the election, Detroit's turnout was 49%.
- On Thursday, City Clerk Janice Winfrey projected Detroit's turnout at 51%-55% based on early voting and absentee ballot numbers.
What to watch: "It's about finding voters in unique places — people who don't show up on a phone list or door list but are still essential to this election," says Jamarr Brown, executive director of Color of Change PAC, which is trying to mobilize one million Black voters across five swing states, including with ads on platforms like YouTube, Peacock and Hulu.
- "If we can close that 1% gap in battleground states, we can make a difference."
The bottom line: "In a tight race, you can't afford your most dependable players not to participate. You need the ones who deliver the highest on the court. Black voters are that star player — they can make or break the outcome," says LaTosha Brown.
