Election tests Detroit's distinction as an overwhelming base of Democratic support
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Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris campaigns in Detroit on Oct. 19. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
The Democratic Party is again banking on strong Detroit turnout to help secure a win in the presidential race.
Why it matters: Potential cracks in the city's traditionally strong Democratic support have emerged, particularly among Black male and working-class voters, complicating Vice President Kamala Harris' path to victory in must-win Michigan.
Between the lines: Former President Donald Trump has drawn more endorsements from local public figures — like former Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick and rapper Trick Trick — than any recent Republican presidential nominee.
Yes, but: Local Democratic Party officials view the endorsements as outliers that mask many Detroiters' contempt for Trump's racist rhetoric.
- "Those are X-factors. We'll see if they're impactful. I say that they're not," Jonathan Kinloch, chairman of the 13th Congressional District Democratic Party, told Axios Detroit.
The big picture: Michigan is a critical state for Trump and Harris, with Detroit's working-class vote potentially tipping the scales.
- The candidates have spent weeks canvassing the state and Metro Detroit, each seeking the slightest edge in what figures to be a tight race.
- Both campaigns are vying for these votes amid longstanding frustrations and targeted misinformation eroding the Democratic Party's base.
Grassroots organizations are aggressively working to engage these voters on issues like job creation, wages, housing and health care to close the narrow margin.
- "At the end of the day, voters want a leader who'll take on corporate interests to improve their standard of living," said Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution.
- "The struggle is real, whether you're Gen Z or a laid-off factory worker."
By the numbers: The Democratic candidate won at least 94% of Detroit's vote in each of the last four presidential elections.
- President Joe Biden received 240,936 votes in Detroit to Trump's 12,889 — a difference of 228,047 votes, exceeding Biden's thin margin of victory in Michigan of 154,188 votes.
What they're saying: Detroit is a powerful example of concentrated Black voting power in a critical battleground state, LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter, told Axios.
- She said that since the Civil Rights Movement, Black men and women have been the backbone of democracy in the U.S., mobilizing to drive key elections.
- "In a tight race, you can't afford your most dependable players not to participate. You need the ones who deliver the highest on the court. Black voters are that star player — they can make or break the outcome."
What we're watching: Whether city turnout exceeds 50%.
- Turnout surpassed that mark in 2020 (51%), 2012 (51%) and 2008 (53%) — all presidential elections in which the Democratic candidate won Michigan.
- In 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Michigan and won the election, Detroit's turnout was 49%.
The latest: On Thursday, City Clerk Janice Winfrey projected Detroit's turnout at 51%-55%.
- More than 22,000 have voted early in person and another 81,000 absentee ballots have been returned so far, she said.
What's next: Trump will campaign Friday at Macomb Community College in Warren. Meanwhile, Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz will speak that day in Detroit, Flint and Traverse City, per the Detroit News.