Where it all went wrong for RFK Jr.
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears set to transition from X-factor to ex-candidate — a dramatic descent for what had once seemed a historically consequential third-party candidacy.
Why it matters: Kennedy has said he'll address his "path forward" in a speech on Friday. Multiple outlets have reported he'll drop out and endorse former President Trump.
The big picture: Running against two historically unpopular candidates in Trump and President Biden, Kennedy consistently polled around 10% for much of this year, and considerably higher in some swing state polls.
- But Vice President Kamala Harris' entry into the race took the wind out of his sails. Democratic-leaning voters who had favored Kennedy over Biden swiftly flocked to Harris.
- A Pew Research Center survey conducted earlier this month found that Harris' 6-point bump from Biden's July standings largely came from those who had previously reported supporting or leaning toward Kennedy.
- Kennedy exiting the race would almost certainly help Trump, who tends to perform worse in polls when third-party candidates are included, Axios' Erin Doherty notes.
Flashback: The lawyer and anti-vaccine activist was previously a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, entering the race in April 2023 but dropping out before any votes were cast.
- He flirted with a Libertarian run but ultimately entered the general election as an independent last October.
- In a Reuters-Ipsos poll at the time — a little over one year from Election Day — 14% of respondents supported Kennedy.
Zoom in: Kennedy's campaign is now down to around 5% in the polls and burning through scarce cash.
- Reports Kennedy would soon drop out followed comments from his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, that the ticket could either hold on and hope to win at least 5% or "walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump."
- Trump told CNN Tuesday that he would "probably" bring Kennedy into his administration if he wins. In a leaked conversation last month, Trump can be heard telling Kennedy he would "love" for him to "do something" with his campaign.
- Kennedy had repeatedly insisted he was in the race to win it. The campaign did not comment when Axios asked if Kennedy was dropping out.
- Kennedy also faced some bad and bizarre headlines in recent months, from reports of unwanted sexual advances in the 1990s to an admission that he staged a dead bear cub in Central Park.
By the numbers: In June, Kennedy spent more than $6.2 million and raised only $5.4 million. By the end of July, he had only $3.9 million left in the bank.
What's next: Kennedy plans to address the nation Friday from Phoenix "about the present historical moment and his path forward."
- Trump is hosting an event in Phoenix on the same day.
