RFK Jr. struggles in upended 2024 race
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gives speech during the Bitcoin 2024 conference at Music City Center July 26 in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo: Jon Cherry/Getty Images
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was once seen as a major X factor in the 2024 election, but now he's struggling to find his footing.
Why it matters: Kennedy had a rare opportunity when chaos over President Biden's candidacy paralyzed the party. But Kennedy's poll numbers appear to be falling, his cash is dwindling and he's slowed his schedule.
- "By any metric, the campaign is certainly down momentum-wise than where it was at the beginning of the year," said Christopher Thrasher, a ballot access attorney and political consultant who has advised multiple independent and third party campaigns.
By the numbers: Recent polling shows Kennedy's support in the single digits. He was receiving as much as 15% in some polls earlier this year.
- A New York Times/Siena College poll found that 6% of registered voters said they would support Kennedy in a six-way contest.
- In a Quinnipiac University poll, 8% of registered voters said they'd vote for Kennedy in a six-way match up.
- A Wall Street Journal poll found Kennedy at 4% among registered voters.
Between the lines: Kennedy had been relying on the so-called "double haters" to fuel his bid. But with Vice President Kamala Harris' entry into the race, the voters dissatisfied with both candidates may be declining.
- Harris is also appealing to younger voters, a demographic that had been eyeing Kennedy.
Zoom in: When the Democratic Party quickly coalesced around Harris following Biden's decision to drop out of the race, Kennedy was slow to pivot his line of attacks.
- Kennedy largely focused his attacks on Biden during a press conference the day that he decided to step aside, not the candidate most likely replacing him.
The campaign has cancelled a number of public events — and missteps fueled speculation that he was considering ditching his bid.
- A leaked phone call between Kennedy and Trump during the Republican National Convention revealed the former president saying he would "love" for Kennedy to "do something" with his campaign.
- Kennedy apologized over the leaked video and reaffirmed his commitment to staying in the race.
The big picture: Adding to his struggles, Kennedy is burning through cash. He spent more than $6.2 million in June, while raising just $5.4 million.
- Part of Kennedy's financial troubles are driven by the expensive, complicated process of nationwide ballot access, struggles inherent to any third party campaign.
- "It's akin to running a marathon before you get to the starting line," Thrasher said of the ballot access process.
- Kennedy's campaign said this week that he has collected enough signatures for ballot access in 42 states.
The Kennedy campaign did not respond to Axios' request for comment.
The bottom line: "Historically, there's always a drop off from the polling numbers for an independent third party candidate to the vote totals," Thrasher told Axios.
- "What I think is a little bit of an anomaly in the case of the RFK Jr. campaign, is that drop seems to be happening well in advance of actual ballots being distributed, votes being taken."
- Still, even if Kennedy wins a smaller fraction of votes than was expected at the beginning of his 2024 campaign, it may tilt a close election.
Go deeper: RFK Jr. to get Secret Service protection after Trump rally shooting
