Nov 3, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Nevada's early data makes Senate Democrats sweat

Stephen Neukam

U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen takes the stage during a get-out-the-vote rally with former U.S. President Barack Obama as he campaigns for Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. — U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen at Cheyenne High School on October 19, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Democratic sources are increasingly worried that the Nevada Senate race has tightened significantly in its final days, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: A surprise loss in Nevada would almost certainly mean that Democrats will lose their majority in the Senate next year.

Republicans hold a rare early vote lead over Democrats, with the data showing a motivated GOP base in the state.
Democratic sources on Monday told Axios that they remain worried about early voting data from over the weekend, and that the party could be in hot water in the state.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) held a polling lead for essentially the entire campaign.

The big picture: Republicans have cast 45,000 more early votes in Nevada than Democrats, according to state data updated Saturday.

Nevada Republican Sam Brown, challenging Rosen, is trying to tie himself to former President Trump, hoping the top of the ticket will help him across the finish line.
A PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) recently blitzed the state with over $6 million in new ads, with one commercial saying: "President Trump and Nevada need Sam Brown in the Senate."

Yes, but: The Rosen campaign and national Dems are hoping that the GOP early voting push is followed by a lackluster election day turnout.

Around a third of Republicans in Clark County (the state's most populous) who voted on Election Day in 2020 have already voted early this year.

The bottom line: Democratic sources have repeatedly stressed that the Nevada Senate race would be closer than what public polls were showing, and that is what the early voting data appears to show.

Rosen's polling lead tightened by over two total points in the last two weeks of the race, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) won her Senate race by less than a percentage point just two years ago.

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Nevada's early data makes Senate Democrats sweat

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