Axios

In the coming months, the decisions world leaders make — and their ability to communicate them effectively — could determine whether millions live or die, and whether the global economy stays afloat.

What to watch: Nations are judging their leaders on a daily basis. They may ultimately be revered or reviled based on the decisions they make now. Some may emerge with new powers that last well beyond the outbreak.

President Trump struck a new tone at Monday's coronavirus press briefing, suggesting that social distancing restrictions will be lifted "fairly soon" and that the U.S. has learned enough lessons to re-open the economy despite the ongoing pandemic: “I’m not looking at months, I can tell you that right now.”

Why it matters: Trump and some of his political and economic advisers are losing patience with public health experts who believe that easing restrictions and returning to normal life before "flattening the curve" could overwhelm the health system.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi unveiled on Monday a sweeping counterproposal to Senate Republicans' $1.8 trillion coronavirus stimulus package.

Why it matters: House Democrats' legislation — which comes with a $2.5 trillion price tag — comes after negotiations between Capitol Hill leaders and the White House broke down over the weekend, culminating in two failed procedural votes that have left the Senate Republicans' bill in limbo.

Just a week after getting everyone on board with a coronavirus lockdown, President Trump is already teasing its end.

Between the lines: It's hard not to sympathize with folks who are asked to shoulder an unfair share of the burden when they aren't the ones calling the shots.

A journalist in the White House press corps is suspected to have contracted COVID-19, White House Correspondents Association president Jon Karl announced Monday.

Why it matters: The daily press briefings held by the White House's coronavirus task force often see reporters and public officials sharing tight spaces that may violate the CDC's guidance for large gatherings.

"A man has died and his wife is under critical care after the couple, both in their 60s, ingested chloroquine phosphate, an additive commonly used at aquariums to clean fish tanks," which is also part of one of the antimalaria drugs that President Trump has mentioned in recent days, according to Banner Health, the hospital system that treated both patients.

Why it matters: People who attempt to self-medicate risk serious side effects or death, and it's why any messaging about chloroquine and the related hydroxychloroquine should emphasize that these drugs have not been approved to prevent or treat the new coronavirus.

A procedural vote on Senate Republicans' $1.8 trillion Phase 3 stimulus package failed on Monday for the second time in less than 24 hours.

The big picture: Patience is wearing thin on Capitol Hill as talks over providing desperately needed aid to Americans and businesses continue to stall.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Monday temporarily relaxed certain policy guidelines that could allow manufacturers to produce more ventilators.

Why it matters: Automakers, parts suppliers and other industrial companies have offered to lend their manufacturing expertise in a wartime-like mobilization to combat the global pandemic. But without some easing of the FDA's strict validation process for medical devices, it can't happen.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has tested negative for COVID-19, her spokesperson said Monday, per AP.

The big picture: The 65-year-old went into self-quarantine Sunday after she learned that a doctor who had given her a pneumococcal infection vaccination tested positive for the illness. She will receive further testing in the coming days, according to the spokesperson.

Go deeper: Germany bans public gatherings of more than 2 people

President Trump's top economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Fox News Monday that the economic damage caused by enforced social distancing to combat the coronavirus is "just too great," echoing a tweet from the president Sunday night that "the cure can't be worse than the disease."

Why it matters: As Axios' Jonathan Swan has reported, the end of the administration's "15 Days to Slow the Spread" plan will likely result in a clash between public health experts and Trump's political and economic advisers, who are itching to see the economy reopen as stocks tumble and unemployment skyrockets.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) tweeted Monday that he is basing his decisions for coronavirus policy on information from "healthcare professionals like Dr. Fauci and others, not political punditry."

Why it matters: In an apparent public rebuke, Graham added a link to a Washington Post article about the Trump administration's signals that it might move to loosen restrictions on businesses at the end of the White House's 15-day social distancing period as an economic salve, as reported by Axios' Jonathan Swan. "There is no functioning economy unless we control the virus," he said.

The past couple of days have seen a wave of partnerships between government and private tech companies (or individuals) to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.

Why it matters: The federal and state governments need private-sector help to navigate the crisis but can offer key resources and information that private actors otherwise couldn't access.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) was one of several senators who came under fire last week after disclosing that they had sold large amounts of stock just before large swaths of the American economy shut down due to the coronavirus outbreak.

The big picture: Many of Johnson's colleagues should indeed be scrutinized by the SEC and/or the Department of Justice, but Johnson himself hasn't done anything worthy of investigation.

Senate Republicans' version of the "phase 3" coronavirus stimulus, which stalled in a procedural vote last night, would provide $3 billion for the White House plan to buy 77 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

What we're watching: Whether Capitol Hill negotiations on this or subsequent bills will address the renewable power sectors' push — backed by some Democrats — to modify and extend availability of tax incentives.

People around the world are stuck indoors without gyms to visit or recreational sports to participate in, which has made outdoor exercise difficult.

Why it matters: This has left golf — played on wide-open plots of land and doesn't require people to share equipment or come into close contact — as a rare athletic escape.

FS1 broadcast a NASCAR race Sunday, and a lot of things felt familiar, from the pre-race prayer and national anthem to camera shots of the leaders and a racetrack lined with billboards.

One big difference: It was a video game. Real NASCAR drivers were behind the wheels, but they were racing on a digital track from the comfort of their living rooms using a platform called iRacing.

The International Olympic Committee acknowledged for the first time Sunday that it may have to postpone the Tokyo 2020 Games — an outcome that once felt impossible but now, amid mounting external pressure, feels inevitable.

The state of play: The IOC set a four-week deadline for a decision and added that canceling the Games is not under consideration because that "would not solve any of the problems or help anybody."

Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Science magazine that he "can't jump in front of the microphone" if President Trump says something incorrect during the White House's coronavirus briefings.

Behind the scenes: "The next time they sit down with him and talk about what he’s going to say, they will say, by the way, Mr. President, be careful about this and don't say that," Fauci said.

"I want America to understand: This week, it's going to get bad," Surgeon General Jerome Adams said Monday on NBC's "Today," referring to the coronavirus outbreak in the United States.

Why it matters: The U.S. has reported more than 35,000 coronavirus cases and 371 deaths from the virus, making it the third-largest outbreak in the world, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

New data from CivicScience provided first to Axios shows that marketing of the phrase "flatten the curve," encouraging people to slow the spread of coronavirus through measures such as social distancing, is most effective for people with higher levels of educational attainment.

Why it matters: "Those with less education report varying degrees of skepticism and denial," CivicScience analysts say in their latest report accompanying the data. "And that skepticism may remain for some, at least until more on-the-ground data can confirm whether social distancing, mandated closures and other measures to flatten the curve are making a difference."

The shock of the U.S. economy coming to a halt as more cities and states shut down businesses will be severe if lawmakers don't act quickly.

What's happening: AARP's latest study tracking U.S. household savings is based on a "yes" or "no" response to the following question: "Does your household have an emergency savings account?"

The Trump administration is urging commercial labs to prioritize testing inpatients for the novel coronavirus, Vice President Mike Pence said Sunday, a reflection of how we're prioritizing America's woefully inadequate supply of diagnostic tests.

Why it matters: A high-profile example of the pitfalls of this strategy — which essentially means that only the sickest patients get tested — is Sen. Rand Paul's positive diagnosis. Paul is asymptomatic, but recently was in close contact with other senators, leading them to self-quarantine.

President Trump and some of his senior officials are losing patience with the doctors’ orders.

The state of play: Amid dire predictions for jobs and the economy, the White House is beginning to send signals to business that there's light at the end of the tunnel — that the squeeze from nationwide social distancing won't be endless.

With the in-person economy in the U.S. essentially shut down, the internet has never been more critical. The key question now is how well the network can handle the unprecedented demand.

Why it matters: Europe's networks have already come under strain, and if cloud services and internet service providers here falter, "shelter in place" could get a lot rougher.

The COVID-19 pandemic is caused by a virus humans haven't encountered before — meaning our bodies have no built-in immunity to it and researchers are frantically working to learn more about it.

Why it matters: While there are important lessons to be learned from other pandemic flus and even seasonal flu outbreaks, the coronavirus pandemic is new and not exactly comparable, making predictions, policies and treatments all the more difficult.

If you think your new reality is inconvenient and stressful, here's some perspective: Tens of millions of people are trying to stave off the coronavirus without reliable access to basic needs like shelter, food or health care.

Why it matters: The people who were already vulnerable in a strong economy are facing severe hardship as jobs evaporate overnight and safety net services are strained to the max.

While you might be tired of all of the doom and gloom that's been written about the economy over the past two weeks amid the coronavirus outbreak, there's an even more depressing fact to consider: there is nothing bright and hopeful to say right now.

The state of play: Congress' failure Sunday night to pass a major stimulus program illustrates once again how dysfunctional our government has become and how at risk the world is for catastrophe.

Former Vice President Joe Biden said in a letter Monday to President Trump and other conservatives challenging the Affordable Care Act that the novel coronavirus outbreak shows why they should drop their legal case.

Why it matters: The 2020 candidate sent the letter on the 10th anniversary of former President Obama signing the act into law. Biden suggested the lawsuit they're supporting threatens protections the ACA provides at a time when Americans are "anxious and afraid about the impact the deadly COVID-19 pandemic is already having on their lives, their families, and their ability to pay their bills."

More than half of college students say either they or their friends have gone to bars, parties, restaurants or other social gatherings in the last week, according to a new College Reaction poll.

Why it matters: The findings underscore how messages from political leaders and health authorities about the critical importance of social distancing to slow the spread of the virus haven't taken hold with younger Americans.

Hospitals are asking retired doctors and nurses to come back and help with operations as they prepare for a rush of severe coronavirus cases.

The bottom line: Retired clinicians likely won't be placed in intensive care units or coronavirus testing stations, because older adults are at higher risk of falling ill and dying from the virus. But they could help stabilize hospitals that will need as many hands on deck as possible over the coming months.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has launched an online self-checker for the novel coronavirus in the form of a bot named Clara.

Why it matters: Clara can act as a triage for health care providers, who are under increasing strain from a surge in COVID-19 cases. There are more than 35,000 cases in the U.S. — the third-highest in the world after China and Italy as of early Monday, according to Johns Hopkins data.

Actor Tom Hanks said in a statement posted to Twitter Sunday night that he and his wife, Rita Wilson, "feel better" two weeks on from experiencing their first symptoms of the novel coronavirus in Australia.

Why it matters: Per the statement of Hanks, who's in self-isolation with Wilson at a home in the state of Queensland: "Sheltering in place works like this: You don't give it to anyone — You don't get it from anyone. Common sense, no? Going to take a while, but if we take care of each other, help where we can, and give up some comforts... this, too, shall pass. We can figure this out."

President Trump told a news conference Sunday that he's activated the National Guard to assist Washington, California and New York to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Why it matters: As Trump noted, all three states "have been hit the hardest" by the outbreak. Major disaster declarations have been approved for New York and Washington state and California's request will be granted soon, Trump said.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has tested positive for the coronavirus, his office announced on Twitter Sunday.

Why it matters: He's the first U.S. senator to test positive. According to his office, Paul is asymptomatic and was not aware of making direct contact with an infected person.

The government of Singapore is tracing the coronavirus in ways that are simultaneously impressive and terrifying for those who worry about high-tech dictatorship.

The latest example: On Saturday, a friend living there received a WhatsApp message from the Singaporean government with instructions to download a new coronavirus tracing app called "TraceTogether."