GDP data: OECD, BoA Global Research; Coronavirus data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Economists have removed their rose-colored glasses in recent weeks and are beginning to price in scenarios for the world that are as bad or much worse than the global financial crisis.

The state of play: "If you think about the situation going into the financial crisis, I would say all things being equal there was clearly a better ability to react economically … in Europe and in Japan and also in the U.S.," Thomas Holzheu, Americas chief economist at reinsurance giant Swiss Re, tells Axios.

  • "Since we see that the global economy is not in a very resilient situation in terms of the ability to organize and muster a very strong policy response, we expect that the recovery will not happen very quickly."

The big picture: The U.S., the world's biggest economy, is likely to have a recession this year and the No. 2 economy, China, has already undergone a significant slowdown.

  • That alone would have been enough to weigh on global growth, but because major economies like Italy, Germany, the U.K., France and Japan also are facing major outbreaks of their own, there is growing fear of the entire world's GDP growth turning negative for multiple quarters this year.
  • As of Monday night, 15 countries had at least 1,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus, and 12 of those were among the world's 25 largest economies.

Worse, many of the countries expected to be hardest hit by the outbreak are in some of the weakest economic positions, especially those in the eurozone.

  • EU regulations have handicapped the ability of local politicians to easily increase spending and the European Central Bank already is employing unprecedented levels of stimulus.
  • Many countries were struggling with low growth even before the virus — Swiss Re did not include a single eurozone G7 country in its list of top 10 most resilient economies.

The big picture: A major struggle for policymakers is that much of the outbreak's economic impact is not yet measurable. That makes preparing for and assessing the potential for damage a new challenge.

  • "This is a true external shock that happens very quickly and very strongly and is totally synchronized," Holzheu says. "We know that there are impacts happening right now and we don’t necessarily see it in a lot of the metrics yet. But still we need to make assumptions about possible implications."

Go deeper: One way to fight a coronavirus recession: $1,000 for every American

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Judge orders Eric Trump to testify in New York probe before election

Photo: Ira L. Black/Corbis via Getty Images

A judge on Wednesday ordered Eric Trump to comply with a subpoena to testify in a New York probe into his family business before the presidential election.

The state of play: New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) last month said her office had filed a lawsuit to compel the Trump Organization to comply with subpoenas related to an investigation into whether President Trump and his company improperly inflated the value of its assets on financial statements.

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Silicon Valley venture capitalists are no longer content with investing in startups and then eventually handing them off. Instead, many are now forming SPACs, or blank-check acquisition companies, to ride tech unicorns into the public markets themselves.

Axios Re:Cap digs into this trend with the co-founders of a new tech SPAC called Reinvent Technology Partners: Reid Hoffman, a co-founder of LinkedIn and partner at Greylock, and Mark Pincus, the founder and former CEO of Zynga.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 2:30 p.m. ET: 31,717,955 — Total deaths: 973,014 Total recoveries: 21,795,005Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 2:30 p.m. ET: 6,913,046 — Total deaths: 201,319 — Total recoveries: 2,646,959 — Total tests: 96,612,436Map.
  3. Health: CDC director says over 90% of Americans have not yet been exposed to coronavirus — Supply shortages continue to plague testing.
  4. Politics: Fauci clashes with Rand Paul at COVID hearing: "You're not listening" — FDA chief vows agency will not accept political pressure on coronavirus vaccine.
  5. Vaccines: Johnson & Johnson begins large phase 3 trial — The FDA plans to toughen standards.
  6. Sports: Less travel is causing the NBA to see better basketball.

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