Axios

The continental U.S. could challenge its record for the hottest summer to date, according to the latest seasonal climate outlook released Thursday and other recent data. For millions along the Gulf Coast, the heat and humidity have already begun.

Why it matters: Heat is the top weather-related killer in the U.S. in a typical year. A combination of factors is coming together to make this summer particularly hazardous for the Lower 48 states.

The Biden administration is ending a key solar tariff exemption in a move long sought by domestic manufacturers.

Why it matters: It's another front in the ongoing solar trade wars that could bolster nascent efforts to make solar panels in the U.S. — and divide the industry.

Driving the news: Officials this morning said they're removing a tariff exemption for bifacial panels.

• Those two-sided panels are the main technology used in large solar installations.
• Biden had extended the exemption from the "section 201" levies in 2022, with support from renewables developers and trade groups. Manufacturers and some lawmakers had been lobbying to nix it.

🛫 CNX Resources and KeyState Energy hope to build a major hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel plant on Pittsburgh International Airport property — but there's a big asterisk.

• State of play: They announced a letter of intent to "advance" the $1.5 billion project but caution it depends on how the Treasury Department structures hydrogen tax credits in the 2022 climate law.
• Why it matters: It underscores the high stakes of Treasury's looming decisions. Axios Pro's Jael Holzman recently reported that Fortescue's projects are in doubt, absent changes in renewables provisions in Treasury's draft plan.

A new analysis sees much lower investment in U.S. low-carbon projects if Donald Trump beats Joe Biden.

Why it matters: Wood Mackenzie has taken a stab at putting numbers around the election outcomes.

The big picture: Their "base case" sees $7.7 trillion in capital investment from 2023-2050, a tally that includes fossil fuels and low-carbon sources alike.

• But power changing hands informs a "delayed transition" that sees $1 trillion less on the low-carbon side — even though an outright repeal of the 2022 climate law is highly unlikely.

How it works: Trump policy changes would directly and indirectly deter some climate-friendly energy investments.

All eyes are turned eastward as Russia tries to convince China to back the long-proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.

Why it matters: As Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a two-day state visit, the market and geopolitical stakes are huge — especially following the massive decline in Russian gas flows to Europe since the invasion of Ukraine.

Smoldering combustion beneath northwest Canada's boreal forests has emerged onto the dry surface, re-igniting into fast-moving flames amid unusually warm, dry and windy conditions.

Why it matters: The fires that have emerged this month are a threat to homes and businesses and show how a wildfire season worsened by climate change can defy a clear end date.

The rise of artificial intelligence is changing the landscape for tech firms and energy companies.

State of play: Microsoft divulged on Wednesday that its 2023 emissions were 29.1% above 2020 levels.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) declared on X Wednesday that a bill he signed that removes climate change as a priority in state energy policy would restore "sanity" and reject "the agenda of the radical green zealots."

Why it matters: The bill that would also ban offshore wind turbines and bolster natural gas expansion after taking effect on July 1 comes as climate change's effects are already impacting Florida — notably a dangerous heat wave threatening the state's south this week that's already broken temperature records.

A barge collided with a bridge in Galveston, Texas, on Wednesday morning, causing an oil spill into a Gulf Coast bay.

The big picture: No immediate injuries were reported, while traffic to one of the islands is temporarily halted, per local authorities.

With wildfires raging in western Canada and heat and drought leading to heightened fire risks in Mexico, the U.S. faces a fast start to the smoke season but a slower one when it comes to fires.

Why it matters: After last year's relatively inactive U.S. wildfire season, forecasters expect this fire season to be overall more active but likely not as extreme as the destructive years of 2020 or 2021.

Garnier, part of beauty giant L'Oreal, will announce the recipients of the brand's first-ever Gold Green Grant on Wednesday, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The awards — designed in partnership with Gold House, an organization focused on elevating Asian Pacific cultures — are aimed at helping Asian Pacific entrepreneurs strengthen their sustainable businesses and at promoting a group of leaders who can be misjudged by investors.

Climate change has made extended heat waves that have enveloped large parts of Asia far more likely and intense, according to a new analysis.

Why it matters: Extreme heat, spanning Lebanon to the Philippines since April, is being blamed for hundreds of deaths. It's added to the suffering of people who lack access to air conditioning, including displaced persons in the Middle East, the study notes.

President Biden's new tariffs on Chinese tech are just one move in an intricate struggle over trade in low-carbon energy equipment and inputs.

Why it matters: More fights loom as the White House looks to protect domestic manufacturers and court votes.

Officials in western Canada warned of "volatile wildfire activity," as dozens of blazes burn in dry conditions across the country, forcing thousands to evacuate and triggering air quality alerts in several U.S. states this week.

By the numbers: Most of the 134 blazes burning in the first major wildfires since Canada's record season that finally abated in October were in British Columbia (47) and Alberta (45) as of Tuesday evening, per the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre.