Google's 25th birthday and the next 25 years

1 big thing: Google turns 25

Illustration of the numbers "25" styled as stacked birthday cakes with the sponge layers in the colors of the Google logo, complete with a candle on top of each number. 

Why Netflix's stock surged through the writers strike

2. Charted: That was painful

3. What's happening

4. Women's barriers to advancement

5. Work hard, play hard

6. What they're saying

Today's newsletter is 689 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up, but nearly flat.

Biggest gainer? Norwegian Cruise Line (+5.8%), led a positive session along with other cruise line stocks with rival Carnival set to report earnings Friday.

Biggest decliner? NextEra Energy Partners (-8.2%), the renewable energy company, revised its growth expectations for the next few years.

Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller.

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Catch up on the day's biggest business stories and look ahead to important trends. Led by Hope King and Nathan Bomey.

Axios Closer

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1 big thing: Not a cause to smile

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2. Charted: Indirect effects

4. Birkenstock targets $9.2B IPO valuation

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5. Ring the alarm

Today's newsletter is 698 words, a 2.5-minute read.

Biggest gainer? Discover Financial Services (+4.8%), after disclosing a consent agreement with the FDIC, agreeing to improve consumer compliance.

Biggest decliner? NextEra Energy (-9.0%), as investor concerns about high interest rates on the clean energy sector drove the stock to a 52-week low. 

Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Carlos Cunha.

1 big thing: Amazon sued by the FTC

Illustration of a gavel handle made from the Amazon logo

2. Charted: Journey of a billion Threads

4. Historic union stand

5. Mission accomplished ⚾️

Today's newsletter is 693 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 1.5%.

Biggest gainer? ResMed (+3.6%), the maker of medical devices and software applications. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Biggest decliner? Cintas (-5.3%), the uniform supplier, following its release of quarterly earnings, where its full-year earnings-per-share and revenue predictions disappointed investors.

Mental health needs a "megaphone" from business leaders, former U.S. surgeon general says

1 big thing: How are you?

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2. Shutdown looms

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4. UAW strike escalates

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5. Charted: 📚 Jobs tops Musk

6. What we're doing this weekend

🍁 And just like that... we've reached the end of Q3.

Today's newsletter is 622 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.3% today, and down 3.7% for the third quarter. The index is still up 12.1% year to date.

Biggest gainer? Nike (+6.7%), on fiscal first-quarter earnings that showed a rebound in gross margins.

Biggest decliner? Carnival Cruise Line (-5.0%), as concerns around fuel costs overshadowed earnings that showed strong customer demand and pricing power.

1 big thing: Government shutdown risks

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2. Charted: Length of shutdowns

4. What's next for Hollywood writers

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5. Shakira plans for 2024 tour

5. Shakira plans 2024 tour

Today's newsletter is 668 words, a 2.5-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 0.4%.

Biggest gainer? Sealed Air Corp. (+3.6%), after the packaging company got a stock upgrade from Citi.

Biggest decliner? Warner Bros. Discovery (-4.0%), as media company stocks saw mixed movement following news of a tentative agreement with Hollywood writers.

Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Egan Millard.

National

Why it matters: To this point, the company's overall path to growth has been strikingly straightforward. But its next 25 years are likely to look very different.

Context: Since its start in 1998, the axle to Google's wheel has been: Someone is looking for something.

From there, the company launched offshoots like Maps, bought YouTube and acquired ad platforms to make money from an ever-multiplying number of queries spun around its core competency.

Going forward, generative AI will have a huge impact on how consumers interact with Google and services like it.

In order to keep its throne, Google will need to do more than just "answer" our search queries, notes Axios' Ina Fried.

What they're saying: "[AI] may be bigger than the internet itself. It's a fundamental rewiring of technology," Google and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai wrote recently in a blog post.

AI, says Pichai, will now enable Google to think about building products that could help communities predict and prepare for natural disasters, or build personal tutoring services for students in any language.

Be smart: At least some analysts have viewed AI's boost to search as a game that's Google's to lose.

But the Google's success in AI doesn't rest solely on its consumer-facing products — powering AI for other companies through its cloud products is another huge opportunity.

The company claims 70% of generative AI unicorns are Google Cloud customers, Axios' Ryan Heath notes, a herd that at the moment likely numbers fewer than 10.

What's at stake in Google's antitrust trial

Straightforward searches drove much of Google's growth in its first 25 years.

Google

Google Search turns 25 today.Why it matters: To this point, the company&#x27;s overall path to growth has been strikingly <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="straightforward" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/10/26/alphabet-earnings-report-profit" data-vars-content-id="00161e87-f309-4efd-8e09-0a6e10c06d0c" data-vars-headline="Google&#x27;s 25th birthday and the next 25 years" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/10/26/alphabet-earnings-report-profit" target="_self">straightforward</a>. But its next 25 years are likely to look very different.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Portland

Axios Portland

Data: Yelp; Note: Openings are for the core-based statistical area (the population center and surrounding communities) and are measured by new business listings on Yelp, added by businesses or Yelp users; Chart: Axios Visuals

The number of businesses newly listed on Yelp across the Portland metro area continues a jagged climb out of the pandemic-driven shutdowns, with 437 openings in July, according to the company.

Why it matters: New business openings are a good measure of economic sentiment — people generally don't risk embarking on a new venture if they foresee economic peril ahead.

By the numbers: Yelp's July figures show a 20% increase in new business openings compared to this June — and a 22% increase from July 2022.

Compared to a year before the pandemic, new business listings on Yelp were 11%  higher in July than in Jan. 2019.

Be smart: The City of Portland's monthly list of new businesses shows twice as many openings in July than Yelp.

Portland's list includes sales of existing businesses to new owners, and businesses that may have been previously operating but hadn't registered with the city, county or state.

Yelp business openings refer to new business listings on the platform. Business owners or Yelp users can add listings, and data may lag.

The big picture: Business openings nationwide have exceeded 2019 levels every month this year and are on track to beat 2022's all-time high, thanks to a surge in travel, events and get-togethers.

Meanwhile, there have been more business openings nationally among underrepresented communities every month compared to last year.

Locally, that includes Community Wine Bar, where co-owners Vivianne Kennedy and Cristina Gonzales draw on their own backgrounds to create wine tastings and events that are welcoming to all.

New businesses in Portland area on upward trend

New business openings are a good measure of economic sentiment.

City economy

A line graph showing a jagged but steady overall rise since 2020.

The number of businesses newly listed on Yelp across the Portland metro area continues a jagged climb out of the pandemic-driven shutdowns, with 437 openings in July, according to the company.Why it matters: New business openings are a good measure of economic sentiment — people generally don&#x27;t risk embarking on a new venture if they foresee economic peril ahead.

News

Business

Zoom out: Business leaders talked a lot about the importance of mental health during the pandemic, but now that deal flow has returned, events are back in person and remote work policies are being curbed — it's less clear where wellness falls on the priority list.

Why it matters: While businesses continue to gain trust, many workers remain dissatisfied with the way workplace issues, including burnout, are handled.

Neglecting emotional welfare could threaten long-term economic stability and growth.

Driving the news: The second-ever gathering of all living former and current U.S. surgeons general convened Thursday afternoon at Dartmouth for a discussion about mental health.

Former U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams mused that Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg or Jeff Bezos could do better at motivating legislators to put funding toward "healthier communities" than anyone in his role.

"We as scientists and health officials need to reach out to and work with the business community so that they become our megaphones," he said. 

State of play: The vast majority of workers surveyed in April by the American Psychological Association say it is very or somewhat important to them to work for an organization that provides support for employee mental health and values psychological well-being.

Employees who experience burnout have a 180% increased risk of developing depressive disorders, an 84% increased risk of Type 2 diabetes and may experience short-term memory impairment and other cognitive process impairment, according to research.

What they're saying: "We have become professionals at putting masks on and walking around society ... like everything is going fine. Like we don't need any help," U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy said at the Dartmouth event. 

"But what it betrays is the reality ... that a lot of people are walking around suffering." 

What to watch: Burnout rates, which continue to climb, and more workers organizing for new benefits, including 4-day work weeks.

Go deeper: Workers want AI to help with burnout

Business leaders talked a lot about the importance of mental health during the pandemic, but now it's less clear where wellness falls on the priority list.

Occupational burnout

No, really — how are you?Zoom out: Business leaders talked a lot about the importance of mental health during the pandemic, but now that <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="deal flow" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/pro/health-tech-deals/2023/07/27/mergers-acquisitions-coming-back" data-vars-content-id="9995e18c-a7a5-47f2-ad84-c2bf771836af" data-vars-headline="Mental health needs a &quot;megaphone&quot; from business leaders, former U.S. surgeon general says" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/pro/health-tech-deals/2023/07/27/mergers-acquisitions-coming-back" target="_self">deal flow</a> has returned, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="events" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/evaluating-events-in-2023" data-vars-content-id="9995e18c-a7a5-47f2-ad84-c2bf771836af" data-vars-headline="Mental health needs a &quot;megaphone&quot; from business leaders, former U.S. surgeon general says" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/evaluating-events-in-2023" target="_self">events</a> are back in person and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="remote work" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/30/remote-work-amazon-nyt" data-vars-content-id="9995e18c-a7a5-47f2-ad84-c2bf771836af" data-vars-headline="Mental health needs a &quot;megaphone&quot; from business leaders, former U.S. surgeon general says" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/30/remote-work-amazon-nyt" target="_self">remote work</a> policies are being curbed — it&#x27;s less clear where wellness falls on the priority list.

Data: Yahoo! Finance; Chart: Axios Visuals

Maybe it's not a surprise that the company blamed for the Hollywood writer's strike was the same one whose stock price emerged higher coming out of it.

Context: Netflix in recent years has upended traditional norms of television and film production, their distribution and worker pay models.

But owing to the company's structural and strategic advantages, and the fact that it had already reached global scale in streaming — it was well positioned when the strike began compared to its rivals.

Zoom in: The streamer has a huge library of international content, and because many of its shows and films are produced abroad, not all workers were impacted by the strike, analysts have noted.

Without needing theaters and broadcast television to distribute its content, Netflix was also less exposed to broader consumer risks.

What to watch: More than 11,500 Hollywood writers are now eligible to return to work — which should jump-start production of most live talk shows in the coming days and weeks, Axios' Sara Fischer reports.

How quickly investors jump back into media stocks remains to be seen.

Go deeper: Hollywood writers' contract deal includes historic AI rules

Hollywood writers' contract deal includes historic AI rules

Many in Hollywood blamed the company for the writers strike, while Wall Street viewed it as best positioned to weather the production stoppages.

Netflix

chart showing different how stock prices of Disney, Netflix, Paramount Global and Warner Bros. Discovery changed between May 2, 2023 and Sept. 26, 2023

Maybe it&#x27;s not a surprise that the company <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="blamed" data-vars-click-url="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2023-05-08/writers-strike-netflix-wga-hollywood-labor" data-vars-content-id="aa049fd2-06b2-4f4f-bd97-1dba4fc7d1f3" data-vars-headline="Why Netflix&#x27;s stock surged through the writers strike" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2023-05-08/writers-strike-netflix-wga-hollywood-labor" target="_blank">blamed</a> for the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Hollywood writer&#x27;s strike" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/27/wga-strike-end" data-vars-content-id="aa049fd2-06b2-4f4f-bd97-1dba4fc7d1f3" data-vars-headline="Why Netflix&#x27;s stock surged through the writers strike" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/27/wga-strike-end" target="_self">Hollywood writer&#x27;s strike</a> was the same one whose stock price emerged higher coming out of it.Context: Netflix in recent years has upended traditional norms of television and film production, their distribution and worker pay models.

Data: Pew Research Center; Chart: Axios Visuals

Americans are still very far apart in their perceptions of barriers that women face in moving up in the workplace, new research from Pew Research reveals.

Driving the news: 55% of those surveyed in July this year say there are too few women in top executive business positions.

Of those, 79% say it would be ideal to have the same number of women and men in those roles.

When asked why there aren't more women at the top:

58% say women have to do more to prove themselves

50% say women in business face gender discrimination

48% say family responsibilities make it harder for women to move up

But when looking at results based on the gender and political affiliation of the responder, clear trends emerge.

Women, by large margins, were more likely than men to see nearly all of the potential obstacles presented in the survey as "major reasons" for the lack of women at the top.

And Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to see a variety of factors as serious challenges. 

What they're saying: "A lot of women have experienced these [issues] so they can extrapolate that to the experiences of women in even more powerful positions," Juliana Horowitz, Pew's associate director of research, tells Axios.

The results "also reflect broader views about the state of gender equality in the country," where Republican men and women "tend to think that things are where they should be."

Of note: Compared to results from the study in 2018, there's very little difference.

59% of those surveyed five years ago said there were too few women in top executive business positions, four percentage points higher than today.

60% at the time agreed that "women have to do more to prove themselves than men," compared to the 58% today.

And three more percentage points (74%) of women at the time agreed their "having to do more to prove themselves" was a major reason there weren't more women in top positions, compared to 45% (two more percentage points) of men.

The intrigue: The share of women CEOs in Fortune 500 companies has risen from 4.8% in 2018 to a record 10.6% in 2023.

The share of women Fortune 500 board members grew from 22.5% in 2018 to 30.4% in 2022.

Our thought bubble: How much more would these numbers have grown if more people were aligned on the perceived issues?

Go deeper: The easy life of "mediocre" men

Huge gender gaps remain in views of barriers women face at work: study

Americans are still very far apart when it comes to perceived barriers that women face in moving up in the workplace.

Women in business

Americans are still very far apart in their perceptions of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="barriers that women face" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/06/gender-gap-workplace-participation-statistics" data-vars-content-id="c1c13a33-ab5b-4694-b40a-9bdd39341196" data-vars-headline="Huge gender gaps remain in views of barriers women face at work: study" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/06/gender-gap-workplace-participation-statistics" target="_self">barriers that women face</a> in moving up in the workplace, new research from Pew Research reveals.Driving the news: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="55% of those surveyed" data-vars-click-url="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/27/how-americans-see-the-state-of-gender-and-leadership-in-business/" data-vars-content-id="c1c13a33-ab5b-4694-b40a-9bdd39341196" data-vars-headline="Huge gender gaps remain in views of barriers women face at work: study" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/27/how-americans-see-the-state-of-gender-and-leadership-in-business/" target="_blank">55% of those surveyed</a> in July this year say there are too few women in top executive business positions.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Hope King

Stories

Mental health needs a "megaphone" from business leaders, former U.S. surgeon general says

Google's 25th birthday and the next 25 years

Why Netflix's stock surged through the writers strike

Huge gender gaps remain in views of barriers women face at work: study

New businesses in Portland area on upward trend

Newsletter editions

SmileDirect's not smiling

😞 Workers and mental health

🥳 Google turns 25

⚖️ Amazon sued by FTC

🏛️ Gov shutdown fears