1 big thing: Southwest looks to turn the corner

Illustration of descending plane with a dollar sign vapor trail

2. Bonus chart: Stock turbulence 

3. What's happening

4. Toyota's Toyoda steps down

5. Big returns

6. What they're saying

Today's newsletter is 676 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 1.1%.

Biggest gainer? Tesla (11.0%), the company's Q4 results yesterday were stronger than expected.

Biggest decliner? Sherwin-Williams (-8.9%), the paint company, disappointed investors with Q4 sales and warned of limited visibility for the second half of 2023.

Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller.

Closer

Picture of a golden bell on a white background.

green

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories and look ahead to important trends. Led by Hope King and Nathan Bomey.

Axios Closer

1 big thing: Rethinking last in, first out

Close-up of briefcases in a vending machine.

2. Charted: TikTok is irresistible 

3. What’s happening 

4. Fed sounds cautious optimism

5. Beyoncé's world

6. What they’re saying 

Today's newsletter is 688 words, a 2½-minute read.

🚨 Situational awareness: Meta’s stock popped 19% after hours on a fourth-quarter revenue beat. (CNBC)

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 1.1%, rallying on the Fed's rate hike announcement (see below).

Biggest gainer? Advanced Micro Devices (+12.6%), the chip company, reported better-than-expected results after yesterday's close and showed strength in the pivotal server market. 

Biggest decliner? WestRock (-12.7%), the paper manufacturer, missed earnings expectations in its fiscal first quarter.

Editor's note: Yesterday we incorrectly wrote that the Super Bowl was the most-watched telecast in the world. It is the most watched in the U.S.

1 big thing: Corporate resilience 

Illustration of a giant stack of money in a briefcase

2. Charted: Exxon's record profit

4. Tesla's self-driving system draws probe

5. The NFL's "other" bowl

Today's newsletter is 694 words, a 2.5-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 1.5%, capping its best opening month since 2019. 

Biggest gainer? A.O. Smith (+13.7%), the water systems manufacturer, following strong Q4 earnings.

Biggest decliner? Phillips 66 (-5.8%), the oil & gas refiner, on lower-than-expected quarterly earnings. 

Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Carlos Cunha.

1 big thing: Ford taps "convenience age" 

2. Charted: January was pretty dry

4. A view from the SPAC market

5. Marie Kondo really is one of us 

It's been a long, busy week. Wishing you a restful weekend.

Situational awareness: Elon Musk is embroiled in yet another legal drama, with the SEC probing the billionaire's claims about Tesla's self-driving capabilities. 

Today's newsletter is 687 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%, extending the week's gains.

Biggest gainer? Tesla (11%), with investors still cheering its Q4 results.

Biggest decliner? Hasbro (8.1%), after warning about a weak holiday season and plans to cut 15% of its workforce.

1 big thing: Increasing trauma support 

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2. Charted: Earnings, earnings, earnings 

3. What’s happening

4. EV price war is here

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5. What they’re saying 

We hope you had a good start to the week. 

Today's newsletter is 653 words, a 2.5-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 1.3%.

Biggest gainer? Cincinnati Financial (+5.8%), the insurance company, released preliminary Q4 results and raised its dividend.

Biggest decliner? Tesla (-6.3%), as analysts continue to debate the likely impact of price cuts on its profit margin. (See below.)

National

Data: SoftBank Investment Advisers; Chart: Axios Visuals

Hiring and retaining people for high-growth tech companies has become easier as economic conditions have changed, new insights from a global survey of CEOs show.

Why it matters: The findings are the latest indication that the tech sector is undergoing a massive talent reshuffling.

Driving the news: More than 70% of CEOs who lead a portfolio company of SoftBank's Vision and Latin America Funds say that talent acquisition (74%) and retention (72%) was easier in 2022 than 2021, according to a November 2022 SoftBank Investment Advisers survey shared first with Axios.

A separate survey from ZipRecruiter previously found that about 80% of recently laid-off tech company workers found a new job within three months of starting their search.

What they're saying: "The [tech] industry is nowhere near done with layoffs [as it] struggles with making this chasm shift from ... 'How do we grow as fast as possible' to 'How do we get more efficient about our growth,'" Lydia Jett, managing partner at SoftBank Investment Advisers, told Axios in an interview.

The big picture: Jett sees the economy generally as being healthy, and the layoffs as an opportunity for companies to "up-skill their talent and hire more experienced people."

"Even my companies that are laying off people are at the same time hiring ... because I think there is a really, relatively strong economy underpinning all of this right now."

What to watch: While the majority (67%) of CEOs who responded say they see 2023 as a year to "conserve cash and stabilize the business," around 1 in 5 say they see this year as one to "invest aggressively to gain market share," and roughly the same number saying "invest aggressively in product."

Of note: While SoftBank Group reported its first quarterly profit in three quarters for Q3 2022, the Vision Fund continued to write down some of its bets where losses were roughly $10 billion as VCs across the board struggled against a changing rate environment.

Methodology: Surveyed leaders span across a wide range of sectors, including consumer, health tech, fintech and enterprise tech companies.

Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to reflect that 20% said they saw this as a year to “invest aggressively to gain market share” and 23% as one to “invest aggressively in product” (and not 43% saying they would do either).

The pandemic surge in entrepreneurship is still going strong 

Exclusive: Global CEO survey from SoftBank shows hiring and retention challenges easing

A tech reset has prompted another massive shuffle of labor.

Big Tech

Hiring and retaining people for high-growth tech companies has become easier as economic conditions have changed, new insights from a global survey of CEOs show.Why it matters: The findings are the latest indication that the tech sector is undergoing a massive talent reshuffling.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Say Technologies, a Robinhood subsidiary, is launching a new messaging feature that enables public companies to send tailored communications directly to retail investors within its network, and allows them to respond. 

Why it matters: Newer trading apps, including Robinhood, Public and WeBull, are all competing for younger investors, and building ways to connect companies directly with shareholders. 

Individual investors — through retail and private banks, wealth managers, and self-directed accounts — are expected to dominate global investing by 2030, making up more than 61% of worldwide assets. 

That necessitates a shift toward more multi-channel, virtual and conversational communications, a report from consultancy Indefi concluded last year.

How it works: Right now, there are about 50 companies that compensate Say, based on their size and depth of engagement with verified shareholders.

Existing features like Q&A and shareholder proxy voting aim to gather feedback. The new messaging function can build a better direct relationship between companies and their shareholders.

Our thought bubble: According to Alexander Lebow, co-founder and CEO of Say Technologies, retail investors generally tend to be more pro-management. Therefore, companies that engage with shareholders could mobilize that base against activists proposals. 

What they're saying: "We don't take sides ... we're on [a] multi-decade project ... to totally reconstruct the shareholder communications infrastructure," Lebow tells Axios in an interview.

At the same time, Lebow said that Say has also discovered that public companies view new forms of engagement as "interesting in the activism defense world," because of how costly attacks can be.

"These are existential situations for the companies. And we have access ... to not just to get the message out to large numbers of shareholders, but get them to vote," he said.

The big picture: Because Say's platform enables voting and messaging in one place, the ease has already proven successful in driving retail voting — "the Holy Grail of retail engagement," according to Lebow. 

What to watch: Millions of investors have used Say's proxy voting and Q&A services, and the company's APIs mean "other brokerage platforms, whoever wants to incorporate our experiences in [their] app, can do so."

CEOs are finding new ways to court and communicate with retail investors

Exclusive: Robinhood-owned Say launches shareholder messaging

Public companies are adapting to shareholder interest and preference for communications.

Investments

illustration of chat bubble in shape of a briefcase

Say Technologies, a Robinhood subsidiary, is launching a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="new messaging feature " data-vars-click-url="https://www.saytechnologies.com/blog/introducing-shareholder-messages" data-vars-content-id="7a30c563-a0f3-4479-8c3a-baad89c46461" data-vars-headline="Exclusive: Robinhood-owned Say launches shareholder messaging" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.saytechnologies.com/blog/introducing-shareholder-messages" target="_blank">new messaging feature </a>that enables public companies to send tailored communications directly to retail investors within its network, and allows them to respond. Why it matters: Newer trading apps, including Robinhood, Public and WeBull, are all competing for younger investors, and building ways to connect companies <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="directly with shareholders" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/04/29/ceos-retail-investors-earnings" data-vars-content-id="7a30c563-a0f3-4479-8c3a-baad89c46461" data-vars-headline="Exclusive: Robinhood-owned Say launches shareholder messaging" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/04/29/ceos-retail-investors-earnings" target="_self">directly with shareholders</a>. <ul><li>Individual investors — through retail and private banks, wealth managers, and self-directed accounts — are expected to dominate global investing by 2030, making up more than 61% of worldwide assets. </li><li>That necessitates a shift toward more multi-channel, virtual and conversational communications, a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.indefi.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Indefi-Strategy-The-Future-is-Now.pdf" data-vars-content-id="7a30c563-a0f3-4479-8c3a-baad89c46461" data-vars-headline="Exclusive: Robinhood-owned Say launches shareholder messaging" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.indefi.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Indefi-Strategy-The-Future-is-Now.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> from consultancy Indefi concluded last year.</li></ul>

Mental health professionals are seeing an increase in requests from companies for trauma support training.

Why it matters: From self-care practices to recognizing the physiological impacts of trauma, more organizations have realized that workers can't just be expected to handle the trauma on their own, according to Ruth Yeo-Peterman, a resilience programming trainer with the Center for Victims of Torture.

By the numbers: An overwhelming majority of employers (91%) surveyed through wellness management platform Wellable say they expect to invest more in mental health programs for employees this year. 

That's up from 66% pre-pandemic, in 2018.

State of play: Sources of stress on U.S. workers go well beyond the pandemic.

The country has seen more than 39 mass shootings so far this year in fewer than 30 days. 

And last week provided yet another example of police brutality with the release of a video showing the "inhumane" and fatal beating of 29-year-old Tyre Nichols.

What they're saying: "We're experiencing a lot of compounded trauma," says Nicole Weis, director of community training and empowerment at the Lyda Hill Institute for Human resilience.

"We're also still reacting from the pandemic. We're reacting from global climate crises. We're reacting from the economy ... the war in Ukraine — there's all of these compounding stressors on us," says Weis.

Between the lines: Trauma is defined by an experience — isolated or ongoing —that impacts someone's sense of control and quality of health, Yeo-Peterman explains.

Secondary, or vicarious trauma, is a unique experience of taking on someone else's trauma through exposure to or information about it.

Injustices within workplaces and organizations can compound traumatic stress, as well, so it's important to build in ways to deal with trauma on all those levels, she adds. 

For people experiencing trauma, Yeo-Peterman advises taking to self-care with "little sips of practice."

 "You don't have to drink the whole cup of tea at one time," she says. Taking little sips of care throughout the day can help make self-care sustainable.

Finding even small ways to feel like you can participate and take action within an organization, or in your life, can also help protect against the effects of trauma and help process it as well, she adds. 

Managers and employers, Weis says, can offer space and boundaries, stay updated on resources for employees, and harness social support.

For example, giving time back to employees for their mental health by cancelling meetings; communicating when new therapy services become available; and getting teams together for fun outings or activities. 

What to watch: "It's completely normal to feel distracted, to have trouble sleeping, to feel a little anxious" for a few days or weeks after an event has taken place, says Weis.

If it’s been more than three or four weeks and things are still not feeling better or have gotten worse, you or your team may want to seek professional help, she adds. 

Our thought bubble: Not all companies have the resources for employee mental health support. Not all managers are empathetic. If you're lucky enough to have either or both, please consider reaching out or placing yourself in the shoes of  people who don't — especially as you interact with them.  

Trauma support in high demand from companies amid relentless wave of tragedies

More organizations have realized that workers can't just be expected to handle the trauma on their own.

abstract illustration of two hands holding one another

Mental health

Mental health professionals are seeing an increase in requests from companies for trauma support training.Why it matters: From self-care practices to recognizing the physiological impacts of trauma, more organizations have realized that workers can&#x27;t just be expected to handle the trauma on their own, according to Ruth Yeo-Peterman, a resilience programming trainer with the Center for Victims of Torture.

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

Four actors of Asian descent — Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu, Ke Huy Quan and Hong Chau — received Oscar nominations Tuesday morning.

Why it matters: It's the largest group of performers of Asian descent to be recognized in primary acting categories in a single year, Variety notes.

Yeoh, Hsu and Quan are nominated for their performances in "Everything Everywhere All at Once," and Chau for her performance in "The Whale."

Yeoh is also making history as the first, self-identified actress of Asian descent nominated for the lead actress award in the Oscars' nearly 100-year history.

What they're saying: "It's taken a long time. But I think this is more than me,” Yeoh told The Hollywood Reporter after the nominations were announced.

"Having Asians walking up to me saying, ‘You can do it, you’re doing it for us.’ It’s like, ‘I understand. I totally understand.’ All this time, they’ve not been recognized, they’ve not been heard.”

As nominations were announced, Yeoh said she was afraid of letting so many people down if her name wasn't called.

"It’s been my nightmare for the last two days, because it could happen, right? How am I gonna walk out that door? And all these disappointed Asian faces looking: ‘Why did you not do it for us?’”

The big picture: The Oscars’ best actress category has been one of the awards body’s "whitest and least diverse ... among the four acting races," according to THR.

The academy has been trying to diversify its membership following   #OscarsSoWhite outcries in 2015 and 2016, The New York Times notes.

Our thought bubble: While the makeup of a nominating organization is important, the full creation pipeline — from story selection and scripts, to producers, casting and marketing — needs to exist in a way that builds opportunities for talent of different backgrounds to shine.

What to watch: The ceremony for the 95th Academy Awards is expected to air on ABC on March 12.

Viewership for the live broadcast has plummeted by more than 72% since its highs in the late 90s.

Oscar Best Picture nominees have highest total box office numbers

Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu make 2023 Oscars history

For the first time in its nearly 100-year history, an Asian-identifying performer has been nominated for lead actress.

"Everything Everywhere All at Once" stars Michelle Yeoh (left) and Stephanie Hsu. Photos: Amy Sussman/Getty Images (left),  Frazer Harrison/Getty Images

Oscars

Media

Four actors of Asian descent — Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu, Ke Huy Quan and Hong Chau — received Oscar nominations Tuesday morning.Why it matters: It&#x27;s the largest group of performers of Asian descent to be recognized in primary acting categories in a single year, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Variety notes" data-vars-click-url="https://variety.com/2023/awards/awards/oscars-asian-actors-history-diversity-1235499840/" data-vars-content-id="b2f24ea7-8d63-455e-adc6-25d3bc983f6b" data-vars-headline="Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu make 2023 Oscars history" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://variety.com/2023/awards/awards/oscars-asian-actors-history-diversity-1235499840/" target="_blank">Variety notes</a>.

Walmart will raise hourly wages for store workers to an average of more than $17.50, up from $17, the company told U.S.-based employees Tuesday.

Why it matters: The labor market for the retail sector is perennially tight, with nearly 600,000 job openings every year on average over the next decade, or about 14% of total jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"Most of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to different occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire," the BLS notes.

For context, the percentage of open jobs on average for software developers — one of the fastest growing jobs — is about 8% on average over next decade.

Details: Store workers who currently earn between $12 and $18 an hour will make between $14 and $19 an hour starting in early March, Walmart spokesperson Anne Hatfield told CNBC.

Roughly 340,000 people will see their pay bumped, or about 21% of Walmart's 1.6 million employees. 

The big picture: Walmart's move brings wages roughly in line with Amazon, which last year increased pay for warehouse and delivery workers to between $16 and $26 per hour, or an average $19 an hour.

Target last year increased its minimum wage to as high as $24 an hour.

The labor market's weird response to higher rates 

The booming labor market isn't cooperating with the Fed

The unpredictable consumer frustrates forecasting

NW Arkansas

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A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Northwest Arkansas, written by local reporters.

Axios Northwest Arkansas Thought Bubble

Axios Northwest Arkansas

Walmart raising wages for hourly U.S. workers

High churn in retail prompts more wage hikes among big retailers.

Walmart

Walmart will raise hourly wages for store workers to an average of more than $17.50, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="up from $17" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmart-to-raise-wages-for-u-s-hourly-workers-11674577513?mod=hp_lead_pos2" data-vars-content-id="cc1816f8-20a8-4dfc-a1cf-ecb6460135cc" data-vars-headline="Walmart raising wages for hourly U.S. workers" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmart-to-raise-wages-for-u-s-hourly-workers-11674577513?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank">up from $17</a>, the company told U.S.-based employees <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Tuesday" data-vars-click-url="https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2023/01/24/continuing-to-strengthen-our-jobs-and-invest-in-our-people" data-vars-content-id="cc1816f8-20a8-4dfc-a1cf-ecb6460135cc" data-vars-headline="Walmart raising wages for hourly U.S. workers" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2023/01/24/continuing-to-strengthen-our-jobs-and-invest-in-our-people" target="_blank">Tuesday</a>.Why it matters: The labor market for the retail sector is perennially tight, with nearly 600,000 job openings every year on average over the next decade, or about 14% of total jobs, according to the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics" data-vars-click-url="https://www.bls.gov/ooh/sales/retail-sales-workers.htm" data-vars-content-id="cc1816f8-20a8-4dfc-a1cf-ecb6460135cc" data-vars-headline="Walmart raising wages for hourly U.S. workers" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.bls.gov/ooh/sales/retail-sales-workers.htm" target="_blank">U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>.

Hope King

Stories

Trauma support in high demand from companies amid relentless wave of tragedies

Exclusive: Global CEO survey from SoftBank shows hiring and retention challenges easing

Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu make 2023 Oscars history

Walmart raising wages for hourly U.S. workers

Exclusive: Robinhood-owned Say launches shareholder messaging

Newsletter editions

🤯 Markets cheer Fed

🛢️ Exxon record

❤️‍🩹 Trauma-support spike

🚙 Ford white-glove service

✈️ Southwest prices debacle