1 big thing: House prices may have new floor

2. Home price growth cools

3. What's happening

4. New fertility treatment benefits at Walmart

5. Plug-in hogs

6. What they're saying

Today's newsletter is 618 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.2%.

Biggest gainer? CF Industries (+6.1%), leading a strong overall day for fertilizer stocks.

Biggest decliner? Digital Realty Trust (-4.0%), the real estate investment trust. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller.

National

Picture of a golden bell on a white background.

green

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories and look ahead to important trends. Led by Hope King and Nathan Bomey.

Axios Closer

1 big thing: New major player in e-cigs

Illustration of Juul vape sticking out of a pack of Marlboro cigarettes.

2. Charted: Exxon closing in on Meta in market cap

4. Elon's texts

5. Humanoid robot reveal

It's the end of the week. And the end of the quarter.

Today's newsletter is 689 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 1.5% today, ending the third quarter down 5.3%.

Biggest gainer? Charles River Laboratories (+3.6%), the pharmaceutical company, following an analyst upgrade by Jefferies.

Biggest decliner? Carnival Cruise Line (-23.2%), after telling investors it expected a loss in the fourth quarter due to inflation and continued cost pressures. 

1 big thing: Ian's financial storm

Illustration of a house in a deflating life preserver floating in water

2. Charted: Rite Aid investors need an Advil

4. Outsourced audits

Illustrated collage of a scrap of destroyed graph paper with a market trend line and hanging boxing gloves. The SEC logo is peeking out in the background.

5. Not everyone was smiling

Thursday ✅. Our thoughts are with those impacted by Hurricane Ian.

Today's newsletter is 698 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 2.1%.

Biggest gainer? Everest Re Group (+3.1%), the insurance and reinsurance underwriter, as the storm season bodes well for strong reinsurance premiums.

Biggest decliner? CarMax (-24.6%), the used auto dealer, after second-quarter earnings came in below expectations.

1 big thing: Transparent pay

2. Charted: Apple's iPhone overshoot

4. Hurricane Ian wreaks havoc

5. King of pickleball 👑

Today's newsletter is 673 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 2.0%.

Biggest gainer? Biogen (+39.9%), the biopharmaceutical company, on positive results from its experimental Alzheimer’s drug study.

Biggest decliner? VF Corp. (-6.9%), as the apparel and footwear company cut its full-year guidance following weaker than expected back-to-school performance.

💪 Big news: Axios will host its inaugural dealmaker summit, the Axios BFD, on Oct. 26. Request an invite to see and hear Mark Cuban, Social Capital founder Chamath Palihapitiya, NYSE president Lynn Martin, ESPN president Jimmy Pitaro, and JPMorgan global M&A co-head Anu Aiyengar in person in New York City.

1 big thing: Fewer seasonal hirings

Illustration of Christmas lights forming a downward trending arrow. 

2. Charted: Trading coasts

4. Unhidden fees

5. It wasn't the pastrami

Illustration of a stock chart with the line made out of a hoagie.

Today's newsletter is 698 words, a 3-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 1.0%.

Biggest gainer? Wynn Resorts (+12.0%), following news that Macao plans to reopen its casinos to visitors from mainland China by the end of the year.

Biggest decliner? DISH Network (-6.1%), the pay-TV and wireless company. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Patricia Guadalupe.

💡 Join Axios Pro Climate Tech reporter Alan Neuhauser tomorrow at 12:30pm ET for a virtual event featuring U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office director Jigar Shah to hear what’s next for long-term capital formation in climate tech and the role his office plays in it. Register here.

Checks for comedy specials at Netflix are shrinking.

Why it matters: The streaming giant is in the midst of a transformation to make itself both leaner and more reliant on ad dollars when it eventually rolls out ad-supported options.

Details: Compared to previous lump-sum payments that often reached as much as $1 million, Netflix has started licensing specials for about $100,000 a year, WSJ reports.

Under the new payout structure, comedians have to front the costs for production, but after deals expire they can regain full control over their content, sources tell the WSJ. 

Of note: Netflix isn’t totally abandoning deals that involve both creating and buying specials, and the biggest stars such as Chris Rock and Dave Chapelle can be paid tens of millions of dollars for a special. 

The big picture: This new approach enables Netflix to continue to produce relatively inexpensive, straightforward content that is popular on its platform while reducing its overall content costs. 

Laughs don’t pay as much as they used to at Netflix

Netflix has started licensing specials for about $100,000 a year, a far cry from some previous seven-figure lump sum payments, WSJ reports..

Illustration of a fan blowing cool air on the Netflix logo.

Netflix

Checks for comedy specials at Netflix are shrinking.Why it matters: The streaming giant is in the midst of a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="transformation" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/04/20/netflix-streaming-loss-subscribers-advertising" data-vars-content-id="453c09e6-f169-4ab9-ad96-46e332a85c9b" data-vars-headline="Laughs don’t pay as much as they used to at Netflix" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/04/20/netflix-streaming-loss-subscribers-advertising" target="_self">transformation</a> to make itself both leaner and more reliant on ad dollars when it eventually rolls out <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="ad-supported options" data-vars-click-url="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/netflix-eyes-7-to-9-price-for-its-new-ad-supported-plan" data-vars-content-id="453c09e6-f169-4ab9-ad96-46e332a85c9b" data-vars-headline="Laughs don’t pay as much as they used to at Netflix" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/netflix-eyes-7-to-9-price-for-its-new-ad-supported-plan" target="_blank">ad-supported options</a>.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Workers are set to hold onto the upper hand they gained over the past two years as more states start requiring pay disclosures on job postings. 

Why it matters: Salary transparency in job postings will prompt people to talk more openly about their own compensation and enable job seekers to gain more information about their value in the marketplace.

At the same time, companies will have to do more work to update pay policies and handle questions from employees — all amid continuing staff shortages, contentious return-to-office policies and a rise in unionization efforts.

Driving the news: California just became the largest state to require pay range on job ads for companies with 15 or more  employees starting Jan. 1 next year.

The move comes after Colorado, Nevada, Connecticut and Washington have implemented or approved similar rules, and as rules are set to take effect in New York City next month. New York state is weighing new rules. 

The big picture: Pay secrecy has led to large disparities that impact women and other underrepresented workers disproportionately. And while new laws may not solve every individual issue, requiring companies to disclose compensation will empower workers and force companies to be more aware of their competition.

State of: 17% of companies have already started to publicize salary range information on job ads even without legal pressures. 

An additional 62% of nearly 400 business leaders surveyed this summer said they’re planning or considering this, according to consulting firm WTW. 

What they’re saying: There is currently a lot of “angst” among business leaders who have to figure out not only what different states are asking for, but also how to restructure pay policies and to communicate and educate existing workers, Mariann Madden, North America Fair Pay co-lead at WTW, tells Axios.

Companies haven’t been willing to share pay information in the past and they might not be ready to share because there are existing knowledge gaps even inside organizations, she adds. 

“Sometimes [hiring] managers have limited information themselves about the pay programs and processes," says Madden.

What to watch: Pay equity examinations such as the ones that Salesforce conducts will start to pick up in pace as companies ready themselves for new laws. 

How narrow or wide pay bands are when they're disclosed, as well as how performance-based compensation including bonuses and equity plans are determined and doled out, remain big open questions.

Pay transparency to further empower workers

California just became the largest state to require pay range on job ads starting next year.

Pay equity

Workers are set to hold onto the upper hand they gained over the past two years as more states start requiring pay disclosures on job postings. Why it matters: Salary transparency in job postings will prompt people to talk more openly about their own compensation and enable job seekers to gain more information about their value in the marketplace.

Blame surging housing costs partly on workers wanting to be closer to the fridge.

Why it matters: While other factors that drove prices are receding — including record low mortgage rates — work-from-home habits have changed the demand equation deeply.

Driving the news: A 1-percentage point increase in remote work causes house prices to grow by about 0.9 percentage points, according to a new report from economic researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and University of California, San Diego.

State of play: An average 38% of workers were remote at least one day in the spring of 2021, up from about 12% pre-pandemic.

From November 2019 to November 2021, remote work accounted for more than 60% of the overall 24% increase in house prices during that time, and similar increases in rents, the researchers found.

What they're saying: “Remote work increases housing demand for all kinds of housing,” they wrote.

“Our results suggest that rising house prices over the pandemic reflected a change in fundamentals rather than a speculative bubble.”

Be smart: The pandemic led to historic stimulus checks and new opportunities for people to move around — a set of circumstances we'll likely never see again at the same time.

But even after accounting for people moving and city sizes changing, "most of the effect of remote work on house prices arises from its direct effect on housing demand," the researchers found.

What to watch: Fed Chair Jerome Powell has talked about a housing reset where inventory grows and bidding wars end.

Rising mortgage rates, like the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage piercing 7% today in a 20-year high, may chip away at the current excess in house prices, but the market may find itself with a new floor.

Here’s why home prices may have a new floor

WFH trends, tight supply have set a new normal for housing prices.

Illustration of a series of segments of an upward trending line in frames on a gallery wall.

Housing

Blame surging housing costs partly on workers wanting to be closer to the fridge.Why it matters: While other factors that drove prices are receding — including record low <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="mortgage rates" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/16/mortgage-rates-soaring-inflation-fed" data-vars-content-id="d6b7cd52-8be1-44d3-89b5-d4a13ea16b45" data-vars-headline="Here’s why home prices may have a new floor" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/16/mortgage-rates-soaring-inflation-fed" target="_self">mortgage rates</a> — work-from-home habits have changed the demand equation deeply.

Macy's is taking a step in Amazon's direction today with the launch of a third-party marketplace. 

Why it matters: Retailers are looking for ways to source more products to sell, and to do so in cost efficient ways.

Opening up its Macys.com platform to independent sellers and brands enables the company to show customers a wider range of goods without having to warehouse or manage those actual goods. 

The big picture: Inventory management has been an issue for Macy's and other major retailers, which have been stuck with too many goods on hand that they can't sell.

Creating a third-party marketplace could help reduce the risk of that going forward, Matt Baer, Macy's chief digital and customer officer, tells Axios. 

Doing so also enables Macy's to test different brands, styles and trends with customers, as well as develop relationships with new sellers, he adds.

How it works: Businesses have access to a self-service type of platform to submit their products for approval and listing. 

Macy's ultimately determines which items show up online, and customers who land on a third-party marketplace item on Macys.com sees a description that the product is being shipped and sold by a seller other than Macy's.

Our thought bubble: It won't be long before news like this becomes less notable.

Walmart, Target and of course Amazon are retailers that already operate a marketplace while Kroger and Bed Bath and Beyond have too.

With e-commerce now making up 14.5% of all U.S. retail sales, and the relative ease with which websites can plug into one another, any seller or storefront brand can find their way to each other to reach as many customers as possible. 

Macy's launches marketplace for sellers

Retailers are looking for ways to source more products to sell, and to do so in cost efficient ways.

Photo Illustration: Budrul Chukrut/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Macy's

Macy&#x27;s is taking a step in Amazon&#x27;s direction today with the launch of a third-party marketplace. Why it matters: Retailers are looking for ways to source more products to sell, and to do so in cost efficient ways.

The streaming music industry is on the B-side of its maturity, Hope writes.

Driving the news: Apple, which “has prided itself on marketing its brand differently” than other mass consumer companies — including Budweiser and Coke — just signed a multiyear agreement to take Pepsi’s spot as sponsor of the Super Bowl halftime, according to NYT. 

And in a much anticipated announcement, YouTube exec Robert Kyncl was named Warner Music Group's next CEO to help “unlock new opportunities at scale for artists.”

The big picture: Total annual recorded music revenues reached $15 billion last year, 37% lower than in 1999 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA).

Streaming made up 83% of those total revenues.

Between the lines: Artists have never had so many paths available to produce and distribute their music, Mitch Glazier, CEO of the RIAA, wrote earlier this year.

“We still have plenty of room to grow — to reach and surpass historical values for music.”

Hope’s thought bubble: Tech fluency has become a non-negotiable for anyone trying to harness and to profit from audio content.

At the same time, a company like Apple has to get over itself and embrace the mass appeal of a commoditized service — especially if it wants to gain market share against Spotify.

What to watch: And speaking of Spotify, as the current leader in streaming, its own maturity path means it has to expand outside of music even further — which it did this week when it published more than 300,000 audiobooks.

Streaming music's renaissance

Apple's deal for the Super Bowl halftime show signals a new phase for the industry.

Illustration of a hundred dollar bill as an equalizer.  

Music streaming

The streaming music industry is on the B-side of its maturity, Hope writes.Driving the news: Apple, which “has prided itself on marketing its brand differently” than other mass consumer companies — including Budweiser and Coke — just signed a multiyear agreement to take Pepsi’s spot as sponsor of the Super Bowl halftime, according to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="NYT" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/technology/apple-nfl-super-bowl.html" data-vars-content-id="f98c6027-fe83-4e1c-9ba3-586cbb8b0068" data-vars-headline="Streaming music&#x27;s renaissance" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/technology/apple-nfl-super-bowl.html" target="_blank">NYT</a>.

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Hope King

Stories

Pay transparency to further empower workers

Macy's launches marketplace for sellers

Here’s why home prices may have a new floor

Laughs don’t pay as much as they used to at Netflix

Streaming music's renaissance

Newsletter editions

📱 Elon’s texts

💨 Home insurance storm

💵 Pay transparency spreads

😰 Housing limbo

❄️ Seasonal hiring slowdown