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Tropical storms, tornadoes and flooding are among the extreme weather events causing destruction around the world.

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

National

NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) rocket arrived at a launch pad at Kennedy Space Station on Wednesday, roughly two weeks before it's set to make a debut test launch.

Why it matters: The flight will mark the first mission in NASA's Artemis program, through which the space agency hopes to send astronauts back to the moon.

The mission, set for Aug. 29, is expected to take three test dummies in a distant orbit around the moon for several days before returning to Earth for a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean.

The big picture: The SLS's journey with NASA's Orion spacecraft aboard it from its hangar to Launch Complex 39B took nearly 10 hours over Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Go deeper: Small NASA satellite launches on big mission to orbit the Moon

NASA's lunar rocket arrives at launch pad before first Artemis mission

The upcoming test flight will mark the first mission in NASA's Artemis program.

NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) rocket with the Orion spacecraft aboard at the Kennedy Space Center on Aug. 16. 

NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) rocket with the Orion spacecraft aboard at the Kennedy Space Center on Aug. 16. Photo: Joel Kowsky/NASA via Getty Images

NASA

About two-thirds of the world's population could starve to death if the United States and Russia engaged in nuclear war, according to a study published Monday.

The big picture: Soot and ash from nuclear weapon detonation would block the sun and cause disruptions to the Earth’s climate, causing a "catastrophic disruption of global food markets," researchers predicted in a peer-reviewed study led by Rutgers University.

Reality check: Food insecurity would be deadlier than nuclear blasts, according to the study published in Nature Food journal.

By the numbers: Researchers estimate that more than 5 billion people could die from a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia.

They also estimate that more than 2 billion people could die from a smaller-scale nuclear war between India and Pakistan.

What they found: The reduced light, global cooling, and likely trade restrictions after a nuclear war would be a global catastrophe for food security. 

Crop declines would be the most severe in the mid-high latitude nations, including major exporting countries such as Russia and the U.S., which would then affect import-dependent countries in Africa and the Middle East.

Nuclear war would primarily contaminate soil and water close to where the nuclear weapons are used.

What they're saying: “The data tell us one thing: We must prevent a nuclear war from ever happening,” climate scientist and co-author of the study Alan Robock said.

Between the lines: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has increased tensions between the U.S. and its former Cold War foe — both of which have nuclear weapons.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the country's nuclear deterrent forces on alert soon after invading Ukraine.

Recent efforts to renegotiate a nuclear deal with Iran also failed to make progress and appear unlikely to succeed anytime soon.

5 billion could starve to death if U.S., Russia engage in nuclear war: Study

Food insecurity would be deadlier than the nuclear blasts, according to the study.

Illustration of a man pushing a nuclear symbol.

Nuclear war

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Axios Space

Scientists are entering a new era of space science — one that will be defined by not simply searching for planets circling distant stars, but by figuring out whether any of them could support life. 

Why it matters: For the past 30 years, researchers have focused on finding these worlds, collectively called exoplanets, discovering more than 5,000 of them since the first ones were detected in 1992. 

Now — thanks to sensitive telescopes on Earth and in space — astronomers have a chance to learn more about how planets form and their odds of habitability. 

What's happening: A study published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters used the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) in Chile to find what scientists think is one of the youngest planets ever discovered, at only 1.5 million years old. 

The world — which is about the mass of Jupiter — isn't habitable, but the researchers revealed a possible cloud of dust and gas, called a circumplanetary disk, around the planet that could one day form moons or rings.

"Even within the solar system, we don't understand how satellites have formed," Jaehan Bae, an author of the study, tells Axios, explaining that it's still not clear how Earth's Moon or Jupiter's large Galilean moons formed, but that this kind of study could help scientists learn more.

The James Webb Space Telescope recently observed the star system and should be able to confirm the presence of the world if it's there, Bae says. 

The big picture: Understanding the chemical compositions of newly formed planets, their stars, and disks of gas and dust around young stars will help researchers learn more about the likelihood of habitability in various star systems.

Scientists have collected "stellar abundance profiles" of stars for a number of years, allowing them to break down exactly what chemicals, in what ratios, make up various stars. Now, thanks to large-scale surveys, researchers have been able to collect tens of thousands of these profiles.

By pairing those stellar chemical thumbprints with the chemistry happening inside of disks of forming planets, researchers might be able to figure out what elements are being incorporated into planets and how it could affect their habitability.

"The ratios of things like magnesium silicate to phosphorus to carbon to oxygen might all be super important," exoplanet scientist Jessie Christiansen says of habitability. 

"Suddenly, we're at this moment where you are going to have exoplanet atmosphere detections and you want to know the physical processes that created that planet to be able to start considering anything like bio-signatures," exoplanet scientist Meredith MacGregor tells Axios.

Yes, but: Understanding habitability in general is about more than chemical composition, mass and position in orbit. 

The way life evolved on Earth is complex, and it's only one data point, making it difficult to know what was important to our planet versus what can be generalized as a necessity for life to exist. 

For example, scientists think that the first life on Earth may have developed in tide pools governed by the movements of the Moon around our planet, so it's possible a Moon might be essential to developing life, Christiansen says. 

Scientists also think that the large planets in the outer solar system were responsible for sending comets toward Earth, delivering water and allowing life to thrive. The question now is: How important are those gas giants to creating the right environment for life? 

What to watch: The JWST is a powerful new tool when it comes to understanding exoplanets and the disks of debris and gas that form them around distant stars. 

The telescope is designed to parse out the chemical composition of the atmospheres enveloping exoplanets, allowing scientists to learn more about their formation and evolution.

But the future of exoplanet science is not just about JWST. "I'm really excited about leveraging [different telescopes] to learn more — not just using JWST, but using JWST and ALMA and trying to use as many telescopes as we can to get these really unique datasets that give us as much information as possible," MacGregor says.

A new chapter in the search for alien planets

The future of exoplanet science will focus on characterization.

Animated illustration of a planet with a blinking neon vacancy sign

Astronomy

Axios Generate

Counties expected to experience heat indices above 125°F by 2053

Note: Shaded counties are those that will, on average, have 0.5 days or more at or above a 125F° heat index in 2053; Data: First Street Foundation; Map: Axios Visuals 

A new study reveals the emergence of an "extreme heat belt" from Texas to Illinois, where the heat index could reach 125°F at least one day a year by 2053. 

The big picture: In just 30 years, climate change will cause the Lower 48 states to be a far hotter and more precarious place to be during the summer. 

The findings come from a hyperlocal analysis of current and future extreme heat events published Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation. 

The new report is unique for examining current and future heat risks down to the property level across the country, and joins similar risk analyses First Street has completed for flooding and wildfires. 

As average temperatures increase due to human-driven greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, instances of extreme heat are forecast to escalate. 

This report makes clear where households will be vulnerable to what would now be considered almost unheard-of heat indices, which show how the air feels from the combination of air temperature and relative humidity.  

Threat Level: The report, which is based on First Street's peer reviewed heat model, shows that the number of Americans currently exposed to "extreme heat," defined as having a maximum heat index of greater than 125°F, is just 8 million. 

However, due to the anticipated warming during the next three decades, that number is expected to balloon to 107 million people, an increase of 13 times over 30 years. 

The developing "Extreme Heat Belt" forms a region of vulnerability from northern Texas to Illinois, and includes the cities of St. Louis, Kansas City, Memphis, Tulsa and Chicago. 

By 2030, some coastal areas in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic may also experience days with a heat index above 125°F, the report found. 

Zoom in: The report shows a country that will have to grapple with the effects of increased heat exposure nearly everywhere, though there will be distinctions based on geography. 

For example, the study finds that in 2053, the West will have the highest chance for long durations with "local hot days," which are days that exceed the temperatures typically experienced for a particular area.

The Gulf and Southeast will see the highest chances and longest duration of exposure to what are termed "dangerous days," with a heat index greater than 100°F, the report found. 

Between the lines: The states likely to see the greatest growth in dangerous days are Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Florida, First Street's analysis found. 

The counties with the largest changes in dangerous days between 2023 and 2053 are mainly located in Florida, led by the populous areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. 

The report shows how the characteristics of heat waves may change in the near future. Many spots currently see more than 20 straight days with heat indices above 100°F. However by 2053,  such streaks could be as many as 74 consecutive days, the report states. 

The study also sheds light on cooling demand driven by the increasingly hot conditions, including cooling-driven increases in carbon emissions, which would aggravate warming further. 

And Texas, Florida, California, Ohio and Missouri constitute the top 5 states with the biggest cooling demand-related uptick in CO2 emissions between now and 2053, the report shows. 

Meanwhile... The U.S. is already seeing the clear fingerprints of human-caused global warming on extreme heat events. Last month, for example, the country's nighttime lows were the warmest on record for any month. 

Unusually hot overnight temperatures during heat waves increase the risk to public health of heat-related illness. 

In addition, the number of warm temperature records outnumbered the cold temperature records by a ratio of nearly eight-to-one. 

What's next: Communities are innovating to reduce the impacts of extreme heat and put in place better heat action plans, among other climate resilience steps.

Heat waves around the world are connected, scientists say

Global warming sharply escalated the risk and severity of the UK heat wave: study

An "Extreme Heat Belt" will soon emerge in the U.S., study warns

The country is already seeing the impacts of hotter, more widespread heat waves.

Climate change

Officials warn a forecast downpour that has some 7 million people on flood watch won't be enough to stave off the need for drastic water cuts as the Colorado River's depleted reservoirs sink to near-crisis levels.

Driving the news: As the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for an area covering from Arizona to Wyoming, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has given Western states that rely on the Colorado River Basin for water supplies until Tuesday to outline how they plan to make cuts.

An NWS map showing some 7 million people are under flood watch, from Arizona to Wyoming.

Why it matters: If authorities in the affected states of California, Arizona and Nevada in the Lower Basin and Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah in the Upper Basin fail to come up with their own agreement by then, the Interior Department will step in.

Bureau of Reclamation chief Camille Calimlim Touton has warned that "immediate action" is needed to avoid a water supply crisis in the region next year.

Yes, but: Negotiations on water cuts among the Colorado River's Lower Basin authorities have yet to produce an agreement.

Our thought bubble: The Southwest continues to benefit from an active monsoon season, which is helping ease short-term drought conditions in New Mexico, parts of Nevada and southern Colorado. 

However, it is not making a dent nor is it expected to, in the long-term, curtail historic drought and water woes in the Colorado River Basin.

Context: The Southwest is mired in its worst drought of at least the past 1,200 years, which studies tie in large part to global warming.

The megadrought has plunged the nation's two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, to historic lows.

By the numbers: Between 2 million acre-feet and 4 million acre-feet of additional conservation is needed just to protect critical levels in 2023, according to Touton.

Officials believe up to a third of the Colorado River's flows need to be urgently conserved in order to avoid a crisis at Lake Powell, per Politico.

Threat level: "The Colorado River Basin is in the 23rd year of a historic drought. Both Lake Powell and Lake Mead — the two largest reservoirs in the United States — are at historically low levels with a combined storage capacity of 28% of capacity," Touton said at a U.S. Senate hearing in June.

The bottom line: "While Reclamation and its partners have been successful in conserving water in Lake Mead and Colorado River System reservoirs, more needs to be done as the system reaches critically low water levels," Touton told the senators. "The system is at a tipping point."

Go deeper: Colorado River ranked as "most endangered" in the nation

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Denver

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Colorado River at drought tipping point

States that rely on the river basin for water supplies have until Tuesday to outline plans or the Biden administration will step in.

A man walks on a finger of exposed land at Lake Mead reservoir during the drought on July 9, 2022 in Boulder City, Nevada. 

Exposed land in July during the drought at Lake Mead reservoir in Boulder City, Nev. Photo: RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

Drought

Axios Events

Human-caused climate change has been warming the Arctic nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, researchers in Finland said in a new study released Thursday in the journal Communications Earth and Environment.

Why it matters: The study indicates that the polar region is warming faster than scientists previously estimated in other studies, which have previously said that the Arctic was warming either twice, more than twice or three times as fast as the planet on average.

The study also estimates that other parts of the Arctic — such as sea areas near Novaya Zemlya, Russia, and the Barents Sea north of Norway — are warming seven times as fast as the global average.

What they're saying: "We present evidence that during 1979–2021 the Arctic has been warming nearly four times as fast as the entire globe," the study stated.

"Thus, we caution that referring to Arctic warming as to being twice as fast as the global warming, as frequently stated in literature, is a clear underestimation of the situation during the last 43 years since the start of the satellite observations."

Thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Freedman: Arctic climate change affects the entire world by altering the temperature difference between the tropics and the pole. 

This can tip the scale toward more extreme weather events from a slowing summertime jet stream. The loss of sea ice induces a positive climate feedback that in turn warms the region even more rapidly, and can speed the melt of land-based ice sheets as well.

Scientists study the region closely because what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. The region's permafrost stores vast amounts of greenhouse gases that, if released, would significantly speed and sharply escalate the amount of global warming. This is considered one of many tipping points in the climate system.

The big picture: Other scientists have observed record melt seasons from glaciers in parts of the Arctic this year, such as on the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard.

Researchers have also observed peculiar and worrying melting patterns, like melt ponds and other surface water formations, on parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet in recent years.

Go deeper: Greenland ice melt kicks into high gear

Arctic is warming four times faster than rest of globe, new study says

The polar region is warming much faster than scientists previously thought.

The Svalbard Islands, in Norway, viewed through a porthole of a ship in the Arctic Ocean in July 2022.

The Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard viewed through a porthole of a ship in the Arctic Ocean in July 2022. Photo: Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Arctic

This is the summer that climate change impacts are becoming overwhelmingly obvious and costly across much of Europe. 

The big picture: Western Europe's fourth region-wide, fierce heat wave of the summer is well underway. 

It's pushing temperatures into the triple digits Fahrenheit in Portugal, Spain, and France, and close to that level in the United Kingdom. 

French firefighters are battling a nearly 20,000-acre blaze in the Gironde region that has forced thousands from their homes, while other fires burn elsewhere in the heat-affected regions. 

That wildfire, burning in pine forests south of Bordeaux, has required the deployment of at least 1,000 firefighters, according to Reuters, with more resources on the way. 

Temperatures in the region are forecast to exceed 100°F Thursday and Friday along with low relative humidity levels, making firefighting conditions extremely challenging.

Threat level: In the U.K., where temperatures are forecast to soar into the mid-to-upper 90s today through Sunday, the Met Office has hoisted an Amber "Extreme Heat Warning" through the period.

The fire danger in southeast England is forecast to reach its two highest categories, "very high" to "exceptional," with authorities warning that they may not be able to respond to every call.

During the record-breaking heat wave in July, fires swept through parts of London and London's mayor said it was the busiest day for fire crews since World War II. 

Grasses in and around London are tinderbox dry, firefighters warn, and could ignite with the slightest spark, spreading rapidly in heat and drought conditions.

Context: Much of Europe is in the middle of an intense drought, which the heat will only worsen. French officials have called that country's drought, which has knocked some nuclear power plants that rely on river water to cool their reactors offline.

Map showing temperature departures from average on Friday, Aug. 12, 2022. 

Map showing temperature departures from average on Friday, Aug. 12, 2022. (Weatherbell.com)

July was France's driest month on record dating back to 1959, and southern England is setting drought records as well. 

In Germany, the Rhine River has hit such low levels that the viability of this crucial cargo artery, which carries commodities and energy supplies like coal and diesel fuel, is threatened.

This summer has also seen rapid and extensive melting of mountain glaciers across Europe, including the Swiss Alps. 

According to the AP, in Valais, Switzerland, melting glaciers revealed parts of a plane that had crashed there long ago, as well as at least two skeletons in separate locations. 

Of note: The heat and drought conditions are reducing crop productivity, cutting the harvest of key commodities at a time when food supplies are strained worldwide and prices are elevated due to Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Context: Heat waves are more likely to occur, more intense, and longer lasting due to human-caused climate change. 

A study published following the extreme heat in England last month found that climate change made the event at least 10 times as likely than it would have been in preindustrial times. 

It also found that the heat wave's average temperatures were at least 2°C (3.6°F)  milder than they would have been in a world without today's high atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, but observational data supports an even greater figure of a 4°C (7°F) difference. 

Go deeper: Drought threatens 60% of EU and U.K. as Europe faces "critical situation"

Europe faces heat wave, raging wildfires and dire drought

Temperatures were in the triple digits Fahrenheit in Portugal, Spain and France.

Picture of a wildfire at night with a tree in the middle of the frame.

A silhouette on a road near burning trees at a wildfire near Belin-Beliet, southwestern France on Aug. 11, 2022. (Thibaud Moritz/AFP via Getty Images)

extreme weather

The Perseid meteor shower — typically one of the best of the year — is set to peak this week, but a bright Moon could wash out all but the brightest shooting stars. 

The big picture: This meteor shower comes around each year as the Earth passes through the trail of debris left behind by Comet Swift-Tuttle, which was last visible from Earth in 1992.

State of play: In a typical year, observers checking out the Perseids from dark parts of the world can see 50–100 meteors per hour during the peak of the shower.

This year, however, people watching in dark conditions in North America will likely only be able to see 10–20 meteors per hour during the shower's peak from late Friday night to the early hours of Saturday morning, according to NASA astronomer Bill Cooke.

“Sadly, this year’s Perseids peak will see the worst possible circumstances for spotters," Cooke added in a statement.

How it works: If you still want to check out the Perseids, the best way is to head out to a dark area free of clouds and far from city lights. 

The Moon will still wash out the sky, but if you allow your eyes to adjust to the darkness — such as it is — you should hopefully be able to see at least a few meteors during the shower's peak.

The peak of the shower will likely occur between midnight and dawn on Saturday.

How to watch the Perseid meteor shower

The shower peaks this week during a full Moon.

Streaks of meteors streaming in a dark, star-dotted sky.

A time lapse of meteors streaking through the sky. Photo: NASA/JPL

Drought conditions are affecting about 60% of the EU and the U.K., exacerbated by climate-change driven record heat across Europe this summer, according to new research from the European Drought Observatory.

Why it matters: France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are facing water shortages and riverbeds are drying out across Europe. Dry conditions are severely affecting energy production, agriculture and river transportation. 

There is an "increased fire danger due to the lack of rain and the resulting dry vegetation, combined with high temperatures," the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service notes — as wildfires continue to burn across Europe.

In southwest France, a blaze burning in Gironde since July roared back to life, forcing the evacuation of nearly 6,000 people on Wednesday, per France 24. 

Meanwhile, many European countries are expected to see continued dry conditions in August and September, adding "to the already very critical situation," noted the European Commission's European Drought Observatory in July. 

This would "exacerbate drought severity and the impacts on agriculture, energy and water supply," the Observatory said.

The big picture: The European Drought Observatory examined data over a 10-day period toward the end of July and discovered that 45% of the EU's territory was under drought warning conditions by the middle of the month, while 15% was on "red alert" and in severe water deficiency.

In the United Kingdom, where Met Office data shows the English regions of East Anglia, the southeast and the south faced their driest ever July as a historic heat wave struck, the U.K. Center for Ecology and Hydrology warned drought conditions were likely to remain until October.

What they're saying: "Droughts have become our summer reality," tweeted Virginijus Sinkevičius, the European Commission's commissioner for environment, oceans and fisheries, on Tuesday.

100 municipalities in France have no running water, the Rhine River's levels in Germany and France are so low the transportation of goods is under threat, and the Netherlands "faces an official water shortage," Sinkevičius noted.

"Restoring Nature is the best solution to change this," he added.

What to watch: Another searing heat wave was forecast to hit parts of western and central Europe this week into next week.

The Met Office has issued an amber heat warning for much of southern England and parts of Wales for Thursday through Sunday, on the heels of its first ever extreme heat warning last month. Heat alerts are also in effect across France.

London is forecast to see temperatures of 90°F (33°C) or above for four straight days starting Thursday, and temperatures will soar above 100°F in Spain, Portugal and parts of France through the end of the week.

The extreme heat will worsen the drought by drying out soils further.

Climate change raised the odds of and increased the severity of the previous European heat wave, and is likely a key driver of this event, which is the region's fourth this summer. 

In photos: Drought devastates European landscapes

People sit on Primrose Hill in London where the grass is dry due to lack of water. 

People in London on Aug. 9 sit on Primrose Hill, where the grass is dry due to lack of water. Photo: Kirsty O'Connor/PA Images via Getty Images

Drought threatens 60% of EU and U.K. as Europe faces "critical situation"

Drought conditions are creating water shortages and affecting farming across Europe.

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