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Tropical storms, tornadoes and flooding are among the extreme weather events causing destruction around the world.

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

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Axios Generate

Human-caused climate change has ratcheted up the odds and severity of the record-shattering heat wave that has gripped India and Pakistan since March, a new study finds. 

Why it matters: The climate attribution study is the first to specifically examine the factors behind the 2022 heat wave. The new work also indicates that heat waves worsened by global warming are affecting human health, food security and economic output. 

A separate study that was published earlier this month examined the odds that a heat wave would break a record set in 2010.  

Driving the news: Since March, India and Pakistan have seen extraordinarily high temperatures and below average rainfall. The dry conditions have only raised temperatures further, hampering economic activity by cutting down on outdoor work. The heat wave has killed at least 90 people, the study states. 

March was the hottest month in India since records began there 122 years ago, the study notes, and Pakistan set the highest worldwide positive temperature anomaly during for the month. The heat continued during April and into May. On April 29, the study finds, 70% of India was enveloped by the heat wave. 

Temperatures in the hottest locations have routinely reached or exceeded 120°F. 

The big picture: While extreme heat is common in India and Pakistan prior to the onset of the summer monsoon, the hot weather this year has been unusually pronounced, as well as longer-lasting than usual. It also hit earlier in the year than is typically seen. 

The heat has dented wheat crop yields at a time when global supplies are strained due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, prompting India to cut off exports to the global market. 

It also produced a damaging glacial lake outburst flood in northern Pakistan.

"Climate change is fueling impacts that ripple across to other parts of the world, not just the face where the heatwave is occurring," said study coauthor Roop Singh from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center.

Zoom in: The study was conducted by more than two-dozen scientists around the world who are affiliated with the World Weather Attribution project, which uses peer reviewed methods to conduct rapid analyses of how climate change has influenced an extreme weather event. 

They examined the average of daily maximum high temperatures during the March through April 2022 period. 

The researchers concluded that the heat wave has been about a 1-in-100-year event in this region, although they caution this is likely an underestimate due to a relatively short period of data in some areas.

The study found that human emissions of greenhouse gases made this event both about 1°C hotter and more likely to occur, with the probability of such an event increasing by a factor of 30. 

Threat level: If global average temperatures reach 2°C above preindustrial levels, such a heat wave would become an additional 2% to 20% more likely, and up to 1.5°C hotter than the 2022 event, the study found. This mean such heat waves could have a typical return period of once every five years in such a warming scenario.

This is a noteworthy finding since currently, the world is on course for about 3°C of warming by the end of the century. 

Yes, but: The researchers note that measures can be taken to help protect vulnerable populations from such events, such as heat wave early warning systems and bolstering public services such as cooling centers. 

What they're saying: "[In] a world without climate change, this event was highly, highly unlikely," said Arpita Mondal, a study co-author from the Indian Institute of Technology Mumbai, on a conference call with reporters.

Study: Climate change made India, Pakistan heat wave 30 times more likely

A new study highlights the shifting odds and severity of extreme weather events.

A villager walking through the cracked bottom of a dried-out pond on a hot summer day at Bandai village, India.

Shivaram, a villager walking through the cracked bottom of a dried-out pond on a hot summer day at Bandai village in Pali district, India, during a heat wave on May 11, 2022. Photo: Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

Climate change

Energy & Environment

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

A hazardous weather weekend is shaping up across much of the Lower 48 states, with a potentially historic late May snowstorm cranking up across the Rockies and a heat wave hitting the East Coast.

Why it matters: More than 100 million Americans are experiencing dangerous weather conditions this weekend, as a cold front slams Colorado and southern Wyoming with heavy snow and a potentially record breaking heat wave surges toward the Northeast.

The big picture: A powerful cold front and its associated low-pressure area drove southeastward across the Rockies Friday, bringing heavy snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado.

Colorado Springs recorded over 9 inches of snow as of Saturday morning, while multiple towns west of Denver had over 10 inches on Friday night, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

The town of Black Hawk, Colorado, reported 11 inches of snow as of Friday evening.

 The highest snowfall amounts recorded Saturday were in the mountains and foothills west of Denver and Boulder, with up to two feet reported around the Floyd Hill area, according to NWS Boulder.

More than 93,000 customers were without power in Colorado as of Saturday afternoon, according to the tracking service poweroutage.us.

Multiple reporting locations in Wyoming's portion of the Medicine Bow-Routt National Forests recorded more than a foot of snow on Friday.

The heavy snow is the result of winds pushing cold, moist air up and over the higher terrain, in a phenomenon known as upsloping.

Importantly, a forecast consensus has come together for more snowfall than previously expected in the urban corridor between Denver and Boulder, Colorado, with about six to eight inches or more possible in these areas, depending on snowfall rates and the exact surface temperature.

Sharply higher amounts will pile up in the foothills, though, and records for late May could be threatened or broken in some locations. Parts of Boulder, for example, could see a foot of snowfall before the event wraps up on Saturday afternoon

Threat level: The heavy snow falling on trees that already have their leaves could yield widespread tree damage and lasting power outages in the Denver and Boulder areas, and in some cases power may not be restored for days, according to the NWS.

The agency is warning residents not to park their cars near a tree, since it might topple onto the vehicle.

To the south of the snowstorm, dry and windy conditions are bringing yet another day of concerning fire weather conditions to parts of Utah, New Mexico and western Texas on Saturday.

Numerous wildfires are already burning throughout this region, including the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire, the largest in New Mexico's history. Other fires are burning in southern Colorado and west Texas.

Meanwhile... Across the eastern part of the country, an unusually hot weekend is in store as a heat dome that had been parked over Texas shifts eastward. Widespread record-breaking temperatures are expected across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday. 

Much of the Northeast is under a heat advisory until 8 p.m. EDT on Saturday, with heat index values of 95 to 99 degrees expected for parts of New York, northwestern Connecticut and southeastern Vermont.

High temperatures will climb to the upper 90s° in Washington, D.C., Saturday, potentially breaking the previous record of 95°F set in 1934. As of Saturday morning, temperatures were already in the low 80s.

More than 100 million people will experience temperatures that are 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time of year.

It is possible that some monthly high-temperature records will fall, especially in the Northeast.

For most people in the East, the heat wave will be the hottest weather they will have experienced since August 2021. The first heat wave of the season can be particularly dangerous, with higher risks of heat-related illness since people are not yet accustomed to such high temperatures.

"The abrupt beginning of hot temperatures early in the season after a relatively cool spring brings an increased risk of heat illnesses unless proper precautions are taken for those working or recreating outdoors," the NWS said in a special weather statement.

"Since many outdoor events are planned this weekend in the region, be aware of the heat, and take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside this weekend. Reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening."

Human-caused climate change is making heat waves around the world more intense and more likely to occur and may be expanding their seasonal timing earlier in the spring and later into the fall.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

Extreme weather plagues U.S., from Colorado snowstorm to East Coast heat

From wildfires to heavy snow and a stifling heat wave, this weekend will feature an unusual array of hazards.

Computer model depiction of forecast highs and records along the East Coast for May 21, 2022.

National Weather Service forecast highs for Saturday, May 21, 2022. The boxes indicate record-setting temperatures. (Weatherbell.com)

extreme weather

U.S. Forest Service Chief Randy Moore suspended all prescribed fires on land owned by the federal government on Friday, citing extreme fire danger, recent burn escapes and a need to review the service's prescribed fire protocols.

Why it matters: The Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire in New Mexico in part caused by a prescribed burn escaping containment amid gusty winds in early April and joining with a separate wildfire.

The two grew into the largest fire in New Mexico's history. The blaze is currently the largest uncontained fire nationwide at more than 300,000 acres. 

It has displaced thousands and is one of several significant fires burning in the Southwest this spring, Axios' Andrew Freedman reports.

Prescribed fires are a valuable tool for protecting communities from extreme fire danger on a large scale, as they burn off dead or excess trees and other plants, reducing the total fuel available for future wildfires. 

Moore said 99.84% of prescribed fires go according to plan and stay within their containment line, though that equals one escape per every 1,000 prescribed fires — about six escapes per year.

What they're saying: In addition to pausing prescribed burns, Moore said he will create a team to review the service's prescribed fire program and implement improvements before resuming prescribed burnings, which he expects will take 90 days.

"Prescribed fire plays an important role in forest management," Moore said. "Yet climate change, drought, dry fuels throughout the country and other factors have led to increasingly extreme wildfires, so we must change the way we make decisions about when and where to burn."

"It is imperative not only to understand what happened in relation to recent prescribed fire escapes, but also to ensure that our prescribed burn program nationwide is anchored in the most contemporary science, policies, practices and decision-making processes."

The big picture: A severe wildfire season is expected across the West because of a severe and expanding drought driven in part by climate change.

At least 26,321 wildfires have burnt 1,692,281 acres so far this so far year, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center.

Go deeper: Where homes will face the most wildfire risk in next 30 years

U.S. Forest Service halts prescribed fires amid extreme fire danger

Recent burn escapes prompted the service chief to call for a pause to review prescribed fire protocols.

A firefighter putting out a hotspot from a wildfire near Mora, New Mexico, on May 13.

A firefighter putting out a hotspot from a wildfire near Mora, New Mexico, on May 13. Photo: Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Wildfires

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Axios Space

Boeing's uncrewed Starliner capsule has officially made it to the International Space Station. 

Why it matters: The uncrewed test Friday paves the way for human missions aboard Starliner to the ISS in the future, and acts as a re-do of a 2019 mission that failed to make it to the station.

What's happening: The Starliner docked to the space station at 8:28 pm ET on Friday after launching from Florida Thursday. 

During its time in space, mission controllers tested out a number of its systems, including its thrusters and communications.

While the spacecraft had a couple thrusters shut off early just after reaching space, that didn't adversely impact its ability to make it to the station.

Background: During the 2019 test, the Starliner wasn't able to make it to the ISS due to a number of issues. 

Those malfunctions were so severe that they could have resulted in the loss of the spacecraft.

What's next: The Starliner is expected to stay docked to the space station for the next four to five days before heading back to Earth.

Once Boeing begins flying astronauts to the ISS, it will mean that three different systems — Starliner, SpaceX's Dragon and Russia's Soyuz — are able to ferry people to and from the space station.

Boeing's Starliner docks to ISS for the first time

The uncrewed test paves the way for human missions aboard Starliner to the ISS in the future.

A full view of the Boeing Starliner capsule shining in white and blue against the blackness of space on approach to the ISS

Boeing's Starliner on approach to the International Space Station. Photo: NASA TV

Boeing

Boeing on Thursday launched an uncrewed Starliner capsule on a mission to the International Space Station.

Why it matters: The launch is a crucial moment for Boeing, which plans to use its Starliner capsule to take NASA astronauts to the space station in the coming years and compete with SpaceX.

What's happening: The Starliner took flight atop its Atlas V rocket from Florida at about 6:54 p.m. ET.

The capsule is now making its way through space, with docking to the space station expected on Friday.

You can watch docking coverage Friday via NASA TV starting at 3:30 pm ET, with docking expected at about 7:10 pm ET. 

Background: At the moment, SpaceX is the only U.S. company able to fly people to the ISS. 

Both Boeing and SpaceX were awarded NASA contracts to help develop their human spaceflight systems in order to end the space agency's reliance on Russian systems after the end of the space shuttle program in 2011. 

Between the lines: Boeing's first uncrewed Starliner mission to the space station in 2019 ended after major issues prevented the capsule from making it to the orbiting outpost. 

The malfunctions that thwarted the first test were so severe that they could have resulted in the loss of the capsule.

This week's test was initially expected in August 2021, but issues with the Starliner capsule delayed it until this year.

Editor's note: This story was updated to reflect the launch of the Starliner to orbit.

Boeing launches redo mission to the International Space Station

A rocket standing on a launch pad against a blue sky

The Atlas V rocket carrying Boeing Starliner. Photo: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Axios Science

Climate change may be harming the carbon-capturing capabilities of Earth's forests.

Why it matters: Climate models may not be accurately factoring how much carbon can be captured by Earth's trees — and how forests will be affected by climate change. They may be overestimating forests' ability to take in carbon, which means they are underestimating future global warming.

It may also mean selling forest carbon offsets to reduce emissions may not be worth as much as companies think. 

"We could be betting a lot on forest offsets that may not have a lot of benefit by end of the century," says William Anderegg, an ecologist at the University of Utah.

The big picture: Earth's temperate, boreal and tropical forests capture a massive amount of carbon — roughly 20%-25% of the CO2 humans emit each year by one estimate. 

What's new: The death rate of trees in the tropical forests of North Queensland, Australia, doubled between 1984 and 2019, according to a study published this week in Nature. 

The researchers suspect that's linked to climate change: Over that same period the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) — a measure of how quickly the air robs plants of moisture — increased in this region. 

An increase in VPD has been linked to a spike in wildfire risk, in which it plays the "role of a sledgehammer," study authors Sean McMahon and David Bauman of the Smithsonian Environmental Resource Center tell Axios in an email. 

But in forests, some tree species may be resistant, tolerant or resilient to VPD increases, whereas it can stress others, they added. Increases can directly kill trees or make them more vulnerable to drought, disease and pathogens. But, the authors caution, it is difficult to ascribe tree death to drought. 

"Our study indicates that climate in general, and VPD in particular, need to be understood not simply physiologically, but how different species differ in their vulnerability to this stress," they said. 

In another study, Anderegg and his colleagues found the risks posed to trees by wildfires, drought and insect outbreaks through the end of the 21st century may be pervasive, especially in the western U.S.

"In a scenario with medium emissions, wildfire risk is projected to increase by a factor of four. Drought and insect risks increase by about 50% to 80%," they wrote in Ecology Letters.

One limitation is the study doesn't look at the regrowth of trees over time. "It could be there are scenarios where species composition changes or forests lose enough biomass that there isn’t fuel for fire. But that is really more important for [the] end of century and less in the next 30 to 40 years."

Zoom in: More CO2 in the air and higher temperatures are expected to spur the growth of trees from supercharging photosynthesis. 

But it's an open question whether photosynthesis or the expansion and division of cells that make up wood drives tree growth.

Using tree ring data from thousands of trees in the U.S. and Europe and measures of changes in CO2 in the air that are a proxy for photosynthesis, Anderegg and his colleagues tried to answer that question. If rates of photosynthesis and tree growth increased or decreased at the same time, it would point to photosynthesis as the driving force.

But they found little evidence of that in the study areas, which are located in temperate and boreal forests. That may mean current models, which funnel CO2 increases into tree growth and predict trees can lock up more carbon, may be overestimating how much carbon forests can — and will — sequester, Anderegg says.

On top of that, the study suggests tree growth rates may be influenced heavily by the water-dependent process of cell growth. Drought then may be slowing tree growth in many regions of the world that we don't realize, he says, adding the mechanism needs to be tested in models. 

The study is limited to boreal and temperate forests as well, underscoring the need for more data from the tropics, the researchers said.

What to watch: Future forests will remove carbon each year and store it for centuries — but existing forests have already accumulated carbon and could capture more.

Trees that are harvested can take decades or a century to release the carbon stored in them. But left to grow another century, they could capture even more carbon, says William Moomaw, a professor emeritus of international environmental policy at Tufts University. (Trees grow faster later in their life — and bigger trees store more carbon.) 

Moomaw advocates for what he calls pro-forestation, which essentially means to grow forests and could include increasing the time between harvests so trees can capture more carbon. 

The bottom line: "Forests can store CO2 for centuries but will they survive climate stresses in [the] 21st century?" Anderegg says.

Go deeper: How to build forests to combat climate change (Axios)

Climate change is harming a vital tool to combat it

Models may be overestimating forests' ability to take in carbon — and underestimating future global warming

Illustration of a tree growing out of a thermometer with a high temperature.

Axios Events

Confirmed new monkeypox cases outside of Africa

Note: Monkeypox is more common and locally transmitted in west and central Africa; Data: WHO, Axios reporting; Map: Axios Visuals

A monkeypox outbreak in several European countries and one U.S. state may become the largest outbreak of the virus outside of Africa, but it's not likely to cause a global pandemic like COVID, an infectious disease expert tells Axios.

Why it matters: The CDC has confirmed at least one case in the United States. The current outbreak is small so far and scientists continue gathering data, but there may be community transmission of the virus.

"I'm sure that ultimately this will be the largest outbreak of monkeypox that we've had outside of the endemic areas in Africa," says Daniel Bausch, infectious disease expert and president of the American Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene.

"I don't think there's a reason for panic. I don't think we're going to have tens of thousands of cases," he tells Axios.

What's happening: Various countries are reporting confirmed and possible cases, including Australia, Canada, Belgium, Italy, the United Kingdom, Portugal, Sweden, Spain, Netherlands, Germany and France, per the World Health Organization.

Related to smallpox, monkeypox has two main types: the West African clade with a fatality rate of around 1% and the Congo Basin (Central African) clade, with a fatality rate of around 10%.

The current circulating strain appears to be the milder West African type that often starts with flu-like symptoms and swelling lymph node, progressing to a blistering rash. 

The smallpox vaccine is believed to be effective against monkeypox.

Details: Monkeypox, which can be transmitted by droplets and by close contact with infected skin lesions or contaminated materials, usually incubates in people for 6 to 13 days before symptoms appear.

Transmission can come from animals or human-to-human but "it is generally documented among very close contacts. So family members, people taking care of ill patients. Or health care providers," Andrea McCollum, the poxvirus epidemiology team lead at the CDC, told STAT News. 

Children are at higher risk, and monkeypox can cause pregnancy complications or stillbirth, per the WHO.

In the U.S., there have been reports of individuals infected with monkeypox before, particularly in international travelers from Nigeria, including a case in Texas and one in Maryland last year. 

Per the CDC, monkeypox re-emerged in Nigeria in 2017 after more than 40 years with no reported cases. 

Between the lines: The improvement in the global infectious diseases surveillance system is paying off with not only COVID but disease like monkeypox, Bausch adds.

What's next: WHO is scheduled to meet next week to discuss pox viruses, per STAT. 

Go deeper: First U.S. monkeypox case confirmed in Massachusetts

Editor's note: This post was updated to include countries that announced new confirmed cases of monkeypox.

What we know about the new monkeypox outbreak

This could become the largest outbreak of monkeypox in countries outside of Africa — but there's no need to panic, an infectious disease expert says.

Monkeypox

Public health

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

Fire weather days in Northern Mountains of New Mexico, by year

Data: Climate Central/NOAA NCEI; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

A wide range of extreme weather is on tap for the West beginning on Thursday and lasting through Saturday, which could include record heat, high winds, dangerous fire weather conditions and even a major snowstorm. 

The big picture: An intense cold front and storm system dives southeastward across the Rockies, bringing a potentially historic May snowstorm to the Colorado foothills and mountains, while aggravating wildfire conditions prior to its arrival. 

The widespread threat of "critical" fire weather conditions exists on Thursday into Friday, with red flag warnings up across nine states from California to New Mexico and Colorado, even extending into the High Plains states.

The weather conditions threaten to worsen a severe start to the wildfire season across the drought-stricken region. 

Threat level: A powerful cold front and low-pressure area is moving into the northern Rockies, with extremely cold air poised to spill in behind it. 

This front will be preceded Thursday by near-record heat in the Southwest, as well as dry air and high winds.  

In Denver, temperatures will be near 90°F today with high winds, before snow falls Friday night into the first part of the weekend.

The heat today will tie or break records in many places. 

Temperatures in the 90s to around 100°F from the Plains to the Southwest will be as much as 30 degrees above average, the National Weather Service said in an online discussion Thursday. 

"Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities," the NWS stated about the heat in Texas, in particular. 

The heat will also be a key component of the extremely dangerous wildfire conditions Thursday and in some regions into Friday too.

Context: Several large fires are already burning in New Mexico, including the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire, which at more than 300,000 acres is the largest in state history. 

Other blazes are burning in parts of Colorado, threatening to spread with the heat and strong winds. 

Of note: There is a long-term trend in many parts of the West toward more days that feature dangerous fire weather conditions. 

In the region where the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak blaze is burning, the average number of fire weather days per year — days with a combination of heat, high winds and dry air — has increased by 59 days since 1973. 

What's next: Once the cold front passes through central Colorado, it's likely that a significant snowstorm will take place from the foothills of the Rocky Mountains to higher elevations, such as Rocky Mountain National Park. 

Computer models are showing the likelihood for as much as two or more feet of snow in some higher elevations, with at least a few slushy inches falling in downtown Denver. Some models are showing even more snow in the Denver region, possibly as much as 8 inches.  

May snowstorms are not unheard of in the Denver metro area, but in some areas, such as Boulder, this event could be especially historic. Since trees have greened up already, the potential for widespread power outages looms large. 

Denver

Picture of the Denver skyline with DEN written across it.

Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporters John Frank and Alayna Alvarez.

Axios Denver

Denver Alerts

Axios Denver Thought Bubble

Wild weather includes "critical" fire risk, incoming Colorado snowstorm

Denver may go from about 90 degrees on Thursday to 35 degrees and snow by Saturday morning.

The Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire seen from a Maxar satellite.

Two new climate attribution studies underline the growing role human-caused climate change plays in worsening extreme weather events. 

Driving the news: The first study, out Wednesday from the U.K. Met Office, shows that climate change has already made the stifling and record heat seen this spring in northern India and Pakistan 100 times more likely to occur.

Why it matters: India in particular is seeing a sharp increase in urban heat extremes, which can sicken or kill thousands. This year, India saw its hottest March, and Pakistan along with parts of India had their hottest April. The record heat has continued this month as well.

What they found: The study examines the shifting probability of exceeding the record-breaking temperatures seen in April and May of 2010.

Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks

Climate change drove at least $4 billion of Typhoon Hagibis' insured damages, a new study found.

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