The science and business of space — from technological advances to the wonders of the universe.

Space

Tropical storms, tornadoes and flooding are among the extreme weather events causing destruction around the world.

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

National

Auckland authorities are urging residents to stay home if possible ahead of a  second atmospheric river event forecast to hit Tuesday after record rainfall flooded much of New Zealand's largest city Friday. 

The impact: At least four people have died after Auckland officials declared a state of emergency late Friday, after floodwaters inundated much of the city and many areas recorded their wettest-ever day. Further flooding was reported after more heavy rain over Sunday night.

The severe storm has also caused landslides, while flooding has closed roads across New Zealand's upper North Island.

Auckland Airport halted flights until Saturday after almost 11 inches of rain fell, flooding parts of the terminal and stranding hundreds of people over Friday night. 

The big picture: This marks an unprecedented rainfall event for Auckland and its surrounding areas, with some places getting a season's worth of rain in one day.

Auckland has recorded more than 769% of its normal January monthly rainfall and over 38% of its "entire ANNUAL rainfall" as of Monday morning local time, according to New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA).

By the numbers: Kumeu, a suburb north of Auckland, observed 79% of its normal summer rainfall in just 15 hours, with more than 6.5 inches of rain, per NIWA.

Albany, meanwhile, recorded 75% of its normal summer rain.

Castle Rock has the highest rainfall levels, with more than 12 inches of rain from Friday to noon Saturday.

Context: Atmospheric rivers are narrow currents of moisture-laden air that can transport vast amounts of water vapor thousands of miles.

Climate change is adding even more moisture to atmospheric rivers, enabling them to dump higher rain and snow totals, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

Thought bubble via Freedman: This extreme precipitation event is consistent with how climate change is altering weather worldwide.

Heavy rainfall events are already becoming more common and intense across the U.S. and in other countries since the atmosphere holds about 7% more water vapor per 1 degree Celsius of warming.

A screenshot of a tweet outlining record heavy rainfall in the Auckland region on Friday.

What's next: More heavy rain and possible thunderstorms forecast for northern New Zealand in the next few days could potentially aggravate the flooding.

National weather agency MetService has issued multiple severe weather warnings and watches for the Northland region for 24 hours from early Tuesday and Auckland for 12 hours from 6pm that night.

Axios' Andrew Freedman contributed to this report.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with details on further rainfall, flooding, landslides, the death toll increase from three to four, and the forecast of a second atmospheric river event.

New Zealand's flood-hit largest city braces for second atmospheric river

Auckland has recorded more than 769% of its normal January monthly rainfall and  over 38% of its entire annual rainfall as rains continue.

A digger is submerged in a flooded construction site on Jan. 28 in Auckland, New Zealand. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty Images

New Zealand

Climate change

Climate Truths

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Dozens of cars were involved in a massive pileup amid snowy conditions in southern Wisconsin, authorities said Friday.

Driving the news: At least 27 people were hospitalized, though the extent of their injuries was not yet known, per local station WIFR-TV.

State Patrol officials said an initial investigation indicated 85 vehicles were involved.

Snow, ice and whiteout conditions are believed to be a factor in the initial crash, per State Patrol.

Details: The crash occurred about 12:30pm Friday on Interstate 39/90 in Rock County, blocking traffic in both directions.  

Southbound lanes opened just after 8pm, with all lanes reopening just before 10pm.

Zoom in: Video from WIFR-TV showed dozens of cars, as well as semitrailers, backed up as emergency workers assisted people on the road. 

Zoom out: A winter weather advisory was in effect for much of southern Wisconsin on Friday afternoon, with more snow expected Saturday.

Snowy conditions lead to massive pileup in Wisconsin

Milwaukee during below-zero temperatures in December 2022. Photo: Alex Wroblewski for The Washington Post via Getty Images

Wisconsin

Data: NOAA; Note: 10, 25, and 75 year periods are calculated from 2013, 1998, and 1948 to 2022; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Over the past 75 years, Punxsutawney Phil has correctly predicted whether there will be an early spring 69% of the time, according to an Axios analysis of NOAA data. 

Why it matters: Over the long run, Phil is fairly accurate. It’s high time to vindicate Phil and let his record shine!

Details: Past analyses have slighted Phil by either including fairly few years of data, analyzing the U.S. as a whole, or being very generous as to their definition of an early spring.

We defined an early spring as one that’s significantly warmer — by one standard deviation — than the average of the previous 30 years. 

Phil was accurate 64% of the time over a 25-year period and 57% of the time over a 10-year period.

Charted: Punxsutawney "Skill"

Data graphics

Axios Science

Two new analyses detail how land clearing and degradation are pushing the Amazon rainforest toward a tipping point of no longer being a forest that supports an abundance of life and buffers Earth from climate change.

Why it matters: The findings offer insights for policy paths and priorities aimed at trying to save the climate-crucial ecosystem.  

Driving the news: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro formed a "grand pact" earlier this month to try to save the Amazon "for humanity."

The first anti-deforestation raids on Lula's watch took place last week to stop illegal clearing of the forest.

Earlier this month, Lula signed a series of executive orders to address illegal deforestation in Brazil, which is home to 60% of the Amazon forest, and reactivated the Amazon Fund that invests in efforts to stop deforestation.

Where it stands: An estimated 13% to 17% of the original Amazon rainforest has been deforested over the last half century.

"Somewhere in the next 10% or 20%, there will be a phase shift," says James Albert, a biologist at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette. A recent analysis suggests about 31% of the eastern Amazon has been deforested — far above the estimated threshold of 20% to 25%.

"Forests exist within a range of factors that can keep them as forest," he says. But they can be pushed to a point where they turn from a forest to a savanna or degraded landscape, get too dry, and "simply burn."

What's new: In a paper published today in the journal Science, Albert and an international team of scientists report humans are causing changes to the Amazonian ecosystem in a matter of decades or centuries, as opposed to millions to tens of millions of years for natural processes.

"Organisms can't adapt in the period of decades or centuries," Albert says.

Another analysis published today looked at the lesser-known problem of land degradation in the Amazon due to logging, fires, extreme droughts and changes at the edges of the forest caused by the habitat being fragmented.

Deforestation changes the landcover and can be spotted by satellites. Degradation stems from changes in how the land is used and can be hidden by the forest canopy — a forest continues to be a forest but is degraded and weakened.

Using data from earlier studies and new satellite images, the authors estimate about 2.5 million square kilometers of the Amazon — about 38% of the remaining forest — is considered degraded by one or more the disturbances. That's in addition to the deforestation. 

They also found the carbon lost from the forest due to degradation is on par with that due to deforestation — and degradation can lead to as much loss of the forest's biodiversity as deforestation. 

Their projections suggest "degradation will continue to be a major source of emissions in the region, regardless of what happens with deforestation," says study co-author David Lapola, a research scientist at the University of Campinas (Unicamp) in Brazil. 

"We need specific policies to handle degradation. It’s not using the same policies and actions for deforestation," he says.

Between the lines: Deforestation reduces the forest's ability to generate rainclouds, which, combined with climate change, significantly raises the odds of drought. And the more fragmented the forest is, the harder it is to bounce back after a drought ends.

Controlling fire, timber extraction and deforestation is "something Brazil and the other Amazonian countries can tackle and it's their responsibility," Lapola says. 

But the extreme droughts are caused by "global climate change, which is not only for us to solve," he says. 

The big picture: Passing the forest's tipping point would be devastating for the forest's biodiversity and for the Indigenous people that live there. 

But the forests of the Amazon aren't just a reservoir for more than 3 million species of plants and animals: They store large amounts of carbon dioxide that, if the forests die, would be released back into the atmosphere. 

Releasing that carbon dioxide would be "throwing away the goal" of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Colombia's Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development Maria Susana Muhamad said last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos. 

"But at the same time we know that could be the future prosperity for our countries," she added, referring to the economic benefits stemming from the Amazon's resources that are largely reaped by people in cities and other countries.

"We're not going to stop development and nor should we. Humans have the right to use their land and resources," Albert says. 

"But the problem is how it's being done," he adds. He and his co-authors outline a "new Amazonian bioeconomy" based on sustainable use of the forest's resources that "extends beyond extractive and export-based economic activities."

More than one-third of the Amazon forest is degraded, study says

Two new analyses detail how land clearing and degradation are pushing the Amazon rainforest toward a tipping point

A deforested and burning area of the Amazon rainforest in the region of Labrea, state of Amazonas, northern Brazil, on Sept. 2, 2022. Photo: Douglas Magno/AFP via Getty Images

Deforestation

Generate

Axios Generate

A "multi-hazard storm system" that triggered multiple reports of damage from tornadoes and flooding in and near Houston on Tuesday is threatening to unleash further damage across the Gulf Coast.

The latest: Tornado risks remained as more than 15 million people in Gulf Coast areas including Houston, New Orleans and parts of Alabama were under threat from the storm, which was sweeping through Mississippi coastal communities as it pushed northeastward overnight.

By the numbers: Outages were affecting nearly 52,000 customers in Arkansas and more than 17, 200 others in Louisiana early Wednesday, according to utility tracker poweroutage.us. And nearly 57,300 customers were still without power in eastern Texas.

Of note: At least one tornado emergency — a very rare and limited warning — was issued for southeastern Harris County, Texas, according to the National Weather Service.

Tornado damage was reported in Pasadena, where power lines were knocked out and radar indicated debris from one twister near the city reached about 8,000 feet in the air.

Threat level: Areas most at risk overnight included New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Mobile, Ala., and extreme northwestern Florida. The Storm Prediction Center placed these areas in an "Enhanced Risk" zone, which is a level 3 out of 5 on its severe storm risk scale.

Winter weather was expected to hit West and North Texas on Tuesday, too.

Louisiana's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness said the state faced "another severe weather threat this week" and residents should remain alert.

State of play: Photos of the damage shared on social media showed crushed power lines, damaged homes, flooding and trashed roads, as tornado warnings were issued in Texas and across the South.

The hard-hit areas included many of the region's petrochemical plants, some of which had to be quickly shut down due to the severe weather. 

Zoom in: The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center recorded at least four tornado reports in Texas by Tuesday afternoon, as the Atascocita Fire Department said there was "a tornado related structure collapse" at a nursing home in the state's Deer Park.

Ground stops were issued for both Hobby and Bush International airports as the storms moved through Texas and flights weren't allowed to land there, the Houston Chronicle reports.

A senior assisted living facility in Deer Park was destroyed after a storm tore through the area, per the New York Times. While no one was injured, some 59 residents were displaced.

A screenshot of a tweet by the Houston fire chief warning, "Significant Tornado damage in areas of southeast HTX/Harris County."

Photo: City of Houston Fire Department Chief Samuel Peña/Twitter

What's next: The intensifying storm was expected to "have widespread impacts over the next few days across large areas to the east of the Mississippi River," per a National Weather Service forecast discussion early Wednesday.

It was set to push through the Ohio Valley and Lower Lakes on Wednesday and into the Northeast by early Thursday.

"This storm will be multi faceted and have significant impacts across a large portion of the nation from the Gulf coast into the Northeast," the NWS said.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details throughout.

Houston

Houston Members

Houston Alerts

blue

A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Houston.

Axios Houston Thought Bubble

Axios Houston

Severe storms threaten Gulf Coast after tornadoes hit Houston

At least one tornado emergency was issued Tuesday.

A photo showing damage from a reported tornado in Houston, Texas.

Tornadoes

Axios Space

The night sky is getting dramatically brighter due to light pollution spreading across the globe — and it poses an existential crisis for our ability to study space.

Why it matters: Information about distant galaxies and star systems gathered through telescopes and other tools is vital for humanity's understanding of our place in the universe.

Driving the news: A new study published in Science last week found through 51,351 citizen scientists' observations from 2011 to 2022 that light pollution increased the brightness of the night sky by 7%–10% per year. 

That increase is far more than estimates made through satellite measurements that previously suggested an increase of about 2% per year. 

Another study published at the end of 2022 found 21 of 28 "major astronomical observatory sites" are under skies that have a level of light pollution that is able to seriously affect their observations. 

The intrigue: Scientists have found light pollution affects animal migration patterns and sleep-wake cycles, and it harms insect populations that birds and other animals depend on for food. 

"We are cutting territory with walls of light," Fabio Falchi, a light pollution researcher who was uninvolved in the new study, tells Axios. 

"A bridge over a river is not a wall for some species, but during the night when it is lighted, this light is cutting the river in half for some species. So we are fragmenting the environment where animals live."

According to Christopher Kyba of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences and one of the authors of the new study, a good rule of thumb is to only light what needs to be lit — like a sign — when it needs to be lit and only the amount of light that you need for it to be seen.

Between the lines: The increase in light pollution each year is likely, in part, caused by growing cities and wasteful lighting techniques, Kyba said. 

"When you see that the sky keeps getting brighter, year after year, it means we're just doing a bad job of lighting our cities," Kyba said, adding that taxpayers are paying for much of that lighting. "We're also using a lot of fossil fuels to produce all of that light."

The big picture: Light pollution from the ground isn't the only threat to astronomy. Scientists are still concerned about how constellations of satellites could impede their views of distant cosmic objects from the ground.

Astronomers worry that as the sky fills up with satellites — like SpaceX's Starlink constellation — it will become more difficult to see the stars behind the swarms of moving spacecraft. 

The National Science Foundation and SpaceX, however, are coordinating to mitigate the impacts of the Starlink constellation on observatories on Earth, including adjustments to the satellites themselves to make them look darker.

What's next: Scientists stress that more research is needed in order to figure out exactly why night skies appear to be increasing in brightness each year. 

If participation by citizen scientists in the study increases enough, Kyba said, the research team may be able to get more granular with their data, looking at individual states or cities instead of continents. 

Once researchers have that data, they will be able to say what regions are doing better or worse when combatting light pollution and maybe translate that into broader solutions.

Light pollution's existential threat to astronomy

Scientists have found light pollution affects animal migration patterns and sleep-wake cycles.

Illustration of a light dimmer sliding down and revealing a starry sky behind it

Stars

Data: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

In an annual update announced Tuesday morning, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set the symbolic Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds to midnight.

Why it matters: The setting moves the clock's hands closer to midnight than it has ever been before.

The clock is a figurative tracker of the world's proximity to total human-caused destruction. The clock's hands are moved closer to midnight to suggest humanity is nearer to self-made catastrophe, and farther when that risk appears to fade.

The big picture: Since its inception in 1947, the Doomsday Clock was initially used to represent the danger posed by nuclear weapons. It has since evolved to take into account the risks posed by climate change, bioweapons, and disinformation.

The move forward closer to midnight was due "largely, though not exclusively, because of the mounting dangers in the war in Ukraine," Rachel Bronson, current president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said at the press conference Tuesday.

"Russia’s thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons remind the world that escalation of the conflict—by accident, intention, or miscalculation—is a terrible risk. The possibility that the conflict could spin out of anyone’s control remains high," the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists said in a press release.

The group also highlighted other factors that played a role in the clock's setting.

Among these are "China’s considerable expansion of its nuclear capabilities" and North Korea's increase in its missile testing.

The climate crisis also continues to pose an existential threat, with global carbon dioxide emissions rebounding from their pandemic low and climate change-linked extreme weather events abounding.

Bio-threats are also a concern. "Devastating events like the COVID-19 pandemic can no longer be considered rare, once-a-century occurrences," the press release noted.

The press release added that "cyber-enabled disinformation continues unabated," pointing to instances of strict information control in Russia as an example. In the U.S., political opposition prevented the creation of a “Disinformation Governance Board” proposed by the Department of Homeland Security, it added.

Catch up quick: Since 2020, the clock had remained at 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it had ever been until this year's new setting.

The past year has been marked by heightened fears of nuclear war stemming from Russia's war in Ukraine as well as extreme weather events.

War in Ukraine pushes Doomsday Clock forward

The setting moves the clock's hands closer to midnight than it has ever been before.

DAVOS, Switzerland — The world is entering an era of biology — and the field's power is an emerging theme on the agenda of a cohort of scientists, entrepreneurs and business leaders at this week's World Economic Forum.

The big picture: Scientific capability and prowess have been "a defining feature of power" over the past 100 years, Matthew McKnight, general manager of biosecurity at the synthetic biology company Ginkgo Bioworks told me on the sidelines of the annual event.  

First, it was chemistry that created an economy fueled by petroleum.

Next, physics was harnessed to build atomic weapons during World War II and then for the development of airplanes, communications and the space industry.

Then, physics and chemistry together birthed the microchip and the computing revolution.

Base pairs, amino acids, enzymes and other biological molecules underpin a vision for an economy built on biologically engineered and produced materials, medicines, fuel and food.

In Davos, biology was featured as a tool for addressing climate change: Loam, a startup based in Australia and the U.S., is leveraging microbes in soil to boost crop yields — and sequester carbon. They coat seeds with a fungus that makes forms of carbon that are stored in the soil for hundreds of years or more.

“I would love to get more people [at Davos] to think more creatively about how microbial science can help address climate change,” says Loam's CEO and co-founder Guy Hudson.

In the public health sphere, Davos discussions focused on the need to spot new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Ginkgo Bioworks is working with a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) program at airports to try to spot virus subvariants as travelers enter the U.S. 

Passengers can volunteer to answer questions and provide a nasal swab. This week they announced a pilot program to monitor for influenza viruses as well, which could yield data to help scientists develop the vaccine for next year's flu season. 

Another arm of the program uses wastewater from airplane toilets to monitor pathogens, an inexpensive method honed during the pandemic.

"Radar" systems like these for infectious diseases, microbes and genetically altered threats can be part of a biosecurity infrastructure that could work like cybersecurity monitoring to find threats early, McKnight says. 

"Biology doesn't respect borders," which underscores the need for a biology monitoring network, he says.

The capability to monitor for biological threats could be a powerful national security tool and "important for the long-term biosecurity of our country,” White House COVID-19 Response coordinator Ashish Jha told Politico. 

What to watch: Science is an economic force but new science especially comes with a risk of being used for nefarious purposes. (A separate panel explored so-called dual-use technologies, which include pathogen-enhancing research and genome editing.)

Biology will be used offensively by bad actors, McKnight predicts. But leveraging biology for defensive capabilities is equally powerful, he says.

Biology is power

Scientific capability and prowess have been "a defining feature of power" over the past 100 years.

Illustration of a collage featuring a briefcase containing a chemistry set. 

Biology

The death toll in the Buffalo blizzard has risen to 47 after Erie County officials confirmed on Thursday that three more people had lost their lives during the destructive winter storm.

Driving the news: Erie County executive Mark Poloncarz tweeted that they died after cardiac events that were witnessed by others, but emergency responders were unable to reach them in time due to the historic blizzard.

A screenshot of the Eerie County CEO's tweet confirming three more deaths in last month's historic Buffalo blizzard, after emergency responders couldn't reach the patients.

Photo: Erie County executive Mark Poloncarz/ Twitter

What we're watching: The storm death toll could still rise as the medical examiner was awaiting toxicology results in order to confirm the causes of three deaths, per Poloncarz.

The big picture: Buffalo bore the brunt of what New York Gov. Kathy Hochul described as "the most devastating storm" in the city's history, as it froze several substations and created hazardous conditions during the busy holiday travel period.

In addition to the 46 people who died in Erie County, one person was found dead in the Niagara County town of Lockport of suspected carbon monoxide poisoning.

Between the lines: What made this extreme weather event so dangerous for Buffalo, a city that's used to heavy snow, were the days of extremely strong winds, frigid temperatures and heavy snow, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

Some residents questioned Erie County officials storm preparation plans after officials issued a travel advisory to go into effect at 7am on Dec. 23 ET, but the travel ban didn't go into effect until 9.30am the next morning — as the blizzard was already under way.

Many wanted the travel ban to be implemented earlier and the Washington Post reports there have been ongoing demonstrations over Buffalo's "emergency preparedness processes, budget, and its lack of participation in the county’s planning."

Of note: New York's second-largest city has gone for years without an official emergency manager, whose job it is to create "procedures for responding to natural disasters and other emergencies" and lead and help coordinate the response, according to WashPost.

Vinny Ventresca, the president of Buffalo Professional Firefighters Local 282, said at a Buffalo Common Council meeting Tuesday that the city's fire commissioner, William Renaldo, who was given these responsibilities in lieu of an emergency manager, was away on vacation at the time of the storm, per WBFO.

What they're saying: Local officials defended their actions. Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown told the Washington Post late last month "everything that could have been done in the lead-up to the storm, and during the storm was done."

Renaldo told lawmakers when he appeared before the Common Council's Community Development Committee on Tuesday that the city was well-equipped ahead of the storm and rejected the firefighters' union's claims that equipment was old and worn and had hampered their efforts, according to the Buffalo News.

"On the apparatus and equipment side, we activated all four of our alternative response vehicles in anticipation of a higher-than-normal volume of EMS calls," Renaldo said. 

  A screenshot of the Eerie County CEO’s tweet last month on whether the driving ban should’ve occurred earlier over the storm, saying “I do not know if it would have changed anything.'

Photo: Erie County executive Mark Poloncarz/Twitter

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comment from the Buffalo fire commissioner, the president of the Buffalo Professional Firefighters Local 282 and the city's mayor, along with additional context.

Death toll in Buffalo's historic December blizzard rises to 47

Officials said 7 of the deaths were linked to delayed EMS responses during the destructive storm.

A resident leaves a local corner store in Buffalo, New York, on December 26, 2022 during a historic blizzard.

The scene at one of the few grocery stores open in Buffalo, New York, on Dec. 26 during the historic winter storm. Photo: Joed Viera /AFP via Getty Images

extreme weather

President Biden said Thursday during a visit to survey damage from recent atmospheric river storms in California that "if anybody doubts climate is changing, then they must have been asleep for the last couple of years."

Driving the news: Biden met with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who praised the administration for approving a presidential emergency declaration before he even requested it.

Biden slams climate change doubters while surveying storm damage

"Three years of a mega drought ... and we've now had three weeks of mega floods," California Gov. Gavin Newsom said.

Science

All Science stories