The Marine Corps has been ramping up its preparations for potential cold-weather conflicts in places like Russia or North Korea, per Marine Corps Times. Marine Commandant Gen. Robert B. Neller said last month at CSIS: “There is a possibility we are going to be there."
Why it matters: The Marine Corps is behind our allies and enemies in preparing to fight in such conditions, per Marine Corps Times. “We haven’t been in the cold-weather business for a while,” Gen. Neller said. Many Marines are used to training for battles in desert-like terrains in the Middle East, as opposed to icy, snowy, and mountainous terrains, which require vastly different skill sets.
The U.S. has been in talks with Asian allies about "a stepped-up crackdown...to squeeze Pyongyang's use of seagoing trade to feed its nuclear missile program," Reuters reports. The plan "could include deploying U.S. Coast Guard forces to stop and search vessels in Asia-Pacific waters."
Why it matters: The new strategy would lead to the possible seizure of any ships believed to have "banned weapons components and other prohibited cargo" on board and be carrying it to or from North Korea, per Reuters.
China's Communist Party's Central Committee announced they will hold the Third Plenum Feb. 26-28 in Beijing, per Xinhua. Led by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the CPCC meeting discussed lists of proposed candidates for various leadership positions.
Why this matters: Holding the Third Plenum earlier than normal and just before the "Two Meetings" in early March highlights Xi's resolve to implement various economic and political reforms.
I've always considered cynicism the tool that lazy people use to appear sophisticated. But it’s hard not to smirk at the world’s five big votes scheduled for the spring.
See for yourself, starting with an election in Italy that is just two weeks away:
President Trump has accelerated his diplomatic efforts to broker peace among quarreling Arab monarchies, starting with an upcoming series of White House visits by leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Axios has learned.
The impact: Sources with knowledge of the negotiations tell us they hope these separate meetings — hugely consequential in their own right — will lead to a peace deal over Qatar in late spring at a summit in Washington or Camp David. That could help end the longstanding dispute over its alleged support for terrorism and ties to Iran.
Bloomberg reports that the meeting former Trump campaign aide Rick Gates lied about to investigators, to which he pled guilty on Friday, was between Paul Manafort and Congressman Dana Rohrabacher.
Why it matters: Rohrabacher is known for being close to the Kremlin — he came under scrutiny for it in November last year. Gates and Manafort have been charged by special counsel Robert Mueller for not registering foreign lobbying work with the government, money laundering, new tax fraud charges, "and again on Friday with conspiracy and false-statement counts."
Israel’s strike on Syrian targets earlier this month, in response to an Iranian drone that launched from Syria and entered Israeli airspace, marked the most serious clash to date between Israel and Iran and its local proxies. It was also the latest example of Russia's interjection into the conflict. Indeed, discussion of further military action by Israel only ended after a call between President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Why it matters: As hostilities intensify in Syria, Russia is poised to expand its role in the region, portraying itself as a neutral broker to further the Kremlin’s own interests.
Appearing in court today, former Trump campaign aide Rick Gates pled guilty to one count of conspiracy against the United States and one count of making false statements to the FBI and to the Special Counsel at a meeting last month. In preparation for the guilty plea, Robert Mueller filed superseding criminal information earlier today which alleged Gates and Manafort laundered tens of millions of dollars that they earned through their work for the Ukrainian government.
Why it matters: Mueller now has the cooperation of a key player who worked closely with the Trump campaign, and stayed on the team even after Manafort resigned as campaign manager. Manafort released a statement today maintaining his innocence, but the pressure is at an all-time high now that his former partner is ready to talk.
What's next: Federal guidelines suggest Gates will face a sentence of 57 to 71 months, but these are only advisory and are subject to discretion, per Bloomberg. Gates' status hearing is for May 14, indicating the Mueller probe has no intention of winding down before then.
Just ahead of the annual "Two Meetings" in early March, the Communist Party's Central Committee (CPCC) may hold the Third Plenum — a move that would be unexpectedly earlier than normal in the year and could highlight Chinese President Xi Jinping's resolve to implement reforms.
The key decisions are rumored to be related to possible restructuring of the financial regulatory system as well as the replacement for Zhou Xiaochuan as head of the People's Bank of China. Reuters reports Xi confidant Liu He has emerged as a front runner to head China’s central bank.
The U.S. embassy will move to Jerusalem on May 14th — the day Israel declared its independence in 1948 and the day President Harry Truman recognized the state of Israel, Israeli officials told me. The White House isn't commenting, but a U.S. official confirmed the plans.
The bottom line: That's a lot sooner than expected. During his visit to Israel last month, Vice President Mike Pence said only that the embassy would move to Jerusalem by the end of 2019.
Rick Gates, Trump's former campaign advisor and Paul Manafort's business partner, is expected to plead guilty in the special counsel's Russia probe as soon as Friday afternoon, reports the New York Times.
Why it matters: "The plea deal could be a significant development in the investigation — a sign that Mr. Gates plans to offer incriminating information against his longtime associate and the former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, or other members of the Trump campaign in exchange for a lighter punishment." [NYT]
Billionaire casino magnate and prominent GOP donor Sheldon Adelson has offered to pay for some portion of the new U.S. embassy in Jerusalem, which could stretch into the hundreds of millions of dollars, according to an AP report. His offer comes as the State Department is reportedly researching the legal roadblocks surrounding funding the project via private donations.
Why it matters: The move would be highly irregular for an American diplomatic complex and raise significant questions surrounding conflicts of interest, especially given Adelson's extensive contributions in support of right-wing Israeli politics.
An uncomfortable pair of stories for the White House:
"Russia’s dirty tricks ... And why the West’s response is inadequate" — The Economist cover editorial
"A Russian oligarch [who was indicted by Mueller last week and is] believed to control the Russian mercenaries who attacked U.S. troops and their allies in Syria this month was in close touch with Kremlin ... in the days and weeks before and after the assault," according to the Washington Post.
Yevgeniy Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch who controls a mercenary force in Syria, was communicating with Syrian officials and the Kremlin "days and weeks before and after" an attack on U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces earlier this month, the Washington Post reports.
Why it matters: This could indicate that the Kremlin signed off on an attack against U.S. troops in Syria that left scores of Russians dead and threatens to raise military tensions to new heights. It also adds to the intrigue surrounding Prigozhin, a Putin ally who was indicted by Robert Mueller for operating the Russian "troll farm" that carried out online election interference.
