National

In recent years, the accelerating cross-border flow of migrants fleeing violence and poverty has remade the politics of Europe and the United States. 

What to watch: A startling new study from Stanford University warns that the conflicts we've seen to date may just be the opening act of a much larger and more dangerous drama.

In 2007–2008, a drought wiped out the livelihoods of huge numbers of Syrians living in the countryside, forcing them into already overcrowded cities. This forced internal migration created stresses that combined with existing problems to create social unrest, a harsh government crackdown and then a civil war.

The war created an exodus of millions of desperate Syrians toward neighboring countries and then to Europe, where more than 1 million of them landed in 2015.

This wave of refugees, joined by migrants from other places, sparked intense fear and hostility among some in Europe, creating opportunities for politicians to win support with vows to stop the flow. That's a major reason why xenophobic populism has become Europe's fastest-growing political phenomenon.

In 2014–2018, an unusually severe drought hit Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Years of erratic weather, failed harvests and a chronic lack of jobs decimated entire villages in all three countries and created strong incentives for migrants to try to reach the United States.

The arrival of these migrants at the U.S. southern border further polarized the politics of a country already divided over immigration, racial tensions and lost manufacturing jobs.

The report warns that populations are set to explode in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and Central America in coming years. 

The working-age population of sub-Saharan Africa alone is expected to increase by nearly a billion people between 2020 and 2060. Over time, we're likely to see "regional demographic explosions of young people."

In coming decades, overcrowding in these places will exacerbate desertification, water shortages and urbanization. Mounting ecological stresses will provoke violent political conflict, forcing more people to hit the road in search of a better life.

In other words: The combination of extreme weather patterns and growing populations of young people in poorer countries will combine to create more migration, more political anger and a greater risk of conflict within and among countries.

But, but, but: The study's authors say this bad news is not inevitable. Good government, in both poor and rich countries, can help avoid this risk. 

If poor countries invest more in education, they can create jobs and other opportunities that persuade many more people that they can build a safe and prosperous future, for themselves and their families, where they are. 

It's in the interest of rich countries to help. And governments of rich and poor countries can work together much more effectively to slow the advance of climate change. If they do, say the study's authors, both sides will benefit.

Sign up for Signal, a thrice-weekly newsletter from GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company.

Waves of migration will only grow larger

A look at the root causes indicates there's more to come

A migrant caravan crosses from Guatemala into Mexico. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images

World

Immigration

In recent years, the accelerating cross-border flow of migrants fleeing violence and poverty has remade the politics of Europe and the United States. What to watch: A <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="startling new study" data-vars-click-url="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=23512c6cb7&amp;e=51aaed0a65" data-vars-content-id="2a52006f-545c-484c-80cf-2a4df09d3d55" data-vars-headline="Waves of migration will only grow larger" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=23512c6cb7&amp;e=51aaed0a65" target="_blank">startling new study</a> from Stanford University warns that the conflicts we&#x27;ve seen to date may just be the opening act of a much larger and more dangerous drama.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The Aquarius migrant rescue ship made headlines across Europe in June when Italy refused entry to it and the 630 rescued migrants on board. Now, it's back.

The bottom line: The Aquarius, the only rescue ship now patrolling the waters off Libya, will keep returning to a continent that's still in search of a burden-sharing solution on migration. It’s both a moral dilemma and a serious political problem.  

In June, Spain’s newly elected government came to the rescue by opening a port and accepting the passengers. The story was a political winner at home for both Italy’s Interior Minister Salvini, who said no, and Spain’s new prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, who said yes. 

Last week, the ship run by humanitarian organizations Doctors Without Borders and SOS Méditerranée was carrying 141 migrants, including 67 unaccompanied children, rescued in international waters. Italy and Libya again refused entry, and this time Spain also said no. After a four-day standoff, Malta accepted the ship, but only after France, Germany, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain agreed to accept a share of the 141 rescued passengers. 

What to watch: With Italy literally offering radio silence in response to requests for help, Spain will again be in the spotlight. Does Sánchez want Spain to become the haven that accepts the rescued migrants that other EU countries reject? If not, what happens to these people?  

Europe's age of Aquarius

A ship, a moral dilemma, and a serious political problem

Aquarius pull into port in Valencia. Photo: Pau Barrena/AFP/Getty Images

Top Stories

<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="The Aquarius" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/14219079.13010/aHR0cHM6Ly9ldXJhc2lhZ3JvdXAudXMxMi5saXN0LW1hbmFnZS5jb20vdHJhY2svY2xpY2s_dT03NDA0ZTZkY2RjODAxOGY0OWM4MmU5NDFkJmlkPThiYzczYzc3ODImZT01MWFhZWQwYTY1JnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zd29ybGQmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9B30239602" data-vars-content-id="6263e2b1-f77c-4540-9b79-9120f5714e81" data-vars-headline="Europe&#x27;s age of Aquarius" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/14219079.13010/aHR0cHM6Ly9ldXJhc2lhZ3JvdXAudXMxMi5saXN0LW1hbmFnZS5jb20vdHJhY2svY2xpY2s_dT03NDA0ZTZkY2RjODAxOGY0OWM4MmU5NDFkJmlkPThiYzczYzc3ODImZT01MWFhZWQwYTY1JnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zd29ybGQmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9B30239602" target="_blank">The Aquarius</a> migrant rescue ship made <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="headlines across Europe in June" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/14219079.13010/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2JpZy1waWN0dXJlLWhvdy1hLW1pZ3JhbnQtc2hpcC1zaGlwLWhlYWRlZC10by1pdGFseS1lbmRlZC11cC1pbi1zcGFpbi0xNTI4NzM3ODMwLWI0MjM4MjFkLWNkYTAtNGE0MS1iZWVmLTdjNzdkMjUxYjdiYi5odG1sP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zd29ybGQmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9Bb016804a" data-vars-content-id="6263e2b1-f77c-4540-9b79-9120f5714e81" data-vars-headline="Europe&#x27;s age of Aquarius" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/14219079.13010/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2JpZy1waWN0dXJlLWhvdy1hLW1pZ3JhbnQtc2hpcC1zaGlwLWhlYWRlZC10by1pdGFseS1lbmRlZC11cC1pbi1zcGFpbi0xNTI4NzM3ODMwLWI0MjM4MjFkLWNkYTAtNGE0MS1iZWVmLTdjNzdkMjUxYjdiYi5odG1sP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zd29ybGQmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9Bb016804a" target="_blank">headlines across Europe in June</a> when Italy refused entry to it and the 630 rescued migrants on board. Now, it&#x27;s<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" back" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/14219079.13010/aHR0cHM6Ly9ldXJhc2lhZ3JvdXAudXMxMi5saXN0LW1hbmFnZS5jb20vdHJhY2svY2xpY2s_dT03NDA0ZTZkY2RjODAxOGY0OWM4MmU5NDFkJmlkPTk4ZWQyODA0ZGEmZT01MWFhZWQwYTY1JnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zd29ybGQmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9Ca350b5c4" data-vars-content-id="6263e2b1-f77c-4540-9b79-9120f5714e81" data-vars-headline="Europe&#x27;s age of Aquarius" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/14219079.13010/aHR0cHM6Ly9ldXJhc2lhZ3JvdXAudXMxMi5saXN0LW1hbmFnZS5jb20vdHJhY2svY2xpY2s_dT03NDA0ZTZkY2RjODAxOGY0OWM4MmU5NDFkJmlkPTk4ZWQyODA0ZGEmZT01MWFhZWQwYTY1JnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zd29ybGQmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9Ca350b5c4" target="_blank"> back</a>.The bottom line: The Aquarius, the only rescue ship now patrolling the waters off Libya, will keep returning to a continent that&#x27;s still in search of a burden-sharing solution on migration. It’s both a moral dilemma and a serious political problem.

In the spring of 1989, Chinese students began gathering in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, at first to mourn the death of reformist leader Hu Yaobang and then in hopes of persuading their government to allow greater political freedom across the country.

Flashback: Over a period of six weeks, the crowd swelled as older people joined and the list of demands broadened. The occupation of the square took on a life on its own, and some within the Communist Party leadership began to see a threat to their monopoly on political power.

The contest for control of the square soon became a battle for information. 

Protest leaders assigned lookouts to watch for any approach of troops. Any sign of movement by police or soldiers sent protesters scrambling to landline telephones in nearby buildings to call supporters to flood the square to make it more difficult for security forces to enter.

On June 4, 1989, under cover of darkness, Chinese tanks finally pushed into Tiananmen, crushing the protests and killing hundreds, perhaps thousands, of people.

On Tuesday, many around the world will mark the 30-year anniversary of that event, a moment that changed China and the trajectory of world history. 

But, of course, the occasion will not be marked inside China, at least not publicly. That's because gaining access to the history of Tiananmen is, for most Chinese, still a battle for information, even if it's no longer a fight over landline phones or state-run TV and radio.

Only those over the age of 35 have any personal memory of the event. 

And while today China's citizens can use digital and social media to speak directly with one another, the government still controls communications and access to information.

Social media accounts in China must be registered to users' real names, and tech companies are required to give the government access to all of their users' information if asked to do so.

Beyond keeping Tiananmen references off the traditional airwaves, advances in artificial intelligence also allow government computers to patrol the Internet in search of any reference to the Tiananmen protests and crackdown. 

The numbers 46 and 64, potential references to June 4, are removed from online posts. In 2012, censors briefly blocked access to the search term "Shanghai Stock market" after the index coincidentally fell exactly 64.89 points on the anniversary of the massacre.

Terms even loosely associated with the protests and crackdown are diverted to unrelated results. Video recognition software is programmed to scrub away any photographic reference to the events.

The bottom line: Three decades later, it's clear that China's leaders still fear the Chinese people and what they might want more than they fear any threat from abroad.

China's government still fears the message from Tiananmen Square

A battle for information began in 1989. It's still ongoing

Pro-democracy student demonstrators face-to-face with police during the funeral ceremony of liberal reformer Hu Yaobang in April, 1989. The protests were crushed six weeks later. Photo: Catherine Henriette/AFP/Getty Images

China

In the spring of 1989, Chinese students began gathering in Beijing&#x27;s Tiananmen Square, at first to mourn the death of reformist leader Hu Yaobang and then in hopes of persuading their government to allow greater political freedom across the country.Flashback: Over a period of six weeks, the crowd swelled as older people joined and the list of demands broadened. The occupation of the square took on a life on its own, and some within the Communist Party leadership began to see a threat to their monopoly on political power.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Being a U.S. ally might soon get a lot more expensive. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a plan that would force countries not only to pay for the full cost of hosting American troops in their territory, but also to pony up an additional 50% premium on that bill for the security that the U.S. soldiers provide. 

By the numbers: Under those terms, some countries will pay as much as six times the amount they currently pay. To put this in perspective, U.S. troops are stationed in more than 100 countries around the world. There are 56,000 American soldiers in Japan, 35,000 in Germany, 28,500 in South Korea, 12,000 in Italy, and 9,000 in the U.K.

The leak of this plan may merely be the opening bid in a series of tough negotiations, but let's take it at face value.

Those in Washington who favor this plan, led by Donald Trump, are asking a few simple questions:

World War II ended almost 75 years ago, so why is the U.S. still responsible for guaranteeing the security of Germany and Japan, which are now among the richest countries on Earth?

Haven't Germany and Japan become prosperous in part because U.S. protection allows them to avoid spending billions on their own defense?

If U.S. troops and taxpayers must continue to accept this responsibility, shouldn't countries that benefit from the U.S. presence pay fully for the privilege?

Are those who live in these countries and want U.S. troops leave prepared for their governments to take much more money from their paychecks while cutting their pensions and benefits to pay more for defense?

The U.S. isn't simply doing other countries a favor by placing troops on their soil — those soldiers deliver geopolitical benefits that can't be measured in dollars and cents. U.S. bases in Japan, South Korea, Germany, and the Middle East make the U.S. a force to be reckoned with in all key regions of the world. Chip away at that, and others will try to fill the gap.

Raise the cost to allies and watch how fast taxpayers in these countries push for the Americans to leave. You might not think that's in their interest, but many of them may well think otherwise.

The U.S. benefits economically, politically, and militarily from stability in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. That stability depends on the willingness of the only nation capable of projecting military power into every region to play a leadership role in keeping the peace.

The bottom line: If President Trump moves forward with this plan, the next important question might be equally simple: What happens if allies refuse to pay?

Trump's cash for troops plan has some logic, and big risks

It could soon be more expensive to be a U.S. ally

U.S. troops based in Germany ahead of NATO exercises in Hungary. Photo: Matej Divizna/Getty Images

NATO

Politics

Being a U.S. ally might soon get a lot more expensive. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="a plan" data-vars-click-url="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=7f3d706ea0&amp;e=51aaed0a65" data-vars-content-id="cf47beda-a7cc-4112-a910-bc3b5c85ed13" data-vars-headline="Trump&#x27;s cash for troops plan has some logic, and big risks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=7f3d706ea0&amp;e=51aaed0a65" target="_blank">a plan</a> that would force countries not only to pay for the full cost of hosting American troops in their territory, but also to pony up an additional 50% premium on that bill for the security that the U.S. soldiers provide. By the numbers: Under those terms, some countries will pay as much as <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="six times" data-vars-click-url="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=77bc2cd7e0&amp;e=51aaed0a65" data-vars-content-id="cf47beda-a7cc-4112-a910-bc3b5c85ed13" data-vars-headline="Trump&#x27;s cash for troops plan has some logic, and big risks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=77bc2cd7e0&amp;e=51aaed0a65" target="_blank">six times</a> the amount they currently pay. To put this in perspective, U.S. troops are stationed in more than <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="100 countries" data-vars-click-url="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=de8a3da96a&amp;e=51aaed0a65" data-vars-content-id="cf47beda-a7cc-4112-a910-bc3b5c85ed13" data-vars-headline="Trump&#x27;s cash for troops plan has some logic, and big risks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=de8a3da96a&amp;e=51aaed0a65" target="_blank">100 countries</a> around the world. There are 56,000 American soldiers in Japan, 35,000 in Germany, 28,500 in South Korea, 12,000 in Italy, and 9,000 in the U.K.

We’re now 5 years on from the mass protests on the Maidan, Kiev’s central square, where Ukrainians with widely diverging values and visions of their country’s future braved bullets to oust then-President Viktor Yanukovych, Moscow’s man in Kiev. 

Flashback: During weeks of demonstrations, more than 100 were killed and 2,500 injured in clashes with police. Yanukovych then fled to Moscow under cover of darkness, and Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Crimea. A continuing Kremlin-backed insurrection in two of Ukraine's eastern provinces has killed more than 10,000 people.

Five years later, what is the lasting impact of Maidan, known widely in Ukraine as the "Revolution of Dignity?"

Putin's military response to the demonstrations prevented an imminent move by Ukraine to more deeply integrate with European institutions. 

But Russian military aggression also made enemies of millions of Ukrainians, many of whom were ambivalent about their country's centuries-old relationship with Russia before Putin's land-grab in Crimea and the Russian-fueled separatist uprisings in the East.

Yet, despite European sympathy with the country's isolation, Ukraine's many internal problems have allowed little progress toward possible membership in the EU. 

Where things stand: With an election approaching next month, political infighting, corruption, and public cynicism run deep. The low-level conflict with Russia continues.

A poll conducted in December suggests a sharp division of opinion on what the Maidan protests were all about. 

52% of respondents said they have a positive view of the protests. Some 47% said demonstrators were angered by Yanukovych's bid to block Ukraine's integration into Europe, and 35% called it an opposition-led coup.

Finally, according to Amnesty International, justice for those killed in the Maidan by police and government snipers has not come.

The rights group says 288 individuals have been charged and gone to court. Just 52 cases have produced a verdict. Of 48 convictions, just nine people have been sentenced — and not one of those imprisoned is a former police officer.

What to watch: This is an election year in Ukraine, and voters will be looking for presidential and parliamentary candidates who can move the country beyond its chronic problems and current stalemate with Russia. Each candidate will face the question of how best to explain the lessons of Maidan and their importance for Ukraine’s future.

5 years on, Ukraine grapples with lessons of Maidan revolution

As the country prepares for presidential elections

A woman lights a candle in memory of slain protesters in February 2014. Photo: Monique Jaques/Corbis via Getty Images

Ukraine

We’re now 5 years on from the mass protests on the Maidan, Kiev’s central square, where Ukrainians with widely diverging values and visions of their country’s future braved bullets to oust then-President Viktor Yanukovych, Moscow’s man in Kiev. Flashback: During weeks of demonstrations, more than 100 were killed and 2,500 injured in clashes with police. Yanukovych then fled to Moscow under cover of darkness, and Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Crimea. A continuing Kremlin-backed insurrection in two of Ukraine&#x27;s eastern provinces has killed more than 10,000 people.

Sections

Axios Local

Axios gets you smarter, faster with news & information that matters.

About

Subscribe

Willis Sparks of GZERO Media

Stories

China's government still fears the message from Tiananmen Square

Waves of migration will only grow larger

Trump's cash for troops plan has some logic, and big risks

5 years on, Ukraine grapples with lessons of Maidan revolution

Europe's age of Aquarius