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Days before Donald Trump meets with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on July 16, the agenda for the summit remains unclear. Putin craves legitimacy that only Western recognition can grant him, and his greatest demands include the West's recognizing his annexation of Crimea and lifting sanctions.

Yes, but: Congress is bipartisan in its opposition to recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and it can also veto a rollback of Russia sanctions, no matter what Trump might promise in Helsinki. Thus if any deal comes out of the Trump-Putin summit, it's likely to be on Syria, where the West has had the least interest in opposing Putin’s intervention, and where Congress lacks similar leverage. 

National Security Adviser John Bolton reportedly discussed such a Syria deal on his trip to Moscow, with the aim of getting Iranian forces out of Syria, but in fact Putin has little to offer there. Moscow does have a reputation in the Middle East for being the only actor that can talk to virtually everyone, and Putin would like nothing more than to be seen as a peacemaker.

But in addition to having a poor record for keeping his word, Putin has no ability nor desire to genuinely restrain Iran. While Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in May that “all non-Syria forces” must leave southwest Syria, the withdrawal that followed was another deception, with Lavrov saying this month that it would be “completely unrealistic” to expect Iran to completely withdraw from Syria.

The bottom line: The summit may reshape U.S.–Russian relations, if Trump makes a deal to Putin’s benefit, or pass by without consequence, if Trump  makes no significant concessions and the summit ends with vague non-committal statements from both sides.

Anna Borshchevskaya is the Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

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Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad shaking hands and smiling

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in Sochi, Russia on May 17, 2018. Photo: Kremlin Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

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Days before Donald Trump meets with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on July 16, the agenda for the summit remains unclear. Putin craves legitimacy that only Western recognition can grant him, and his greatest demands include the West&#x27;s recognizing his annexation of Crimea and lifting sanctions.Yes, but: Congress is bipartisan in its opposition to recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and it can also <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="veto" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/02/politics/donald-trump-russia-sanctions-bill/index.html" data-vars-content-id="67ce8a06-f6f4-45e7-87f9-db25846696ab" data-vars-headline="Syria could be on Trump-Putin agenda, but options for a deal are slim" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/02/politics/donald-trump-russia-sanctions-bill/index.html" target="_blank">veto</a> a rollback of Russia sanctions, no matter what Trump might promise in Helsinki. Thus if any deal comes out of the Trump-Putin summit, it&#x27;s likely to be on Syria, where the West has had the least interest in opposing Putin’s intervention, and where Congress lacks similar leverage.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Israel’s strike on Syrian targets earlier this month, in response to an Iranian drone that launched from Syria and entered Israeli airspace, marked the most serious clash to date between Israel and Iran and its local proxies. It was also the latest example of Russia's interjection into the conflict. Indeed, discussion of further military action by Israel only ended after a call between President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Why it matters: As hostilities intensify in Syria, Russia is poised to expand its role in the region, portraying itself as a neutral broker to further the Kremlin’s   own interests.

In a statement, the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry urged “restraint on all sides,” stressing “unconditional respect” for the sovereignty of “Syria and other countries in the region.” It also called “absolutely unacceptable” any danger to Russian military personnel serving in Syria “upon the legitimate Syrian government’s invitation.” Notably, the statement did not acknowledge Israel’s legitimate reasons for resorting to strikes.

Moscow may be well-positioned to restrict, when necessary, the freedom of action of both sides. At the same time, it is doubtful that the Kremlin sees much interest in restraining Iran, Russia's main regional ally. Moscow has long favored the Shia axis in the region and supported Hezbollah. Theirs is a partnership of dictatorships that put  differences aside when faced with a common interest — in this case, opposition to the West.

What’s next: Putin will aim to restore Russia's status as a power-broker in the region, to the detriment of the U.S. and its allies.

Moscow exploiting Israeli-Syrian clashes for regional influence

Its gains will largely come at the expense of the U.S.

An Israeli missile that landed in a southern Lebanese town near the Syrian border on Feb. 10, 2018. Photo: Ali Dia / AFP / Getty Images

Expert voices

Israel’s strike on Syrian targets earlier this month, in response to an Iranian drone that launched from Syria and entered Israeli airspace, marked the most serious clash to date between Israel and Iran and its local proxies. It was also the latest example of Russia&#x27;s interjection into the conflict. Indeed, discussion of further military action by Israel only <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="ended" data-vars-click-url="https://url.emailprotection.link/?a8_UfzL8GJFlwo53RXipCwZ4LPSS985CO6Y7QnXbCVN2WTdlybe1lHbSNf6mtbUQVyPgn9_jUhD2b20I7ukSmGJk6oid4UZhl5solqspeE_-3PaqyDViqOc4KVOsohvbOi-nY6uD7Ry1ztw-eWiI9826hsgpLZppkTy7IHAyIORE~" data-vars-content-id="e6e5f6a3-4f14-44d3-96bd-ed6530910fbf" data-vars-headline="Moscow exploiting Israeli-Syrian clashes for regional influence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://url.emailprotection.link/?a8_UfzL8GJFlwo53RXipCwZ4LPSS985CO6Y7QnXbCVN2WTdlybe1lHbSNf6mtbUQVyPgn9_jUhD2b20I7ukSmGJk6oid4UZhl5solqspeE_-3PaqyDViqOc4KVOsohvbOi-nY6uD7Ry1ztw-eWiI9826hsgpLZppkTy7IHAyIORE~" target="_blank">ended</a> after a call between President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu.Why it matters: As hostilities intensify in Syria, Russia is poised to expand its role in the region, portraying itself as a neutral broker to further the Kremlin’s   own interests.

Anna Borshchevskaya

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Syria could be on Trump-Putin agenda, but options for a deal are slim

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