Israel’s strike on Syrian targets earlier this month, in response to an Iranian drone that launched from Syria and entered Israeli airspace, marked the most serious clash to date between Israel and Iran and its local proxies. It was also the latest example of Russia's interjection into the conflict. Indeed, discussion of further military action by Israel only ended after a call between President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Why it matters: As hostilities intensify in Syria, Russia is poised to expand its role in the region, portraying itself as a neutral broker to further the Kremlin’s own interests.
Appearing in court today, former Trump campaign aide Rick Gates pled guilty to one count of conspiracy against the United States and one count of making false statements to the FBI and to the Special Counsel at a meeting last month. In preparation for the guilty plea, Robert Mueller filed superseding criminal information earlier today which alleged Gates and Manafort laundered tens of millions of dollars that they earned through their work for the Ukrainian government.
Why it matters: Mueller now has the cooperation of a key player who worked closely with the Trump campaign, and stayed on the team even after Manafort resigned as campaign manager. Manafort released a statement today maintaining his innocence, but the pressure is at an all-time high now that his former partner is ready to talk.
What's next: Federal guidelines suggest Gates will face a sentence of 57 to 71 months, but these are only advisory and are subject to discretion, per Bloomberg. Gates' status hearing is for May 14, indicating the Mueller probe has no intention of winding down before then.
Just ahead of the annual "Two Meetings" in early March, the Communist Party's Central Committee (CPCC) may hold the Third Plenum — a move that would be unexpectedly earlier than normal in the year and could highlight Chinese President Xi Jinping's resolve to implement reforms.
The key decisions are rumored to be related to possible restructuring of the financial regulatory system as well as the replacement for Zhou Xiaochuan as head of the People's Bank of China. Reuters reports Xi confidant Liu He has emerged as a front runner to head China’s central bank.
The U.S. embassy will move to Jerusalem on May 14th — the day Israel declared its independence in 1948 and the day President Harry Truman recognized the state of Israel, Israeli officials told me. The White House isn't commenting, but a U.S. official confirmed the plans.
The bottom line: That's a lot sooner than expected. During his visit to Israel last month, Vice President Mike Pence said only that the embassy would move to Jerusalem by the end of 2019.
Rick Gates, Trump's former campaign advisor and Paul Manafort's business partner, is expected to plead guilty in the special counsel's Russia probe as soon as Friday afternoon, reports the New York Times.
Why it matters: "The plea deal could be a significant development in the investigation — a sign that Mr. Gates plans to offer incriminating information against his longtime associate and the former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, or other members of the Trump campaign in exchange for a lighter punishment." [NYT]
Billionaire casino magnate and prominent GOP donor Sheldon Adelson has offered to pay for some portion of the new U.S. embassy in Jerusalem, which could stretch into the hundreds of millions of dollars, according to an AP report. His offer comes as the State Department is reportedly researching the legal roadblocks surrounding funding the project via private donations.
Why it matters: The move would be highly irregular for an American diplomatic complex and raise significant questions surrounding conflicts of interest, especially given Adelson's extensive contributions in support of right-wing Israeli politics.
An uncomfortable pair of stories for the White House:
"Russia’s dirty tricks ... And why the West’s response is inadequate" — The Economist cover editorial
"A Russian oligarch [who was indicted by Mueller last week and is] believed to control the Russian mercenaries who attacked U.S. troops and their allies in Syria this month was in close touch with Kremlin ... in the days and weeks before and after the assault," according to the Washington Post.
Yevgeniy Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch who controls a mercenary force in Syria, was communicating with Syrian officials and the Kremlin "days and weeks before and after" an attack on U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces earlier this month, the Washington Post reports.
Why it matters: This could indicate that the Kremlin signed off on an attack against U.S. troops in Syria that left scores of Russians dead and threatens to raise military tensions to new heights. It also adds to the intrigue surrounding Prigozhin, a Putin ally who was indicted by Robert Mueller for operating the Russian "troll farm" that carried out online election interference.
Rick Gates had reportedly been working toward a plea deal with Robert Mueller, but the latest charges brought against him could kill any potential of a deal in the short term.
UPDATE: This article originally stated, based on a Daily Beast report, that Gates had fired his lawyer, Tom Green. However, ABC News and others have since reported that Gates has retained Green. It's unclear at this time what the future looks like for Gates' legal team.
Special Counsel Robert Mueller brought 32 new financial charges against former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his business associate Rick Gates on Thursday.
Why it matters: "The new charges intensify the legal pressure on Manafort and Gates as they prepare for trial later this year," the Washington Post says.
North Korea will send its head of national intelligence, General Kim Yong-chol, to the closing ceremony of the Winter Olympics, reports BBC News. Kim is the former head of North Korea's spy agency, which was accused of carrying out attacks that killed scores of South Koreans under his leadership.
Why it matters: There has been a remarkable thawing of relations between the two countries on display at the Olympics, but the U.S. has been wary of engaging in such diplomacy without signals Pyongyang will roll back its nuclear and missile programs. Ivanka Trump will lead the U.S. delegation, but officials say there is no formal meeting planned between her and the North Korean party.
Liu He is coming to D.C. next week, sometime between Feb. 27 and March 2, my sources tell me. His trip will follow the early February visit of Politburo member and top diplomat Yang Jiechi — whose visit was not seen as successful by either side.
Why it matters: Beijing will now have sent two Politburo-level emissaries in the last several weeks to try to re-engage with the U.S., and to get a clear message on exactly what the Trump Administration wants. Beijing is looking to restart the Comprehensive Economic Dialogue but so far the Trump administration has not agreed.
On the itinerary this week at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), along with President Trump and 12 senior members of his administration, are two controversial populists from across the pond. Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, the 28-year-old former French MP, will speak shortly after Vice President Pence on Thursday morning, while former U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage will close out Friday's session.
Why it matters: Both Maréchal-Le Pen and Farage are treated as fringe figures by leaders in their respective countries, so the decision to grant them prime slots at America's leading conservative conference is sure to raise some eyebrows — especially when more moderate European conservative voices weren't extended an invitation.
