topics

politics-policy

epstein-files

donald-trump

2026-midterm-elections

immigration

behind-the-curtain

race-and-equity

technology

privacy-tech-regulation

automation-and-ai

tiktok-news

big-tech

social-media

cybersecurity

economy

social-security

inflation

tariffs

federal-reserve

jobs

transportation

business

stock-market-news

retail-news

crypto

media

elon-musk

dealmaking

health

rfk-jr

drug-prices

axios-explains-abortion

public-health

world

israel

axios-explains-ukraine

iran

russia

china

energy-climate

nuclear-energy

climate-energy-policy

climate-change

extreme-weather

alternative-energy

electric-vehicles

science

emerging-tech

biomedicine

newsletters

pittsburgh

atlanta

san-diego

charlotte

boulder

washington-dc

kansas-city

dallas

denver

detroit

des-moines

austin

boston

chicago

cleveland

columbus

houston

indianapolis

miami

nashville

new-orleans

nw-arkansas

philadelphia

phoenix

portland

richmond

salt-lake-city

san-antonio

san-francisco

seattle

tampa-bay

twin-cities

raleigh

huntsville

colorado-springs

axios-local

axios-pro

axios-live

the-axios-show

National

One of the biggest immediate consequences if Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket in 2024: Republicans may campaign aggressively in fewer Senate battleground races.

Driving the news: In an interview with CNN last week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was cautious about the number of top GOP pickup opportunities — despite a historically favorable map giving the party a strong chance of ending Democrats' 51–49 majority.

“I just spent 10 minutes explaining to you how we could screw this up, and we’re working very hard to not let that happen. Let’s put it that way," McConnell said.

He only listed four Democratic-held seats as top opportunities: West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Why it matters: If Trump's endorsements of weak candidates hurt GOP prospects in 2022, it's the prospect that Trump will lead the GOP presidential ticket that could jeopardize purple-state opportunities in 2024.

Democratic-held Senate seats in Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada would typically be toss-ups with a less Trumpified GOP, with Maine, Virginia and New Mexico representing second-tier opportunities.

But McConnell only mentioned Wisconsin and Nevada as other races he's keeping an eye on.

Between the lines: Arizona is a wild card, given the possibility of a three-way contest among Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and the GOP nominee.

McConnell told CNN there’s a “high likelihood” that Republican leaders would wait to see who wins the GOP primary before deciding whether to support the nominee.

Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who still claims her election was stolen, met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee last week. Republicans familiar with the meeting expect her to run.

Despite the Democratic divisions, one recent public poll showed Gallego leading Lake and Sinema in a three-way race.

Reality check: Trump is still a political asset in the three red-state seats held by Democrats up for re-election — West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. Winning just two of those three is all Republicans need to win back the majority.

Manchin already starts out in precarious shape against Gov. Jim Justice (R-W.V.) and is hinting he's considering a third-party presidential campaign.

Zoom out: Trump's chaotic town hall on CNN this week, where he continued to deny the outcome of the 2020 election, promised pardons to many of the Jan. 6 rioters, and failed to offer support for Ukraine, is perfect fodder to use against purple-state GOP candidates — if Trump leads the ticket.

It also threatens to dampen recruiting among non-MAGA candidates. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), the respected chair of the House China select committee, would be an A-list recruit against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), but he may not be eager to get pulled into messy intra-GOP politics.

One big bellwether: businessman David McCormick, a mainstream Republican who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate in 2022 after drawing Trump's ire.

McCormick is expected to jump into the Senate race against Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) late in the summer, according to sources, but hasn't fully formalized plans.

The bottom line: In 2022, all but one Senate race went the same way as the outcome of the 2020 presidential race in the state. If that dynamic holds, Republicans would net three seats and have a 52–48 majority.

But winning the three Trump states won't be automatic. Not a single Senate incumbent lost re-election in 2022, and Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) are already preparing for tough races ahead.

The GOP's shrinking Senate map

Trump leading the GOP ticket could jeopardize purple-state opportunities in 2024.

Senate Republicans

Politics & Policy

Planned Parenthood is calling for the major reform of the federal judiciary less than a year after the fall of Roe v. Wade, including expanding the Supreme Court and adding term limits. 

Driving the news: The organization is also demanding an end to single-judge divisions, such as the Amarillo division in the Northern Texas District Court, where its sole judge, Matthew Kacsmaryk, issued a ruling halting the Food and Drug Administration's approval of a widely used abortion pill.

Single-judge divisions can lead to "court-shopping," in which plaintiffs seek out a venue where the lone district court judge is known to be sympathetic to their claims. 

Don't forget: Kacsmaryk's ruling has been temporarily blocked by the Supreme Court, but the 5th Circuit Court if Appeals is scheduled to hear oral arguments on Wednesday.

The three-judge panel that will hear the case is comprised of two Trump appointees and one Bush appointee, all of which have an anti-abortion history.

The big picture: The overturning of Roe, as well as reports around Justice Clarence Thomas' alleged ties to a GOP megadonor, have prompted some Democrats in Congress to push for justice term limits and a code of conduct for the highest bench.

The Supreme Court is the only court in the federal judiciary that does not have a formal code of ethics.

State of play: Planned Parenthood for the first time is calling for Congress to add seats and impose term limits for the justices, as well as create ethics and transparency requirements.

Justices are not "forced to follow a binding code of conduct," and they argue that as a result, "there are no clear consequences for most unethical behavior," Planned Parenthood argues.

They're also urging Congress to increase the number of lower court seats to keep up with the growing U.S. population and caseload.

"Ongoing threats to reproductive freedom, civil rights, and our democratic systems and institutional norms" prompted the organization to issue the calls now, per a press release.

Between the lines: Planned Parenthood has been active in litigation challenging state abortion bans and other women's health matters like the federal Title X family planning program. 

What they're saying: “[T]he courts have been used as a vehicle to advance a dangerous agenda against abortion rights, voting rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and so much more," said Alexis McGill Johnson, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Federation of America. 

Planned Parenthood "understands that reforms are integral to building the public’s trust that the courts can and will function to uphold hard-won freedoms and advance justice for future generations," Johnson added.

Scoop: Planned Parenthood calls for major judicial reform

Planned Parenthood's calls for judicial reform come as a federal court is set to hear a case on abortion pills this week.

Picture of a hand holding a pink sign that says "I stand with Planned Parenthood" in an abortion rights protest happening in front of the U.S. Supreme Court

Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Abortion

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Tropical Cyclone Mocha struck the coast of Myanmar on Sunday morning as a potentially devastating Category 4 storm.

Threat level: The storm contained maximum sustained winds of 155 mph as it moved ashore just north of Sittwe, Myanmar, though its winds have since weakened. This put it just shy of Category 5 intensity. 

Social media images shared on Twitter and Telegram showed high winds shredding homes and storm surge flooding moving inland in Sittwe, as well as high winds and heavy rain in areas of southeastern Bangladesh. 

Given the low-lying land in this area of Myanmar as well as neighboring southeastern Bangladesh, it is likely that storm surge waters will push well inland, potentially dozens of miles.

As the storm moves inland and its winds slacken, flooding and mudslide threats from torrential rains will increase, as the storm could dump up to 2 feet of rain in just 24 to 36 hours. 

Of note: At its peak intensity Saturday night and into early Sunday morning eastern time, Cyclone Mocha contained 175 mph maximum sustained winds, putting it at number two on the list of all-time strongest storms in the Bay of Bengal. 

Context: Past cyclones in the Bay of Bengal have killed tens of thousands of people by flooding heavily populated, low-lying areas. 

However, Bangladesh has improved its storm early-warning programs in recent years.

With a repressive military government and continued unrest, Myanmar is more of a wild card in its preparations for such a powerful storm.

The big picture: The UN expressed grave concern for the already vulnerable refugee and IDP populations living in low-lying areas in the storm's path.

Evacuations were underway prior to the storm's landfall in parts of coastal Myanmar and Bangladesh, while the UN and its partners, including international aid organizations were working to prepare refugee and IDP camps for the storm's impact.

About 6 million people across Myanmar's Rakhine state and the country's northwest are already in need of humanitarian assistance, per OCHA. There are more than 230,000 internally displaced people in Rakhine state. 

Tom Andrews, the UN’s special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, tweeted Friday that he was “terrified at the triple whammy threatening millions in the path of Cyclone Mocha: mass displacement driven by Myanmar military attacks; a humanitarian crisis exacerbated by world indifference; the extreme vulnerability of those stuck in flimsy shelters in flood prone areas.”

Cox’s Bazar in southeast Bangladesh is home to about 1 million Rohingya refugees who fled their homes in Myanmar after the country's military in 2017 intensified a bloody campaign against the mostly Muslim ethnic group. They now live in sprawling refugee camps. 

Ahead of the storm, the International Organization for Migration said it was "strengthening camp infrastructure, preparing for medical emergencies, and supporting volunteers in cyclone preparedness."

At the same time, the UN refugee agency in Bangladesh said it was working with government officials and humanitarian groups to set up shelters on Bhasan Char, an island off the coast where the Bangladeshi government has sent some 30,000 Rohingya refugees in recent years.

Climate change and the storm's rapid intensification

Cyclone Mocha's bursts of rapid intensification stand out in the region's storm history. 

The storm's intensification rate puts Cyclone Mocha in the top 1% of past Bay of Bengal storms, according to meteorologist Kieran Bhatia. 

Its maximum sustained winds climbed by about 90 mph in 48 hours, Bhatia said via Twitter.

Conditions were ideal for rapid intensification to occur, with light winds aloft, a humid air mass surrounding the storm and an abundant supply of warm ocean temperatures extending well beneath the sea surface.

The intrigue: Climate change has been linked to an increase in both the occurrence and rate of rapidly intensifying storms in many ocean basins. 

Studies show this may be due to increasing ocean and air temperatures, and the greater availability of atmospheric water vapor, all of which are climate change-linked trends. 

For example, a 2020 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that tropical cyclones are more likely to reach higher categories across much of the globe.

Yes but: A detailed study of climate change's possible role in Cyclone Mocha's intensification would need to be completed in order to make more definitive conclusions.

This story has been updated throughout to reflect the storm's landfall and peak intensity.

contained 173 mph maximum sustained winds

Powerful Cyclone Mocha strikes Myanmar, Bangladesh

The storm intensified so quickly that it outranks all but a few other storms in the region's history.

Satellite view of Tropical Cyclone Mocha shortly before it made landfall in Myanmar on Sunday May 14. 

Infrared satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Mocha on Sunday morning before landfall in Myanmar. Image: CIRA/RAMMB

hurricanes

Extreme weather

Climate change

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

Science

Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Mother's Day breakfast spread is more expensive than last year — even as falling grocery prices bring some relief from inflation.

The big picture: Eggs, bacon and coffee prices have all dropped from their record highs, but food prices are still up 7.7% in the 12 months through April, according to the latest Consumer Price Index.

The U.S. national average for a dozen large eggs in April was $3.27, down from a record high in January of $4.823, federal data shows. With the recent decline, prices were still up 21.4% year-over-year, the CPI showed.

Orange juice and white bread have both continued to increase and are at record highs, data shows.

An Axios analysis of a basket of breakfast foods (charted above) using federal pricing data found only bacon cost less in April than a year earlier.

A pound of bacon was 87 cents cheaper in April at $6.549 compared to $7.422 a year earlier.

What's happening: Some prices are dropping because the "supply disruption of labor has largely fixed itself with the return of more workers," Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute told Axios.

Other prices like bread and cereals are rising because of demand for key ingredients like grains as well as the cost of packaging, said Curt Covington, senior director of institutional business at AgAmerica.

An outbreak of avian influenza prompted the worst surge in egg prices since a similar outbreak hit in 1973.

"Egg prices at a wholesale level are back to within a historic price range and are very affordable once again," Kevin Bergquist, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute sector manager, told Axios. "That being said, grocers may not have passed along the lower prices just yet."

Covington said he expects egg prices to drop soon at the retail level since we are past the Easter holiday.

Those serving pancakes, cereal, toast and bakery treats to mom face double-digit increases over last year.

By the numbers: White bread is up 14.3% in the year through April and cost an average of $1.989 per pound in April, a record high.

Flour and prepared flour mixes were up 17.8% in the 12 months through April, but were down 1.3% from the prior month.

Breakfast cereal was up 10% in the year through April and up 0.1% from March.

Fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins were up 12.9% for the year and 1.4% from March.

What's next: Experts tell Axios that they expect prices to keep dropping for some items.

"The supplies and the bottlenecks that came with all the logistical issues from COVID are starting to kind of wane a bit," Covington said, "so I think you'll probably see some core prices become more attractive this summer."

Of note: If you're taking mom out, be prepared for higher costs, crowds and long waits on one of the busiest days of the year to eat out, according to the National Restaurant Association.

Costs for food away from home, including at restaurants, are up 8.6% year-over-year and rose 0.4% compared to the prior month.

Brands allow customers to opt out of Mother's Day marketing

Women should start getting mammograms at 40 not 50, health panel says

Your Mother's Day breakfast costs more this year

Eggs, coffee and bacon prices are dropping but food costs are still more than last year.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

The GOP's shrinking Senate map

Scoop: Planned Parenthood calls for major judicial reform

Powerful Cyclone Mocha strikes Myanmar, Bangladesh

Your Mother's Day breakfast costs more this year

America's five-year sports betting cash chase

Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza agree to cease-fire

Ex-ByteDance exec claims CCP "maintained" access to U.S. data

Scoop: VP Harris quietly convenes abortion allies for 2024

Why inflation is hard to whip

Mother's Day spending increases nearly $4 billion

America's surprise revival: The suburbs

Charted: The spotted lanternfly returns