1 big thing: Dogma-defying biology

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2. Part II: What's new

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3. Data from satellites is starting to spur climate action

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4. Worthy of your time

5. Something wondrous

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Thanks for reading Axios Science. This week's newsletter — about a basic key component of biology that wasn't in any of my textbooks — is 1,569 words, about a 6-minute read.

Send your feedback and ideas to me at alison@axios.com.

Big thanks to Laurin-Whitney for contributing to the newsletter, to Annelise Capossela on the Axios Visuals team for this week's illustration, and to Patricia Guadalupe for copy editing this edition.  

Science

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Gather the facts on the latest scientific advances

Axios Science

National

Data: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project; Map: Axios Visuals

After failing in his initial goal of quickly taking Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be placing his new bet on winning a war of attrition, experts say. 

The big picture: It's a wager that's unlikely to bring an end to the war anytime soon. Instead, it's expected to significantly add to the tens of thousands killed, millions displaced and billions spent in the war's first year. 

State of play: "The word that describes where we're at [right now] is 'stalemate,'" says Dale Buckner, a retired Army Colonel and the current CEO of the international security firm Global Guardian. 

"Since last fall, when the Ukrainians' counterattacked and took large swaths of terrain back," neither side has "had a large or real tactical victory," Buckner tells Axios. "Everybody's bunkered down in relatively defensive positions."

Still, with the help of private mercenaries, Russia has seen some — albeit small — success in the eastern Donbas region this winter. Russia's focus currently appears to remain on Bakhmut, where a monthslong brutal fight has resembled a "battle of attrition" with heavy losses on both sides, Buckner says. 

If captured, Bakhmut would represent a symbolic victory and could foreshadow what a larger war of attrition may look like in the months to come. 

A Ukrainian soldiers stands next to a firing tank. 

A Ukrainian soldier of an artillery unit fires towards Russian positions outside Bakhmut on Nov. 8, 2022. Photo: BULENT KILIC/AFP via Getty Images

The big question: What might Russia's expected spring offensive look like and will the Ukrainians have the weaponry to mount a strong counteroffensive?

Some, including NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, say Russia's offensive has already begun. If that is the case, there are already signs it isn't going well. 

Inside Russia, Putin has for months been preparing Russians for what he admits will be "a long process." 

That was especially apparent in his speech on Tuesday when analysts say he attempted to "normalize" the wartime economic situation many Russians find themselves in as the conflict drags on. 

Russians too are increasingly recognizing that the war will take longer than initially expected, says Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, Russia's top independent pollster. 

The number of Russians who say the war will go on for another year more than doubled from about 21% in May to 43% in the latest survey in January. 

President Biden walks next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as he arrives for a visit in Kyiv. Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images

Ukrainians are also preparing to be at war for a while, according to recent polling.

In a survey conducted in November, the vast majority of Ukrainians said the only acceptable terms of a ceasefire include the withdrawal of Russian troops from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is racing to ensure his military is prepared for a long war. After securing commitments for American Abrams and German Leopard tanks, he's upped the pressure for longer-range missiles and Western fighter jets, including F16s.

The answer on F16s has so far been "no," but Biden did declare from Kyiv this week that the U.S. is ready to stand with and help support Ukraine for "as long as it takes." 

It's unclear, however, what exactly that will look like and how realistic it will be as the war drags on. 

Amid pressure, the U.S. and its European allies have slowly but steadily increased the level of advanced weapons they've provided. But at the same time, small cracks in the effort have started to appear, especially in supply chains.  

What to watch: Stoltenberg warned last week that a "war of attrition is a battle of logistics." 

It is about "supplies, ammunitions, including to ensure that the air defense systems are working as they should," he said.

The bottom line: Without any serious signs of a diplomatic end to the war in the near future, a war of attrition is only set to up the costs. 

"With this tit for tat and civilians being caught in the middle as they have been from the very beginning is how this continues," Buckner warns. 

Preparing for Putin's long war

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia

Ukraine

After failing in his initial goal of quickly taking Kyiv, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Russian President Vladimir Putin" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/22/russia-putin-miscalculations-invasion-ukraine" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/22/russia-putin-miscalculations-invasion-ukraine" target="_self">Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> appears to be placing his new bet on winning a war of attrition, experts say. The big picture: It&#x27;s a wager that&#x27;s unlikely to bring an end to the war anytime soon. Instead, it&#x27;s expected to significantly add to the tens of thousands killed, millions displaced and billions spent in the war&#x27;s first year.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

A year of relentless Russian bombing, air raid sirens and displacement is taking a heavy toll on Ukrainians' mental health. 

The big picture: The World Health Organization estimates that nearly 10 million Ukrainians may be suffering from mental health conditions like depression or anxiety, of whom almost 4 million may have cases that are moderate or severe. 

The scale of the crisis, however, is likely much bigger, says Alisa Ladyk-Bryzghalova, the mental health program lead at WHO Ukraine. 

The estimates don't take into account the number of people who might not meet the criteria for a diagnosis but are still experiencing new daily stresses and distress that come with living in times of war, Ladyk-Bryzghalova tells Axios. 

A survey published by Ukraine's Ministry of Health in October found that more than 70% of people polled said they were very stressed or nervous. 

Zoom in: The impact of the invasion on Ukrainian children's mental health is especially acute. 

The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) estimates that 1.5 million children in Ukraine are at risk of depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder and other mental health conditions. 

About 55% of 2,000 Ukrainian mothers surveyed between Jan. 27–Feb. 1 reported that their children were at least somewhat bothered by loud sounds in the previous month, according to the survey by the U.S.-based Ukraine Children's Action Project released Thursday. Around 41% reported their kids were irritable or apathetic. 

Beyond the direct trauma of war, children are also experiencing the "additional trauma" of a disruption to their lives, including to their education and their daily routines, says Karen Redlener, co-founder of UCAP. 

What's happening: The sheer scope of mental health needs makes responding to the crisis challenging, says Ladyk-Bryzghalova. 

It's a challenge that government agencies, local groups, global aid organizations and Ukrainian health workers alike are attempting to address as the war grinds on. 

With the support of the WHO, Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska and Ukraine's health ministry have spearheaded new initiatives to bolster mental health support during the war and well after it ends. 

That includes working to integrate mental health services into the country's primary health care system to reach the most people. 

BetterMe, a Kyiv-headquartered health app publisher, opened free access to BetterMe: Mental Health and BetterMe:Health Coaching for Ukrainians when the invasion began.  

The "apps contain information that is relevant for wartime, such as advice about psychological assistance for children, diet in war conditions, etc.," BetterMe CEO and founder Victoria Repa told Axios in an email. 

Repa says digital tools have become especially important as the hostilities make it hard for some to find specialists for help. 

Meanwhile, Ukrainian health care workers like Oleksandra Besedina say they're finding a sense of purpose helping address mental health needs. 

Besedina is a psychotherapist who fled to Romania in the initial days of the invasion but returned to her home city of Odesa in September. She now works with Project HOPE to provide mental health services to internally displaced children and adults. 

Besedina tells Axios that during programming last Christmas, she got a feeling of optimism seeing smiles on the faces of children who had spent two months in a dark basement in Kherson as fighting took place outside. 

At the same, however, the uncertainty that comes with a year of war has brought on new stresses, Besedina explains. 

"For all of us, the hardest is not understanding when the war will be over," she says. "I'm sure that the impact the war might have on our lives — on [our] mental health — is going to last generations."

Go deeper: Ukraine's health care infrastructure withstands a year of destruction

The silent toll of war: Ukraine's growing mental health crisis

A year of relentless Russian bombing, air raid sirens and displacement is taking a heavy toll on Ukrainians' mental health.

A mother of a fallen soldier cries while standing near her son's coffin in the Saints Peter and Paul Garrison Church during a funeral ceremony on December 26, 2022 in Lviv, Ukraine. 

A mother of a fallen soldier cries during a funeral ceremony on Dec. 26, 2022 in Lviv, Ukraine. Photo: Stanislav Ivanov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

A year of relentless <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Russian bombing" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/22/russia-putin-miscalculations-invasion-ukraine" data-vars-content-id="3a5e9e56-6c6d-49b7-86da-ec3cf80a7d67" data-vars-headline="The silent toll of war: Ukraine&#x27;s growing mental health crisis" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/22/russia-putin-miscalculations-invasion-ukraine" target="_self">Russian bombing</a>, air raid sirens and displacement is taking a heavy toll on Ukrainians&#x27; mental health. The big picture: The World Health Organization <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="estimates" data-vars-click-url="https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/16-02-2023-amid-a-year-of-relentless-war--who-regional-director-for-europe-strengthens-commitment-for-mental-health-services-during-visit-to-ukraine" data-vars-content-id="3a5e9e56-6c6d-49b7-86da-ec3cf80a7d67" data-vars-headline="The silent toll of war: Ukraine&#x27;s growing mental health crisis" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/16-02-2023-amid-a-year-of-relentless-war--who-regional-director-for-europe-strengthens-commitment-for-mental-health-services-during-visit-to-ukraine" target="_blank">estimates</a> that nearly 10 million Ukrainians may be suffering from mental health conditions like depression or anxiety, of whom almost 4 million may have cases that are moderate or severe.

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Data: Memo; Table: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

One year in, attention to stories around the war in Ukraine has mostly flatlined in the U.S., suggesting Americans are no longer gripped by the storylines that shocked them at the war's outset last February. 

Why it matters: The interest from Americans mirrors the progress on the ground in Ukraine, where Russian forces continue to bombard the eastern part of the country, but to no clear end. 

Details: Interest in the war spiked last March when it became clear that Russia's offensive would have a major impact on geopolitics and the global economy.

At the beginning of April, the horrors of the war began to be truly exposed, most notably in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, where mass graves and the bodies of civilians strewn in the streets were found after Russian forces retreated. 

State of play: Since then, major shifts in the war caused minor surges in U.S. traffic to news stories, according to data from Memo, a media monitoring platform. 

In May, the evacuation of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol drove incremental spikes in interest in stories about the war. 

In September, the start of Russian mobilization efforts and the announcement that Russia would annex four regions in eastern Ukraine also drove a spike in attention to the war. 

Be smart: Similar news consumption patterns can be observed on other channels. 

Social media interactions with stories about the war plummeted after September and have remained relatively low, with the exception of a small spike in the past week around one-year anniversary stories about the war, per social media analysis company NewsWhip. 

On television, networks have remained committed to covering the war, but they've run into viewer fatigue. 

What to watch: Military analysts are bracing for a potential spring offensive by Russian forces, which could prompt more attention to the war again. 

Americans grow numb as war in Ukraine drags on past 1-year mark

A potential spring offensive by the Russians  could prompt more attention to the war again.

Media trends

Media

One year in, attention to stories around the war in <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Ukraine" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/world/axios-explains-ukraine" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/world/axios-explains-ukraine" target="_self">Ukraine</a> has mostly flatlined in the U.S., suggesting Americans are no longer gripped by the storylines that shocked them at the war&#x27;s outset last February. Why it matters: The interest from Americans <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="mirrors the progress" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/24/putin-long-war-ukraine-invasion-next-steps-end" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/24/putin-long-war-ukraine-invasion-next-steps-end" target="_self">mirrors the progress</a> on the ground in Ukraine, where Russian forces continue to bombard the eastern part of the country, but to no clear end.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

The Biden administration has determined war crimes have been committed by all sides in the deadly conflict in northern Ethiopia's Tigray and neighboring regions, Secretary of State Tony Blinken said on Monday. 

The big picture: Ethiopia's government and Tigray forces agreed last November to end the fighting in the two-year war that led to one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Humanitarian groups are now getting aid into Tigray, which faced what the UN called a de facto aid blockade throughout much of the conflict.

Researchers at Belgium’s Ghent University estimate the death toll may be as many as high as half a million people, with many dying from hunger, disease or lack of medical attention due to the conflict. Millions have also been displaced, per UN figures. 

Blinken on Monday noted the end to the fighting and the arrival of aid into Tigray, but said "the suffering that was wrought upon civilians in northern Ethiopia must be acknowledged."

Details: After "careful review," Blinken said he determined that members of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces and Amhara forces committed war crimes during the conflict. 

Blinken accused the ENDF, EDF and Amhara forces of committing crimes against humanity, including murder, rape and other forms of sexual violence, and persecution. 

The Amhara forces also committed "the crime against humanity of deportation or forcible transfer and committed ethnic cleansing in western Tigray," he added. 

The parties detailed in the U.S. determination, which echoes similar conclusions made by the UN and human rights groups, did not immediately comment on Blinken's remarks. They've previously denied committing human rights abuses, per Reuters. 

What they're saying: "The conflict in northern Ethiopia was devastating.  Men, women, and children were killed.  Women and girls were subject to horrific forms of sexual violence.  Thousands were forcibly displaced from their homes," Blinken, who visited Ethiopia last week, told reporters on Monday. 

"Entire communities were specifically targeted based on their ethnicity," he said. "Many of these actions were not random or a mere byproduct of war.  They were calculated and deliberate."

What to watch: Blinken called on leaders to hold those responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Ethiopia accountable. 

"We urge all parties to follow through on their commitments to one another and implement a credible, inclusive, and comprehensive transitional justice process," Blinken said, pointing to the peace agreement signed in November 2022. 

"We additionally call on the government of Eritrea to ensure comprehensive justice and accountability for those responsible for abuses in Ethiopia," he added. 

"Formally recognizing the atrocities committed by all parties is an essential step to achieving a sustainable peace."

U.S. says war crimes committed by all sides of Ethiopia's Tigray conflict

"The conflict in northern Ethiopia was devastating."

A World Food Program truck, carrying grains from the World Food Program to Tigray, burns out on a route nearly 50 miles from Semera, Ethiopia, on June 10, 2022. Photo: Eduardo Soteras/AFP via Getty Images

Ethiopia

The Biden administration has determined war crimes have been committed by all sides in the deadly conflict in northern <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Ethiopia&#x27;s Tigray and neighboring regions" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/20/tigray-war-ethiopia-tedros-genocide-warning" data-vars-content-id="bdc4fd44-4c4c-4ee4-85c2-d3f5840eff7e" data-vars-headline="U.S. says war crimes committed by all sides of Ethiopia&#x27;s Tigray conflict" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/20/tigray-war-ethiopia-tedros-genocide-warning" target="_self">Ethiopia&#x27;s Tigray and neighboring regions</a>, Secretary of State Tony Blinken <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="said" data-vars-click-url="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-on-the-2022-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/#:~:text=The%20conflict%20in%20northern%20Ethiopia,forcibly%20displaced%20from%20their%20homes." data-vars-content-id="bdc4fd44-4c4c-4ee4-85c2-d3f5840eff7e" data-vars-headline="U.S. says war crimes committed by all sides of Ethiopia&#x27;s Tigray conflict" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-on-the-2022-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/#:~:text=The%20conflict%20in%20northern%20Ethiopia,forcibly%20displaced%20from%20their%20homes." target="_blank">said</a> on Monday. The big picture: Ethiopia&#x27;s government and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Tigray forces agreed" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/02/ethiopia-tigray-forces-agree-end-war-african-union" data-vars-content-id="bdc4fd44-4c4c-4ee4-85c2-d3f5840eff7e" data-vars-headline="U.S. says war crimes committed by all sides of Ethiopia&#x27;s Tigray conflict" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/02/ethiopia-tigray-forces-agree-end-war-african-union" target="_self">Tigray forces agreed</a> last November to end the fighting in the two-year war that led to one of the world&#x27;s worst humanitarian crises. Humanitarian groups are now getting aid into Tigray, which faced what the UN called a de facto aid blockade throughout much of the conflict.

An estimated 43,000 people, half of them children under the age of 5, died last year due to prolonged drought in Somalia, a report released Monday by the UN and Somali government estimates. 

Driving the news: The Horn of Africa, which includes much of Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, is experiencing the worst drought in 40 years. The region faces a sixth straight rainy season this year. 

Drought and other factors, including conflict and political instability, have displaced millions across the region. 

In Somalia alone, about 7.9 million people — nearly half the population — are in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the UN.

The big picture: More people were estimated to have died last year than in the first year of the 2017-2018 drought crisis, according to Monday's report, which was released by the UN children's agency, World Health Organization and the Somali government and put together by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. 

The report projects at least 135 people will die each day in Somalia due to the drought crisis, with a total of 18,100 to 34,000 drought-related deaths in the first six months of this year. 

The multi-partner body, known as the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), that monitors global hunger said earlier this year that the food insecurity and acute malnutrition situation did not meet the threshold for an official famine declaration in the last three months of last year, but "the underlying crisis ... has not improved and even more appalling outcomes are only temporarily averted."

Humanitarian groups have long warned, however, that an official famine declaration will be too late. They point to the fact that half of nearly 260,000 deaths during the last famine occurred before it was officially declared in 2011. 

What they're saying: "We are racing against time to prevent deaths ... that are avoidable," WHO representative Mamunur Rahman Malik said in a statement about the new report.  

"We have seen deaths and diseases thrive when hunger and food crises prolong. We will see more people dying from disease than from hunger and malnutrition combined if we do not act now," Malik added. 

"The cost of our inaction will mean that children, women and other vulnerable people will pay with their lives while we hopelessly, helplessly, witness the tragedy unfold."

Somalia's Health Minister Ali Hadji Adam Abubakar said the government continues to be "concerned about the level and scale of the public health impact of this deepening and protracted food crisis in Somalia." 

But it is also "optimistic that if we can sustain our ongoing and scaled-up health and nutrition actions and humanitarian response to save lives and protect the health of our vulnerable, we can push back the risk of famine forever, else those vulnerable and marginalized will pay the price of this crisis with their lives." 

What to watch: Humanitarian groups and the UN warn the crisis is only set to get worse, as the country contends with climate change-induced extreme weather, political instability, ethnic tensions, rising global food prices, and insecurity.

The drought itself has its roots in a combination of human-induced global warming and La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes. 

Go deeper: Famine at Somalia's door — explained

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)

43,000 died last year due to drought in Somalia, report estimates

"We are racing against time to prevent deaths and save lives that are avoidable," the WHO said.

Rural herder Baar Omar, aged 42, stands by one of her dead goats on scorched land in a small village located 25km outside Doolow on October 17,2022 i

A rural herder stands by one of her dead goats on scorched land in a small village located outside Doolow, Somalia, on Oct. 17,2022. Photo: Giles Clarke/UNOCHA via Getty Images

Africa

An estimated 43,000 people, half of them children under the age of 5, died last year due to prolonged <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="drought in Somalia" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/05/famine-somalia-drought-humanitarian-crisis-hunger" data-vars-content-id="e834ee29-1b7f-4bf2-8fe6-ca907f52b68a" data-vars-headline="43,000 died last year due to drought in Somalia, report estimates" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/05/famine-somalia-drought-humanitarian-crisis-hunger" target="_self">drought in Somalia</a>, a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.emro.who.int/somalia/news/new-study-finds-that-43000-excess-deaths-may-have-occurred-in-2022-from-the-drought-in-somalia.html" data-vars-content-id="e834ee29-1b7f-4bf2-8fe6-ca907f52b68a" data-vars-headline="43,000 died last year due to drought in Somalia, report estimates" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.emro.who.int/somalia/news/new-study-finds-that-43000-excess-deaths-may-have-occurred-in-2022-from-the-drought-in-somalia.html" target="_blank">report</a> released Monday by the UN and Somali government estimates. Driving the news: The Horn of Africa, which includes much of Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, is experiencing the worst drought in 40 years. The region faces a sixth straight rainy season this year.

Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath

Stories

U.S. says war crimes committed by all sides of Ethiopia's Tigray conflict

43,000 died last year due to drought in Somalia, report estimates

Americans grow numb as war in Ukraine drags on past 1-year mark

The silent toll of war: Ukraine's growing mental health crisis

Preparing for Putin's long war

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