National

Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a signing ceremony Friday to formally annex four Moscow-occupied areas of Ukraine, the Kremlin said Thursday, following staged referendums in the regions that were widely condemned by Western governments as a "sham."

Why it matters: The expected annexation will dramatically raise the stakes in the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as Putin could attempt to portray any attack in the areas as an attack on Russia itself.

None of the four regions is entirely controlled by Russia. Ukraine accused Russia of coercing residents, some by gunpoint, into voting for annexation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously warned that annexation would spell the end of any diplomatic negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. 

Driving the news: Putin will give a speech on Friday announcing the regions will be absorbed by Russia, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov previously said the annexed areas would have Moscow's "full protection," a signal they could be brought under the nuclear umbrella.

Ukraine is currently conducting counterattacks in Kherson and elsewhere. Under Putin's formulation, Russia will now deem those battles to be taking place on Russian soil.

What they're saying: "Russia’s actions are transparently fraudulent and have no legal significance whatsoever.  We will never recognize these illegal and illegitimate attempts at annexation," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday. 

"Regardless of Russia’s claims, this remains Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine has every right to continue to fight for their full sovereignty," she added. 

What to watch: The White House also Wednesday vowed to "work with our allies and partners to impose additional economic costs on Russia and individuals and entities inside and outside of Russia that provide support to this action."

Russia to annex four occupied regions of Ukraine on Friday

The expected annexation will dramatically raise the stakes in the war.

Vladimir Putin. Photo: Ilya Pitalev/Sputnik via Getty Images

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Ukraine

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a signing ceremony Friday to formally annex four Moscow-occupied areas of Ukraine, the Kremlin said Thursday, following <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="staged referendums" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/28/russia-ukraine-referendum-sham-results-putin-un" data-vars-content-id="328cf2dd-be29-4100-9dd5-4edc7dd7f53e" data-vars-headline="Russia to annex four occupied regions of Ukraine on Friday" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/28/russia-ukraine-referendum-sham-results-putin-un" target="_self">staged referendums</a> in the regions that were widely condemned by Western governments as a &quot;sham.&quot;Why it matters: The expected annexation will dramatically raise the stakes in the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as Putin could attempt to portray any attack in the areas as an attack on Russia itself.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

At least 75 people, including children, fleeing Lebanon to Europe were killed when their boat sank off the Syrian coast this week, Lebanon's transportation minister said on Friday. 

The big picture: The incident marks one of the deadliest migrant sea tragedies for a boat leaving Lebanon in years. The country, which hosts a large number of Syrian and Palestinian refugees, continues to reel from an economic crisis that has pushed more than three-quarters of the population into poverty. 

The crisis has also caused more and more people in Lebanon to take perilous journeys in hopes of reaching Europe. 

"If I get the chance, I will leave. If there is a boat here right now, I will get on it with my two children," one man in Lebanon told Al Jazeera following this week's disaster. 

Driving the news: The boat, which was carrying Syrians, Lebanese and Palestinians, was heading to Europe when it sank earlier this week. 

It is unclear exactly how many people were on board, and Syrian officials fear the death toll could be much higher, per AP. Some survivors told reporters that the boat was carrying between 120-150 people.

Syrian state TV quoted Hassan Ghabbash, the country's health minister, as saying 20 people had been rescued, AP reports. 

What they're saying: “This is yet another heart-wrenching tragedy and we extend our deepest condolences to all those impacted,” Filippo Grandi, the UN high commissioner for refugees, said in a statement on Friday. 

“We call for full solidarity from the international community to help improve the conditions of forcibly displaced people and host communities in the Middle East, particularly in countries neighboring Syria. Too many people are being pushed to the brink.”

UNHCR, the International Organization for Migration and the UN Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) called on countries in the region to "increase efforts to build their capacity to provide search and rescue services and to work to ensure predictability in identifying safe places of disembarkation." 

The groups added, however, "is even more critical that action be taken to address the root causes of these movements and for the international community, in line with the principle of responsibility-sharing, to strengthen access to safer, alternative pathways to stop people resorting to dangerous journeys."

State of play: Lebanon has seen a surge of people leaving the country since its economic meltdown began in late 2019. 

The number of people who left or tried to leave by sea almost doubled in 2021 from the previous year, the UN refugee agency told Reuters in early September. 

Dozens were killed in April when a migrant boat from Lebanon sank off the coast of Tripoli following a confrontation with the Lebanese navy, per AP. 

Go deeper: Lebanon crisis having "grave consequences" for children's health, UNICEF warns

Over 70 people fleeing Lebanon die after boat sinks off Syrian coast

Ambulances wait for the arrival of Lebanese and Palestinian bodies who drowned when a boat carrying migrants sank off the Syrian coas

Ambulances at the Syrian-Lebanonese boder wait for the arrival of bodies who drowned when a boat carrying migrants sank off the Syrian coast. Photo: Marwan Naamani/picture alliance via Getty Images

Lebanon

At least 75 people, including children, fleeing Lebanon to Europe were killed when their <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="boat sank" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/04/29/un-refugees-asylum-europe-mediterranean-deaths" data-vars-content-id="7903db31-77df-46cb-aef9-6bd835a4eb76" data-vars-headline="Over 70 people fleeing Lebanon die after boat sinks off Syrian coast" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/04/29/un-refugees-asylum-europe-mediterranean-deaths" target="_self">boat sank</a> off the Syrian coast this week, Lebanon&#x27;s transportation minister <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="said" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/AJArabic/status/1573299381046059008" data-vars-content-id="7903db31-77df-46cb-aef9-6bd835a4eb76" data-vars-headline="Over 70 people fleeing Lebanon die after boat sinks off Syrian coast" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/AJArabic/status/1573299381046059008" target="_blank">said</a> on Friday. The big picture: The incident marks one of the deadliest migrant sea tragedies for a boat leaving Lebanon in years. The country, which hosts a large number of Syrian and Palestinian refugees, continues to reel from an economic crisis that has pushed more than three-quarters of the population into poverty.

Kicking off high-level week of the UN General Assembly, Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Tuesday the "world is in big trouble" as the international community remains "gridlocked in colossal global dysfunction" amid a cascade of humanitarian, security and political crises.

Why it matters: The war in Ukraine is expected to overshadow other new and protracted crises as world leaders meet at this year's UNGA. Guterres in his speech urged leaders to not lose sight of the fact that other "conflicts and humanitarian crises are spreading — often far from the spotlight."

What he's saying: "Divides are growing deeper. Inequalities are growing wider. Challenges are spreading farther," Guterres said.

From the deteriorating human rights situation in Myanmar to an unprecedented drought in the Horn of Africa to worsening security conditions in Haiti, Guterres listed major challenges nations are facing, saying: "We need action across the board. ... People are hurting — with the most vulnerable suffering the most."

"The divergence between developed and developing countries – between North and South — between the privileged and the rest — is becoming more dangerous by the day," Guterres said. "It is at the root of the geopolitical tensions and lack of trust that poison every area of global cooperation, from vaccines to sanctions to trade."

Guterres called for global cooperation, saying that despite the challenges, he sees hope. "By acting as one, we can nurture fragile shoots of hope."

"Let’s develop common solutions to common problems — grounded in goodwill, trust, and the rights shared by every human being. Let’s work as one, as a coalition of the world, as united nations."

Go deeper: What to watch for at the UN General Assembly

UN chief: The "world is in big trouble"

"We are gridlocked in colossal global dysfunction," Secretary-General António Guterres said.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Photo: Yuki Iwamura/AFP via Getty Images

United Nations General Assembly

Afghanistan

Kicking off high-level week of the UN General Assembly, Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Tuesday the &quot;world is in big trouble&quot; as the international community remains &quot;gridlocked in colossal global dysfunction&quot; amid a cascade of humanitarian, security and political crises.Why it matters: The war in Ukraine is expected to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="overshadow other new and protracted crises" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/20/ukraine-unga-world-crises" data-vars-content-id="a1b5b617-230c-43ad-858b-8e967146073d" data-vars-headline="UN chief: The &quot;world is in big trouble&quot;" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/20/ukraine-unga-world-crises" target="_self">overshadow other new and protracted crises</a> as world leaders meet at this year&#x27;s UNGA. Guterres in his speech urged leaders to not lose sight of the fact that other &quot;conflicts and humanitarian crises are spreading — often far from the spotlight.&quot;

The United Nations put out a dire warning earlier this week: famine is "at the door in Somalia." 

Driving the news: Famine is expected in parts of southern Somalia between October and December unless urgent assistance gets to those most in need, the UN said. Humanitarian groups are urging the international community to act now, saying waiting for a formal famine declaration will be too late. 

As Somalia prepares to cope with its second famine in just over a decade, here's a look at what famine is and why formal declarations are rare: 

Since 2004, famine has been scientifically defined under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system.

Famine at phase 5 is the highest on the scale and is defined "as an extreme deprivation of food."

A famine is classified under the IPC system when: 

At least 20% of an area's households are facing an extreme lack of food; 

30% of children are suffering from acute malnutrition; and 

Two people out of every 10,000 are dying every day due to starvation or the combination of malnutrition and disease.

Once the IPC country working group classifies a famine, it's up to relevant stakeholders (usually the UN in coordination with a country's government) to make a formal declaration. 

Such classifications and declarations are often rare due to challenges in obtaining the needed data to assess food insecurity in a region or country because of inefficient data-gathering resources, conflict, and lack of access to affected areas, among other reasons. 

Where have previous famines been declared? 

2011: The last famine in Somalia was officially declared in July 2011, though the UN estimates it began in October 2010 and ended in April 2012. More than a quarter of a million people died — half of them were children. 

2017: Parts of South Sudan experienced famine from February-June 2017, with millions affected. The death toll from this famine remains unclear. 

The big picture: Households experiencing catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity may be classified as a IPC Phase 5 catastrophe even if the area does not meet the criteria for a famine. 

This was the case for hundreds of thousands of people in parts of Ethiopia's Tigrey region last year and for tens of thousands in Afghanistan's Ghor province this year. 

The IPC in recent years also adopted a "famine likely" classification, which is often used when data about food insecurity is scarce, but the available data indicates a famine is occurring or likely occurring.  

Between the lines: A number of famines occurred prior to the start of the IPC system, including the 1992 Somalia famine that killed an estimated 220,000 people. 

More than 7.1 million people — nearly half of Somalia's population — are currently in need of food assistance, according to the UN. 

More than 1 million people have been displaced by drought since it began in January 2021, per the UN refugee agency. 

Famine is expected later this year in the Bay Region's Baidoa and Burkhaba districts, as well as in displaced populations in Baidoa settlements of southern Somalia unless aid is significantly scaled up, the latest IPC report warned. 

Children in Somalia are especially vulnerable. 

At least 1.5 million children across the country are expected to face acute malnutrition by October, according to the UN. 

"None of the children that I saw at the stabilization center in Banadir hospital could smile. Very few could cry," UN aid chief Martin Griffiths told reporters earlier this week during his trip to Somalia. 

"As we discovered when we left, we had the good fortune to hear a child cry, and we were told that when a child cries, there is a chance of survival. Children who don’t cry are the ones we need to worry about," he added. 

The latest IPC analysis serves as a "final warning," Griffiths said. 

"The situation and trends resemble those seen in 2010-2011, in that crisis. Except now they are worse," he added. 

Half of the deaths from the last famine in Somalia happened before a formal declaration was made in 2011, aid groups note in urging the international community to act now. 

The current humanitarian crises in Somalia — and the larger Horn of Africa region — are due to a number of factors, including:

Protracted drought: The Horn of Africa is experiencing its worst drought in four decades, with four consecutive failed rainy seasons and the fifth projected to fail as well. 

Climate change worsens droughts in part by making them hotter, thereby drying out the landscape further. 

Prolonged conflict: Three decades of political stability and civil war, including the ongoing insurgency led by the al-Shabaab armed group have only worsened Somalia's humanitarian crises. 

Ongoing conflict makes it harder to collect data on and get aid to those most in need, particularly in a country still reeling from the coronavirus pandemic. 

Soaring food prices: Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent global food prices to record highs. 

Somalia sourced 90% of its wheat from the two countries prior to this year. 

Ukraine said this week that grain is headed to Somalia. But the skyrocketing food prices have already had detrimental consequences in the East African nation, including on people's ability to buy food and humanitarian groups' operations.

Funding shortfalls: With the world's attention largely focused on the war in Ukraine, protracted humanitarian crises have seen worsening funding shortfalls, aid groups say. 

The international community is "in the last minute of the eleventh hour to save lives" in Somalia, the UN's Griffiths warned this week. 

"The clock is running, and it will soon run out."

Famine at Somalia's door

What is a famine and why are they so rarely declared?

People sit next to tents in a displacement camp for people impacted by drought on September 3, 2022 in Baidoa, Somalia

People sit next to tents in a displacement camp for people impacted by drought on Sept. 3 in Baidoa, Somalia. Photo: Ed Ram/Getty Images

Somalia

The United Nations put out a dire warning earlier this week: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="famine is &quot;at the door in Somalia.&quot; " data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/05/famine-somalia-drought-humanitarian-crisis-hunger" data-vars-content-id="c27a79d3-ac11-4ab7-af95-58878ff525ac" data-vars-headline="Famine at Somalia&#x27;s door" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/05/famine-somalia-drought-humanitarian-crisis-hunger" target="_self">famine is &quot;at the door in Somalia.&quot; </a>Driving the news: Famine is expected in parts of southern Somalia between October and December unless urgent assistance gets to those most in need, the UN said. Humanitarian groups are urging the international community to act now, saying waiting for a formal famine declaration will be too late.

The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday announced sanctions against Iran's morality police over the death of a woman in custody and violence against protesters.

Driving the news: Mahsa Amini, 22, died last week after being arrested by the morality police for allegedly violating a religious law requiring women to wear a headscarf. Protests over her death have since erupted in dozens of cities.

Police claimed Amini was not mistreated and that she died of a heart attack. Her father, Amjad Amini, told BBC Persia that she had no preexisting conditions and was only allowed to view part of her body after her death.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has ordered an investigation into Amini's death.

What they're saying: "Mahsa Amini was a courageous woman whose death in Morality Police custody was yet another act of brutality by the Iranian regime’s security forces against its own people," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.

"We condemn this unconscionable act in the strongest terms and call on the Iranian government to end its violence against women and its ongoing violent crackdown on free expression and assembly," Yellen added.

President Biden on Wednesday said the U.S. stands "with the brave citizens and the brave women of Iran, who right now are demonstrating to secure their basic rights."

Iranian officials have accused the U.S. and European countries of meddling in Iran's internal affairs.

The big picture: Treasury also announced sanctions against seven senior leaders of Iran's security organizations who the U.S. said "routinely employ violence to suppress peaceful protesters and members of Iranian civil society, political dissidents, women’s rights activists, and members of the Iranian Baha’i community."

Hengaw, a Kurdish human rights group, reported Wednesday that seven protesters have been killed and hundreds of others injured since the demonstrations began last Friday. Hundreds have also been arrested, the group said.

Iranian officials have denied reports that protesters have been killed by security forces, per Reuters. Some officials have claimed without evidence that "foreign agents" are fueling the unrest, according to the New York Times.

Go deeper: Internet restricted in Iran as anti-government protests intensify

U.S. sanctions Iran's morality police over death of woman in custody

“We condemn this unconscionable act ... and call on the Iranian government to end its violence against women," Treasury said.

Dozens of people stage a demonstration to protest the death of a 22-year-old woman under custody

Protesters in Iran rally to demand justice for Mahsa Amini. Photo: Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Iran

The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday announced sanctions against <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Iran&#x27;s morality police" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/world/iran" data-vars-content-id="e7c32613-2881-4461-8114-ff446149b09b" data-vars-headline="U.S. sanctions Iran&#x27;s morality police over death of woman in custody" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/world/iran" target="_self">Iran&#x27;s morality police</a> over the death of a woman in custody and violence against protesters.Driving the news: Mahsa Amini, 22, died last week after being arrested by the morality police for allegedly violating a religious law requiring women to wear a headscarf. Protests over her death have since erupted in dozens of cities.

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Stories

Russia to annex four occupied regions of Ukraine on Friday

Over 70 people fleeing Lebanon die after boat sinks off Syrian coast

U.S. sanctions Iran's morality police over death of woman in custody

UN chief: The "world is in big trouble"

Famine at Somalia's door