National

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

The government has new rules to determine what's really organic and what's a sham.

Why it matters: The term "organic" has been stretched over the years as these foods become increasingly popular — and pricey. Products labeled organic that don't meet government standards are hitting store shelves.

Case in point: The Justice Department recently charged several individuals in a multimillion-dollar scheme to sell ordinary soybeans from Eastern Europe as organic in the U.S.

Organic soybeans cost up to 50% more than their nonorganic counterparts.

Driving the news: The Department of Agriculture is cracking down on fakes with its biggest-ever overhaul of organic guidelines, released Thursday.

The changes include requiring those in the middle — such as traders and brokers — to be certified alongside the food producers themselves, per the Washington Post. There will also be more inspections and required certification for imports.

The big picture: U.S. organic food sales hit $57.5 billion in 2021 — more than double what they were about a decade ago, per Food Dive.

Reality check: "Though some consumers view 'organic' as a synonym for 'healthy,' the science on whether organic food is healthier is mixed," the Washington Post's Laura Reiley writes.

U.S. government cracks down on scammy organic labels

Illustration of an apple wearing a joke Groucho Mark glasses

Food

Politics & Policy

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

U.S. debt limit and outstanding debt subject to the limit

Data: U.S. Treasury Department, FactSet; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

The U.S. has reached its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, the Treasury Department announced on Thursday, with no obvious deal in sight. 

Why it matters: The U.S. government runs on a deficit, so the Treasury Department will start "extraordinary measures" to avoid defaulting on government bonds. 

Driving the news: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a letter to Congress said that Treasury was instituting a "debt issuance suspension period" beginning Thursday and running through June 5.

In addition, Treasury will not be able to fulfill certain investments, including to the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund.

"As I stated in my January 13 letter, the period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. government months into the future," Yellen stated. 

"I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States," she added. 

The big picture: These measures could be exhausted by early summer, Yellen warned last week. 

Congress last raised the debt ceiling in December of 2021, when Democrats held unified control of Congress.

What they're saying: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Thursday that he is "not concerned with a financial crisis."

"In the end, I think the important thing to remember is that America must never default on its debt. It never has and it never will," McConnell said. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), meanwhile, said: "Political brinkmanship with the debt limit would be a massive hit to local economies, American families and would be nothing less than an economic crisis at the hands of the Republicans."

How the debt ceiling is different than a government shutdown

Government shutdowns come when Congress can't get appropriations bills passed before the existing ones expire. 

The most recent shutdown was in 2018-19, and featured a general stoppage of government services, including furloughs for federal workers. 

The debt ceiling requires Congress to raise the threshold to pay for already-appropriated spending. 

Raising the debt limit was generally not a big fight until the 1980s, but there have been repeated standoffs in the years, according to the Congressional Research Service. 

A debt limit impasse in 2011 led to the first downgrade in history on the U.S. federal credit rating. 

How the Treasury Department's extraordinary measures work

The Treasury Department can prioritize payments, including suspending payments to long-term programs for government employees. It can repay the programs after the limit is raised. 

In her letter to Congress last week, Yellen identified the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund and Government Securities Investment Fund as potential avenues for these extraordinary measures.

Democrats control the White House and Senate, but they'll need to strike some sort of deal with House Republicans. 

Status in the House: Some GOP members say they're firmly against any increase to the debt limit. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Tuesday he wants to “set a budget, set a path to get us to a balanced budget and let’s start paying this debt off.”

What the White House is saying: “As President Biden has made clear, Congress must deal with the debt limit and must do so without conditions," White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday.

What to know about extraordinary measures as debt ceiling hits

The U.S. has reached its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, with no obvious end in sight.

Debt ceiling

Donald Trump

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

The Supreme Court said Thursday that its investigation into the leaked draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson has so far failed to identify the responsible party but noted the probe will continue with the court's "full support."

Why it matters: The incident marked the first time in modern history that a ruling leaked before the court issued it publicly. 

Chief Justice John Roberts confirmed at the time the authenticity of the draft document published by Politico, but said it did not represent the court's final decision, calling the leak an "egregious breach of trust."

Roberts then issued a statement directing Gail Curley, the marshal of the court, to investigate the leak.

Driving the news: Eight months after the leak roiled the country, the court said Thursday in a statement that its investigative team "has to date been unable to identify a person responsible by a preponderance of the evidence."

Investigators performed forensic analysis, examined the court's IT systems and conducted 126 formal interviews with 97 employees, "all of whom denied disclosing the opinion," according to their 20-page report.

"The pandemic and resulting expansion of the ability to work from home, as well as gaps in the Court’s security policies, created an environment where it was too easy to remove sensitive information from the building and the Court’s IT networks, increasing the risk of both deliberate and accidental disclosures of Court-sensitive information," per the report.

"Investigators looked closely into any connections between employees and reporters," the report notes.

They also "assessed the wide array of public speculation, mostly on social media, about any individual who may have disclosed the document," but found nothing to substantiate any of the social media allegations.

What to watch: Investigators continue to "review and process some electronic data that has been collected and a few other inquiries remain pending," per the report. 

"To the extent that additional investigation yields new evidence or leads, the investigators will pursue them."

Former Army lawyer will lead investigation into Supreme Court leak

This story has been updated with new details throughout.

SCOTUS says it's so far unable to identify leaker of draft opinion that overturned Roe

The investigation will continue with the court's "full support."

Photo of the Supreme Court building from the front 

The U.S. Supreme Court Building in Washington. Photo: Robert Alexander via Getty Images

Supreme Court

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern shocked many when she announced her impending resignation, citing burnout, but some of the burdens she has faced are familiar to women leaders around the world.

The big picture: The vitriol aimed at Ardern during her tenure reflects wider trends that directly impact many women in politics.

Former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark issued a statement Thursday praising the "extraordinary job" Ardern has done, but noted that, "Jacinda has faced a level of hatred and vitriol which in my experience is unprecedented in our country."

When she was elected in 2017, Ardern became the world's youngest woman head of government and was only the second to give birth while in office, after Pakistan's Benazir Bhutto in 1990.

"When women stand up to claim their space, in politics and public life, there is an ensuing backlash. This is a global phenomenon. It happens pretty much everywhere," Sandra Pepera, director of the National Democratic Institute's Gender, Women and Democracy team, told Axios.

Ardern had handled a series of crises while being trolled and abused online, she said. "It is a heavy toll on political women, and they are having to develop wells of resilience, far above the norm," Pepera said.

While Ardern's leadership won praise from many quarters, her government's crackdown on guns following the country's worst mass shooting and its strict handling of the COVID-19 pandemic fueled opposition that veered into extremism.

Sanjana Hattotuwa, a researcher at the Te Pūnaha Matatini Disinformation Project, which monitors misinformation and online extremism, told The Guardian last year that the group had observed "the most significant increase in violent, vulgar, vicious, venomous commentary against the PM since the start of our study in mid-August 2021."

Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin (left) is greeted by New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern during a welcome ceremony in Auckland, New Zealand, on Nov. 30. Photo: Diego OPATOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

“The vocabulary … has migrated from implicit and elusive references to her murder, assassination and rape now to explicit calls for it," he added.

New Zealand's Newshub, citing data from the Official Information Act, reported last June that threats recorded against Ardern nearly tripled in the past few years. 

Ardern told local news last April that she'd seen online abuse "get worse over the past 12 months than it has been before, so I can also expect it can get better.”

Why it matters: These threats against women in public office can have a tangible effect on whether women seek out and wish to remain in government — let alone whether they'll be successful.

The constant stream of attacks can often dissuade women from entering into politics, particularly for younger women as they witness more established women in politics be forced to contend with the abuse, Pepera told Axios.

A 2021 study found that among political candidates in the U.K. facing harassment and intimidation, women were more likely than men to modify their campaign strategies out of safety concerns. 

These adjustments — such as cutting down on canvassing or social media — tended to negatively affect their chances of success.

While some countries, such as Bolivia, have made efforts to criminalize violence against women in politics, implementation of these efforts has proven more difficult, according to Pepera.

Zoom in: Women of color and women from other minority backgrounds are often disproportionally targeted in the abuse lobbed at women in politics.

A study published in October by the Center for Democracy and Technology found that women of color in the U.S. running for office were four times more likely to be targeted with violent abuse than white candidates, and were more likely to be on the receiving end of sexist abuse than white women running for office.

According to Amnesty International, among the Indian women politicians targeted on Twitter, Muslim women and women from marginalized castes received significantly more abuse than women from other religions and castes.

According to Amnesty International U.K. Director Kate Allen, Black women MPs are subject to "horrifying levels of online abuse" and are "84% more likely than white women to be mentioned in abusive or problematic tweets."

The behavior of women in politics is frequently held to a different standard than that of their male colleagues.

A political firestorm ensued last year when Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin was recorded dancing at a private event, despite the fact that plenty of male politicians, from former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson to former President Donald Trump had been seen doing the same.

The outrage sparked a movement of women — including Hillary Clinton —posting videos and photos of themselves dancing online in solidarity with Marin.

Context: A 2019 study examining "uncivil" tweets addressed to Canadian politicians and U.S. senators found that in both cases women were disproportionally targeted.

In October, a research initiative created by Princeton University and the Anti-Defamation League found that U.S. women officials at the local level were targeted at a higher frequency than others, comprising 42.4% of all incidents.

In the U.K., members of Parliament have reported a spike in threatening messages since Brexit, with women and other minorities bearing the brunt of the abuse, CNN reported.

According to Amnesty International, women politicians in India face a "shocking scale of abuse" on Twitter, owing not just to their political stances but also stemming from their gender, religious and caste identities as well as their marital status.

A 2021 study by the Inter-Parliamentary Union and the African Parliamentary Union found that "sexism, harassment and violence against women are ubiquitous in parliaments across Africa." Often, the abuse came from male parliamentary colleagues, both within their own parties and from rival parties.

Go deeper: Women politicians are under siege

Ardern's exit after "unprecedented" threats shows toll of burnout for women leaders

"Jacinda has faced a level of hatred and vitriol which in my experience is unprecedented in our country."

Women in politics

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Tel Aviv

Axios from Tel Aviv

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan in a private meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Thursday raised the Israeli government’s plan to overhaul the country's judicial system, U.S. officials briefed on the meeting told Axios.

Why it matters: It is the first time that a senior Biden administration official has discussed the issue directly with Netanyahu. The Biden administration is concerned the plan could harm the independence of the Israeli judicial system and other democratic institutions.

The big picture: The plan, announced less than two weeks after Netanyahu's right-wing government took office, has deepened political divisions and stoked fear among some that the heightened tensions could tear Israeli society apart.

The White House debated in recent weeks how much it wants to weigh in on the sensitive and politically charged Israeli domestic issue that many in the U.S. government fear could impact Israel’s democracy and, as a result, the U.S.’ relationship with Israel.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office declined to comment on what Sullivan said regarding the plan.

Catch up quick: The Israeli government’s plan, if implemented, will significantly limit the Supreme Court’s ability to review laws and strike them down.

It includes passing a law that would allow the governing coalition to override Supreme Court rulings by a simple majority of 61 votes in the 120-member Knesset.

It also seeks to end the Supreme Court's ability to revoke administrative decisions by the government on the grounds of "reasonability," significantly decreasing judicial oversight.

The plan envisions giving the government and the coalition in parliament absolute control over appointing judges.

Additionally, the plan includes changing the law so that ministers would be able to install political appointees as legal advisers in their ministries, something that is not under their authority today.

Worth noting: In his private meeting with Netanyahu, the U.S. officials said Sullivan also raised the Biden administration's concerns about the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. 

Scoop: Sullivan raises Israeli judicial overhaul plan with Netanyahu

It is the first time that a senior Biden administration official has discussed the issue directly with Netanyahu.

Sullivan meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (2nd R) in Jerusalem on January 19, 2023.

White House national security adviser Sullivan meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Jan. 19.  Photo: Handout/Israeli Government Press Office (GPO)/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Benjamin Netanyahu

Israel

Actor Alec Baldwin will be charged with two counts of involuntary manslaughter in the fatal “Rust” set shooting, New Mexico’s district attorney’s office said Thursday.

The big picture: The announcement comes after Baldwin allegedly fired a prop gun, killing "Rust" crew member Halyna Hutchins and injuring another person on the movie set in October 2021.

Baldwin has denied responsibility for Hutchins' death, arguing there should not have been any live rounds on set, per Reuters. He told ABC News he never pulled the trigger on the firearm that led to Hutchins' death.

He filed a lawsuit in November against members of the film crew, alleging there was wrongdoing on the set. 

Driving the news: The film's armorer, Hannah Gutierrez-Reed, will also be charged with two counts of involuntary manslaughter, district attorney Mary Carmack-Altwies said in a statement posted to social media.

The movie's assistant director, David Halls, has agreed to a plea agreement on a charge of negligent use of a deadly weapon. Halls will face six months of probation, Carmack-Altwies said.

No charges will be filed on the specific shooting of “Rust” director Joel Souza, who was injured on set.

Carmack-Altwies said Baldwin and Gutierrez-Reed will be “charged in the alternative” with the manslaughter counts, meaning the judge will decide “under which definition of involuntary manslaughter they were guilty.”

The district attorney's office did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

What they’re saying: “On my watch, no one is above the law, and everyone deserves justice," Carmack-Altwies said in a statement.

The district attorney told CNN in an interview Thursday that the charges are meant to send a warning to future filmmakers in New Mexico.

“We want you to come here,” she said. “We want you to film movies, but we want you to do it safely. And we certainly want to get justice for anyone that is that is a victim like in this case.”

“If any one of these three people — Alec Baldwin, Hannah Gutierrez-Reed or David Halls—had done their job, Halyna Hutchins would be alive today. It’s that simple,” said Andrea Reeb, the special prosecutor appointed by the DA to the case, in a statement.

The Hutchins Family said in a statement released through attorney Brian Panish that they "support the charges" and "will fully cooperate with this prosecution."

"It is a comfort to the family that, in New Mexico, no one is above the law," the statement said.

The other side: “This decision distorts Halyna Hutchins’ tragic death and represents a terrible miscarriage of justice," said Luke Nikas, Baldwin's attorney, in a statement to Axios. 

"Mr. Baldwin had no reason to believe there was a live bullet in the gun – or anywhere on the movie set. He relied on the professionals with whom he worked, who assured him the gun did not have live rounds. 

"We will fight these charges, and we will win.” 

Worth noting: Involuntary manslaughter carries a maximum sentence of 18 months in prison, according to New Mexico law.

Catch up quick: During production in 2021, Baldwin allegedly fired a prop gun after he was reportedly told by Halls, the assistant director, that the weapon wasn’t loaded, per AP.

The Santa Fe County Sheriff's Office did not charge anyone in the shooting. But the office released a full report in 2022 about the incident, suggesting there had been several issues with weapons on the movie set.

In October of last year, Baldwin reached a settlement with Hutchins's family in a wrongful death lawsuit, the family attorney told Axios.

As a part of the settlement, Matthew Hutchins, the widower of Halyna Hutchins, will now be credited as an executive producer on “Rust” and receive a share of the film's profits once it’s released.

The film was slated to resume production this month.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

Alec Baldwin to face involuntary manslaughter charges for "Rust" shooting

"We will fight these charges, and we will win," Baldwin's attorney said in a statement.

Actor Alec Baldwin (L) appears on January 23, 2019 in Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City.

Actor Alec Baldwin appears in court in New York City. Photo: Alec Tabak-Pool/Getty Images

Alec Baldwin

Closer

Axios Closer

Share of employed U.S. workers who are union members

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The percentage of American workers who are members of a union fell to a new low in 2022 despite the total number of unionized workers increasing.

Driving the news: 10.1% of workers were unionized in 2022, down from 10.3% in 2021 and a high of 20.1% in 1983, the first year the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported comparable figures.

Why it matters: Unions play a powerful role in the workforce, with advocates saying they advance worker rights while critics say they stymie progress.

By the numbers: The workforce added 273,000 unionized jobs in 2022, up 1.9% from 2021.

But the number of total jobs increased by 5.3 million, a 3.9% jump, outpacing the growth in union roles.

The big picture: Several high-profile unionization efforts have fetched headlines in recent months, including the ongoing campaign to organize Starbucks locations and Amazon warehouses.

71% of Americans approved of labor unions in 2022, the highest mark recorded by Gallup since 1965.

But companies like Starbucks and Amazon have resisted unionization efforts, arguing that they'd be better off without them.

Zoom in: The rate of union membership among public-sector workers is five times greater than the rate of private-sector employees — 33.1% to 6%, according to the BLS.

Median weekly compensation for union members was $1,216 in 2022, compared with $1,029 for nonunion workers.

The bottom line: Unions have momentum in the public square, but that hasn't yet translated into a greater share of the workforce.

Unionization rate hit all-time low in 2022 despite growth in overall members

Unions have momentum in the public square, but that hasn't translated to a greater share of the workforce.

Labor unions

White House and congressional Republicans are drawing battle lines in the fraught and perilous debt ceiling debate — with each side becoming more entrenched in their refusal to negotiate with the other.

Driving the news: The U.S. is expected to hit its borrowing limit on Thursday, meaning the Treasury will resort to "extraordinary measures" to stave off a potential default.

That move's becoming increasingly common in the nation's polarized capital.

Why it matters: The perennial fight to hike Uncle Sam's $31 trillion credit limit — a charade that Wall Street abhors — is being amplified by a Congress with a narrow GOP majority that's digging in against hiking the debt limit, which the Biden administration on Wednesday branded "economic vandalism."

Normally, investors see a gridlocked government as a good thing, preventing either major party from implementing dramatic changes.

But this time, the stalemate raises the prospect of the world's largest economy defaulting on its debts, igniting a firestorm in global markets at a time when a U.S. recession seems like a growing possibility.

The deadlock is expected to last into the summer. Among the challenges:

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has a tenuous hold on a GOP caucus dominated by Republicans who reject the normal mechanics of governing.

The Biden administration is unwilling to negotiate substantive concessions in response to what it sees as threats that may wreak havoc in global markets.

Between the lines: The debt ceiling debate is an avatar of what some have argued is a U.S. democracy that's become increasingly polarized, ungovernable, incapable of tackling major challenges — and could be on the verge of outright destabilization.

For years, markets have presumed that a U.S. debt default "is unthinkable, and we have agreed. But this time … the threat will become a major market concern within months," Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments. 

The intrigue: Washington's partisan skirmishes over the debt limit have been the norm for years. Financial blogger Josh Barro noted on Wednesday that extraordinary measures have been deployed at least nine times in the last 20 years.

It's also sparked lots of speculation the government will need to rely on some very creative accounting in order to do an end-run around default.

The Treasury isn't expected to exhaust all its options for at least several months, at which point a technical default — or a credit downgrade from Wall Street ratings agencies — will loom large.

Some of the (long-shot) tools at Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's disposal include minting a trillion-dollar coin (unlikely) or issuing bonds with an above-market interest rate, which would reduce their face value.

What they're saying: Bank of America noted last week that "failure to raise — and breaching — the debt ceiling could bring far more economic pain and is the fiscal policy equivalent of crossing the Rubicon."

Once the clock runs out, the government could miss interest payments or cut spending on key programs.

"This would likely trigger a downgrade by credit rating agencies, as was the case in 2011 during the last debt ceiling showdown," BofA added.

The bottom line: Global bond yields have already been spooked by the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation, which has driven up borrowing costs.

A game of chicken between Congress and the White House is the last thing an addled market needs.

Debt ceiling fight set to "cross the Rubicon"

It's becoming increasingly common in the nation's polarized capital.

Illustration of a stack of bills crushing Uncle Sam's hat.

House Republicans hope a strict, new voting schedule will help juice their slim majority — as only a handful of missed votes could change the game.

Why it matters: Sickness, surgeries, funerals and other events calling House members away from D.C. will have higher stakes than ever with historically tight margins and no more proxy voting.

The significance of empty seats in the chamber was on full display during the speakership vote. 

Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) flew back to D.C. after having a medical procedure to ensure Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) Speaker victory.

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Tex.) left a premature, newborn son in order to cast his final vote.

Between the lines: While Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) also presided over perilously thin margins, members have been able to cast votes from home due to the pandemic. Republicans ended that option upon taking the majority.

"Attendance will be critical with a 4 seat majority," one Republican leadership aide told Axios, adding it will be "especially tough" for Democrats to "get in the consistent habit of showing up in person after many of them proxy voted the majority of time over the last two years."

The aide said Republicans "will stick to a strict floor schedule and not leave vote times open for hours like Democrats did, which will require timely attendance."

McCarthy's risky weapon in the 118th Congress

The stakes are higher for attendance with historically tight margins and no more proxy voting.

Thursday's top stories

U.S. government cracks down on scammy organic labels

What to know about extraordinary measures as debt ceiling hits

SCOTUS says it's so far unable to identify leaker of draft opinion that overturned Roe

Ardern's exit after "unprecedented" threats shows toll of burnout for women leaders

Scoop: Sullivan raises Israeli judicial overhaul plan with Netanyahu

Alec Baldwin to face involuntary manslaughter charges for "Rust" shooting

Unionization rate hit all-time low in 2022 despite growth in overall members

Debt ceiling fight set to "cross the Rubicon"

McCarthy's risky weapon in the 118th Congress

Yellen's message in Africa: We're here to stay

Mayors want to fight climate change, but fear losing their jobs

ChatGPT is the talk of Davos

"We won't shy away": Mayors are shaming gunmakers

Zelensky: West has "vaccine against Russian tyranny" — more weapons

New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern to step down as prime minister

Biden bolsters California disaster declaration as storm death toll rises