topics

politics-policy

epstein-files

donald-trump

2026-midterm-elections

immigration

behind-the-curtain

race-and-equity

technology

privacy-tech-regulation

automation-and-ai

tiktok-news

big-tech

social-media

cybersecurity

economy

social-security

inflation

tariffs

federal-reserve

jobs

transportation

business

stock-market-news

retail-news

crypto

media

elon-musk

dealmaking

health

rfk-jr

drug-prices

axios-explains-abortion

public-health

world

israel

axios-explains-ukraine

iran

russia

china

energy-climate

nuclear-energy

climate-energy-policy

climate-change

extreme-weather

alternative-energy

electric-vehicles

science

emerging-tech

biomedicine

newsletters

pittsburgh

atlanta

san-diego

charlotte

boulder

washington-dc

kansas-city

dallas

denver

detroit

des-moines

austin

boston

chicago

cleveland

columbus

houston

indianapolis

miami

nashville

new-orleans

nw-arkansas

philadelphia

phoenix

portland

richmond

salt-lake-city

san-antonio

san-francisco

seattle

tampa-bay

twin-cities

raleigh

huntsville

colorado-springs

axios-local

axios-pro

axios-live

the-axios-show

National

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is ruling out a potential proposal from House Republicans that calls for triaging payments after the exhaustion of "extraordinary measures" to avoid default on the federal debt.

The big picture: The U.S. has reached its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, the Treasury Department announced on Thursday, with no obvious deal in sight.

Yellen said Friday that any failure to pay a government bill would constitute a debt default, insisting that her department doesn’t have the “systems” to prioritize debt payments.

The draft GOP proposal, reported by The Washington Post, would buy time on the debt limit.

But the debt prioritization it leans on would essentially be picking winners and losers on who gets paid, pitting Social Security recipients against, say, U.S. military personnel.  

The proposal has been savaged by White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain.

Driving the news: In a brief press exchange at the Presidential Palace in Dakar, Senegal, Yellen gave both historical and technical arguments for why Congress needs to raise the debt limit.

“A failure on the part of the United States to meet any obligation, whether it's the debt holders, members of our military, or to Social Security recipients, is effectively a default,” she said. 

“I will also say that Treasury systems have all been built to pay our bills, to pay all of our bills when they are due and on time and not to prioritize one form of spending over another.”

Go deeper: Yellen slams Russia and China in Africa speech

Yellen rejects GOP gambit on debt ceiling

Debt ceiling

Joe Biden

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

The U.S. will designate the Wagner Group, a private Russian mercenary company currently deployed in Ukraine, as a "significant transnational criminal organization" and will announce additional sanctions against the group, the White House said on Friday. 

Why it matters: The U.S. believes Wagner has about 50,000 personnel deployed to aid Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Last month, the White House said the group recently received weapon supplies in the form of infantry rockets and missiles from North Korea.

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby on Friday detailed the North Korean weapon shipment to the group, releasing photos of Russian railcars traveling from Russia to North Korea and back in November. 

The U.S. does not believe the North Korean shipment will significantly alter the dynamics of the battlefield, but it fears Pyongyang will send additional shipments in the future, Kirby said. 

North Korean officials denied the arms shipment, which would violate UN  Security Council resolutions. Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner's owner and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, also denied the group received the shipments, per Reuters. 

What they're saying: "These actions recognize the transcontinental threat that Wagner poses, including through its ongoing pattern of serious criminal activity," Kirby said during a White House press briefing Friday, ahead of the Treasury Department's formal announcement next week. 

"With these actions, and there will be more to come, our message to any company considering providing support to Wagner is simply this: Wagner is a criminal organization that is committing widespread atrocities and human rights abuses, and we will work relentlessly to identify, disrupt, expose and target those that are assisting Wagner," Kirby added.

Wagner has been subject to U.S. sanctions since 2017.

Between the lines: The U.S. believes that Putin's increasing reliance on Wagner has created friction between the mercenary group and the Russian military and Russian ministries, Kirby told reporters. 

"We're seeing indications, including in intelligence, that tensions between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense are increasing. Wagner is becoming a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries," Kirby said.

"Publicly, Prigozhin and his fighters have criticized Russian generals and defense officials for their performance on the battlefield. Prigozhin is trying to advance his own interest in Ukraine, and Wagner is making military decisions based largely, largely, on what they will generate for Prigozhin in terms of positive publicity."

The big picture: Kirby said the U.S. assesses that Wagner's presence in Ukraine includes 10,000 formally contracted fighters and 40,000 convicts who were recruited from Russian prisons.

The group's fighters have recently been involved in some of the bloodiest battles in eastern Ukraine, including in Soledar and Bakhmut. 

Last week, Wagner claimed its fighters had taken control of Soledar. The Russian Defense Ministry later said its forces took control of the salt-mining town.

Ukrainian officials denied both claims, saying fighting over the town was ongoing.

Go deeper: U.S. to send Ukraine $2.5 billion arms shipment

U.S. to designate Russia's Wagner Group as a transnational criminal organization

It comes in part in response to North Korean weapon shipments to the mercenary group, the White House said.

People looking at a drones on display inside the Wagner Group's headquarters in St. Petersburg, Russia, in November 2022.

Drones on display inside the Wagner Group's headquarters in St. Petersburg, Russia, in November. Photo: Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images 

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia

Ukraine

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Macro

Axios Macro

It was a busy week for layoffs in corporate America. Tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet both announced they would fire tens of thousands of workers (about 5% of each company's global workforce).

Meanwhile, online furniture retailer Wayfair said today it would shed 10% of its workforce (roughly 1,750 employees). 

Between the lines: On the one hand, layoff announcements (including by Goldman Sachs) seem to signal trouble ahead for the labor market. On the other hand, key indicators point to a job market that's chugging along.

For one, the unemployment rate is at a historically low 3.5% as of December — suggesting a still-tight labor market.

There are also very few people filing for unemployment on a weekly basis (just 190,000 last week), with no notable uptick. That may have something to do with generous severance packages. Alphabet, for one, will pay at least 16 weeks of severance, plus six months of health benefits, in the U.S.

Yes, but: There is evidence that the labor market is cooling, beyond the ongoing layoff announcements across tech and e-commerce firms that have seen demand come back to earth. Federal Reserve vice chair Lael Brainard pointed to some of this evidence in a speech delivered Thursday.

Perhaps the most telling sign is that the growth of monthly payrolls has slowed. During the first quarter of 2022, the economy added an average of 540,000 jobs each month. Last quarter, that slowed to a (still-strong) 250,000 jobs added on average per month. 

Temporary-help firms have been eliminating positions since last summer, which Brainard described as a "leading indicator." 

Finally, average weekly hours are falling: "This margin is among the easiest to adjust by firms facing declining demand, especially those who may be reluctant to undertake layoffs following the challenges encountered in restoring employment following the pandemic-induced layoffs," Brainard said. 

A tale of two job markets

Layoffs signal trouble ahead, yet other key indicators show an economy that's chugging along.

Jobs

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Whats Next

Axios What's Next

At their winter gathering on Capitol Hill this week, the nation's mayors delivered a bipartisan message to Congress and President Biden: Help stop the flow of migrants and asylum seekers into our cities — and give us the funds to take humane care of those who arrive.

Why it matters: As much as they care about issues such as climate change, mental health, COVID-19 relief funds, gun control, and the opioid crisis, immigration bubbled to the top of the agenda at the U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting.

"Unchecked immigration placed a tremendous burden on our cities," said Francis X. Suarez, mayor of Miami and president of the nonpartisan group of mayors.

"We've been very vocal and transparent about how this crisis has impacted American cities and in our call on the federal government to help not just deal with the crisis, but solve the crisis," said Suarez. (Suarez is a registered Republican, though the office of Miami mayor is a nonpartisan position.)  

The meeting drew 270 mayors from cities of 30,000 people or more — including 70 newcomers and an unusually high number of women among them. 

Catch up fast: Record numbers of migrants and asylum seekers arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border have created humanitarian crises, logistical headaches, and a political nightmare for President Biden from nearly the start of his presidency, Axios' Stef Kight reports. 

Republican governors like Texas' Greg Abbott and Florida's Ron DeSantis have bused thousands of migrants to liberal cities like New York, Washington, D.C., and Chicago to challenge Biden's border policies, prompting the Democratic mayors of those cities to ask for federal help. 

In early January, Biden released a new policy in an effort to curb illegal border crossings. 

In a nod to the gravity of the issue, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was dispatched to the conference for the first time and held a closed-door session with mayors on immigration and other issues.

The following day, the mayor of San Diego, Todd Gloria (D), held a closed-door session on "Responding to the Influx of Migrants to Our Cities." 

"What we truly need beyond the dollars from the federal government is comprehensive immigration reform," Gloria said at a press conference before that session began.

"What we have is an antiquated system, and Congress surely sees that."

Suarez said that "as mayors, we have to fill the potholes of America," adding: "One of our potholes is our ongoing lack of action on immigration."

Zoom out: New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) captured the mood of the conference in demanding a "national call to action on three of the most serious issues facing us as a nation: gun violence, the fentanyl epidemic, and asylum seeker crisis."

"These are issues that need a 50-state strategy," said Adams, who in October declared a state of emergency over the busing of migrants to the Big Apple.

He recently visited El Paso to see the border crisis firsthand: "What I saw was not a state problem or city problem — it is a national problem driven by global forces impacting regular people."

His six-point migration plan included naming a "dedicated point person" in the administration, expediting the right-to-work for asylum seekers, and a "decompression strategy at the border that establishes a plan for each migrant's arrival."

Between the lines: The nation's mayors skew heavily Democratic, so they're taking pains not to offend the Biden administration. 

“Mayors have never had better partners than the Biden administration,” Columbus, Ohio's Democratic Mayor Andrew J. Ginther said at the meeting.

Mayors call for help with migrants and asylum seekers

"Unchecked immigration placed a tremendous burden on our cities," the mayor of Miami said.

NYC Mayor Eric Adams speaks at the U.S. Conference of Mayors' winter meeting.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams outlined an agenda for immigration reform at the U.S. Conference of Mayors winter meeting in Washington, D.C. Photo: Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Mayors

Realtors across the country foresee an increasingly buyer-friendly housing market in 2023, a major shift from the frenetic and expensive pandemic-era housing boom. 

Driving the news: The housing market has slowed — thanks to mortgage rates hovering around 6%. 

Axios polled more than 75 experts across Axios Local cities to find out what's in store for 2023 and found that sellers everywhere will have to put in more work to close the deal as buyers aren't willing to overbid on less-than-perfect homes.

"Buyers have and should continue to have a choice of properties to purchase along with some wiggle room, which could include sellers paying buyer closing costs, price decreases and property repairs," Sheryl Bowden, vice president of Phoenix Realtors, said. 

In Charlotte, the market is moving with interest rates, Jeff Clay, owner of JClay Realty said. 

And unless those rates come down drastically, “we are likely in for a market with low overall activity, low supply and demand that will probably stay a bit muted,” Clay said.

In San Francisco, Eileen Bermingham with Corcoran Icon Properties predicts "fewer instances of overbidding and multiple offers.

"Buyers will be split into two camps: ones waiting for prices to fall, or those jumping on good opportunities," she said.

In the Lone Star State, drastic home price falls are unexpected, according to Adam Perdue, an economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

"Over the next few years, we definitely are going to see a flattening in the rate of price increases on a year-over-year basis," Perdue said. 

Other cities, like Miami, might see continued appreciation in 2023.

"South Florida real estate is unique from other U.S. markets in that we continue to see high in-migration domestically and internationally," Fernando Arencibia Jr., CEO of Arenci Properties Realty, said.

If mortgage rates do increase later this year, the number of inbound movers and cash buyers should be enough to shield South Florida from falling home prices.

The bottom line: While mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, buying conditions will be easier and price growth will moderate in 2023. 

Sign up for Axios Local, now publishing daily newsletters in 26 cities, with three more coming later this year.

Realtors predict the end of a frantic market in 2023

Sellers everywhere will have to put in more work to close the deal.

Illustration of the year 2022, with a keyhole for a zero, which zooms in so you can see through the keyhole to the year 2023.

Real estate

As anti-abortion activists gather in Washington, D.C., on Friday to celebrate the overturning of Roe v. Wade — a singular cause that united abortion opponents for decades — some factions are split on the movement's next steps. 

The big picture: While mainstream anti-abortion messaging still revolves around sanctioning doctors or clinics, a small but growing group of self-described abortion abolitionists are taking steps to single out and punish those seeking to end a pregnancy.

Major anti-abortion groups like Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, the National Right to Life Committee and the March for Life organization — which is organizing Friday's anti-abortion rally — have urged state lawmakers crafting anti-abortion bills to consider abortion patients as "victims" immune from prosecution.

But Abolish Human Abortion, one of the most high-profile abortion abolitionist groups, states that abortion "is an act of murder and should never be considered an acceptable solution for any difficult circumstance."

The post-Roe fight dividing anti-abortion activists

While major anti-abortion groups oppose prosecuting patients, some state lawmakers are thinking otherwise.

Axios

Friday's top stories

Yellen rejects GOP gambit on debt ceiling

U.S. to designate Russia's Wagner Group as a transnational criminal organization

A tale of two job markets

Mayors call for help with migrants and asylum seekers

Realtors predict the end of a frantic market in 2023

The post-Roe fight dividing anti-abortion activists

Historic building ablaze in Peru's capital during deadly protest clashes

Death toll in Buffalo's historic December blizzard rises to 47

Trump, attorneys sanctioned over $937,000 for allegedly abusing court

Axios Finish Line: Don't be a loser

FAA: Outage caused by contract workers unintentionally deleting files