Axios

The Oglala Sioux Tribe, one of the largest Indigenous tribal nations in the U.S., is accusing ICE of illegally holding four tribal members picked up during Minneapolis raids.

Why it matters: ICE agents can arrest U.S. citizens in some cases, but agents can't place U.S. citizens in immigration detention, including Indigenous tribal members, after their citizenship is verified.

Senate Republican leaders are eyeing a procedural maneuver on the Venezuela war powers resolution that could spare President Trump an embarrassing defeat.

Why it matters: Trump went ballistic after five Republicans voted with Democrats to move forward with the resolution last week. Now GOP leaders are pressuring the defectors and considering blocking the bill from coming to the floor.

Over 50 House Democrats have signed on to co-sponsor articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: That is roughly a quarter of the House Democratic caucus — a far cry from the party's out-of-hand dismissal of every other impeachment effort that has cropped up thus far during Trump's second term.

President Trump has a surprising phone pal: He and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani have texted back and forth recently, two sources familiar with their conversations tell Axios.

Why it matters: The back-channeling between the democratic socialist mayor and Trump — who once derided Mamdani as a "communist" — indicates their private communications have been more extensive than previously thought.

The probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell comes as the Supreme Court is weighing just how strong President Trump's grip on independent agencies can get.

The big picture: Trump has taken significant steps to reshape the federal bureaucracy to his liking, but the Fed has eluded him. However, the Supreme Court is set to hear a pair of cases — that of Fed governor Lisa Cook and fired Federal Trade Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter — that could expand the president's power to fire.

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) is demanding information on how many of the roughly 1,500 pardoned for Jan. 6-related offenses have since been hired by the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security.

Why it matters: Raskin's request — sent Tuesday to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem — comes amid mounting scrutiny of ICE tactics.

JPMorgan Chase executives on Tuesday raised concerns about the Trump administration's Fed chair investigation and its proposed credit card interest rate cap.

Why it matters: Wall Street has largely been aligned with the White House on economic matters — but this time is different.

Joe Thompson, the assistant U.S. Attorney who has overseen the investigation into massive fraud schemes in Minnesota, is one of six federal prosecutors resigning from the office, according to multiple media reports.

Why it matters: The New York Times and Minnesota Public Radio, using unnamed sources, reported that Thompson quit because of how the DOJ is handling the investigation into the ICE shooting of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis last week.

A new report from CNN suggests that the Pentagon may have discovered a device that causes a mysterious illness known as "Havana Syndrome."

Why it matters: The cause of Havana Syndrome — which has been linked to neurological illness among U.S. diplomats and government workers around the world — has puzzled researchers for years.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff met secretly over the weekend with the exiled former crown prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, to discuss the protests raging in Iran, according to a senior U.S. official.

Why it matters: This was the first high-level meeting between the Iranian opposition and the Trump administration since the protests began 15 days ago. Pahlavi is attempting to position himself to step in as a "transitional" leader if the regime falls.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) threw cold water on President Trump's push to cap credit card interest rates at 10% Tuesday, questioning the policy merits of the idea and signaling Congress would be unlikely to act on it.

Why it matters: Johnson's hesitancy to embrace Trump's proposal is notable on its face — the speaker is often in lockstep with the president — and it suggests the proposal lacks the support needed to move through the House.

The Federal Reserve's modus operandi through years of attacks from President Trump has been straightforward: Head down, do your job, don't get sucked into counterattacks.

• Fed chair Jerome Powell tossed that playbook aside in responding forcefully to the prospect of criminal charges over his stewardship of the Fed's building renovation.

The big picture: Some 36 hours after the shocking news broke, the strategy is working. Trump allies within the administration and on Capitol Hill are distancing themselves from a potential Powell prosecution.

House Democrats are at odds over how to respond to a sudden influx of demands from their infuriated constituents to try to rein in ICE following the fatal shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis last week.

Why it matters: The issue is resurfacing fundamental divisions over strategy and messaging that have been dogging Democratic lawmakers throughout the second Trump administration.

House Oversight Republicans will begin contempt of Congress proceedings against former President Bill Clinton after he failed to appear for a deposition Tuesday as part of the committee's investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Why it matters: Invoking contempt — a rarely used congressional enforcement tool — against a former president would mark a significant escalation by House Republicans.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) on Tuesday will call for unanimous consent to pass the bipartisan DEFIANCE Act, a bill to protect people from image-based sexual abuse online, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Chatbots are coming under fire for producing child sexual abuse material and non-consensual intimate imagery of adults, and people are eager for legal recourse.

President Trump called on the Iranian people on Tuesday to "keep protesting" and "take over" government institutions.

Why it matters: This is the most explicit backing Trump has given to the idea of toppling the Iranian regime since the protests started more than two weeks ago. While Trump said "help is on its way," he didn't say what form it would take.

Inflation held at a four-year low in December, the government said on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The data comes as the White House attempts to address consumers' affordability concerns that have weighed on President Trump's approval rating.

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rose 2.4% last year after two years of declines, per new estimates from the Rhodium Group.

State of play: Emissions from fuel use in buildings rose 6.8% as colder winter temperatures drove space heating demand.

Many of the world's top central bankers rallied behind Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, issuing a rare joint defense after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into him.

Why it matters: The banking establishment fears Trump's pressure campaign against Powell could destabilize the global economy. If America's central bank loses credibility, every part of the economy — mortgage rates, grocery bills, wages — could suffer.

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei and co-founder Mike Allen write this column on their 20 years as entrepreneurs together:

Twenty years ago this year, Jim quit The Washington Post and Mike bolted TIME magazine to fix a problem that seems baffling today:

• Consumers needed more political news, delivered with more speed and more voice. Politico — which launched Jan. 23, 2007 — was the solution.

Why it matters: Little did we know. We soon helped end the daily news cycle, seed and feed a consumer addiction to political news, topple legacy news models, and fragment media consumption in then-unimaginable ways.

A new coalition to protect prediction markets from state-based regulations has recruited two high-profile former members of Congress to join its team, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: By bringing in former Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) and Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) is signaling they plan to be aggressive about defending their turf.

The climate agenda's fall from grace over the past year has been stunning — in speed, scale and scope.

Why it matters: Whether this collapse in climate-change ambition proves permanent or temporary will shape the planet — which is still warming in unprecedented ways — and trillions of dollars in global energy investment.

The investigation into the killing of 37-year-old Renee Nicole Good would likely be going very differently if a local police officer, instead of an ICE agent, had pulled the trigger last week in Minneapolis.

Why it matters: A local police shooting usually initiates a multi-agency investigation and the threat of prosecution. An ICE agent shooting is handled almost entirely inside the federal government — where accountability is far harder to reach.

A former U.S. Navy sailor found guilty of spying for China was sentenced to 200 months in prison on Monday, officials announced.

The big picture: Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche in a Monday statement said Jinchao Wei was an "active-duty U.S. Navy sailor betrayed his country and compromised the national security of the United States" by selling military secrets to a Chinese intelligence officer.

Former special counsel Jack Smith will testify publicly at a House Judiciary Committee hearing later this month, Judiciary chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) announced Monday.

Why it matters: Smith, who testified privately to the panel in December, has sought an open forum to defend his investigation into President Trump from Republican attacks.

A House Democrat is introducing legislation that would block President Trump from making good on his threats to either purchase Greenland or take it by force, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: It's in direct competition with a Republican bill also introduced on Monday that would authorize Trump to "take such steps as may be necessary" to acquire the Danish-controlled island territory.

The man shot by a U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agent in East Portland was charged Monday with aggravated assault of a federal officer, the Department of Justice announced.

Why it matters: The shooting of Luis David Nino-Moncada and Yorlenys Betzabeth Zambrano-Contreras in the parking lot of a health facility in East Portland has roiled the city, sparking protests over the weekend and condemnation of heavy-handed immigration enforcement.

Last week's shootings in Minneapolis and Portland has supercharged a push by Democrats in Congress to use an upcoming government funding deadline to try to slash funding to ICE.

Why it matters: Unlike during Trump's first term, it's not just progressives taking up the "defund ICE" banner. The idea is proliferating even among the more moderate and establishment wings of the party.

Senate Republican leaders are proceeding very carefully on the Department of Justice's criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Why it matters: After last week's war powers resolution vote, Republicans know they cross President Trump at their own peril. At the same, they appear ready to confront Trump on the Fed's ability to act independently of political pressure.