Axios

A major bet on Nicolás Maduro's capture before the Venezuelan president was seized in an American military raid shows how prediction markets pose a controversial new opportunity for insiders to profit on secret information.

Why it matters: Insider trading on the stock market is illegal, while insider trading on prediction markets is generally not — at least for now — and critics say that's a problem.

The Trump administration says it is freezing $10 billion in funds for child care and poor families in five blue states, the Office of Management and Budget confirmed to Axios Monday.

Why it matters: The White House is pointing to reports of social services fraud in Minnesota to threaten funding for child care around the country.

• Child care providers are bracing for a slowdown in funds and the possibility of cuts that threaten their ability to operate. That could create wider issues, as millions of parents rely on child care to get to their jobs.

Federal Judge Alvin Hellerstein, a 92-year-old Clinton-era appointee, is presiding over the case against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in New York City.

Why it matters: Hellerstein has presided over high-profile cases for decades, including recent ones against the Trump administration.

After the U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, tensions between President Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro are boiling over.

Why it matters: What Trump has called a "successful" attack on Venezuela could embolden his administration to pursue a military actios in Colombia against the country's alleged drug facilities — or its leadership.

The Trump administration on Monday dramatically overhauled the federal childhood vaccination schedule, cutting the number of recommended shots to 11 to align with what it called "consensus among peer nations."

Why it matters: It's a major public health gamble that assumes children's health won't be endangered by slashing the number of shots the government recommends for all kids by more than a third since before President Trump re-entered office.

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is weighing a run for Minnesota governor, sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: The four-term senator — one of the state's highest-profile and most popular Democrats — would be an instant frontrunner in the race to succeed DFL Gov. Tim Walz.

Captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro is being represented in court by a high-profile lawyer whose list of clients includes WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

The big picture: Barry Pollack, a veteran trial lawyer and partner at Harris St. Laurent & Wechsler, appeared in federal court Monday with Maduro, where his client pleaded not guilty to drug and weapons-related charges.

President Trump's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend might be the first step of a larger military effort against Latin American countries.

The big picture: As Trump looks to assert his own version of the Monroe Doctrine, his administration has shown little hesitation to act in Latin America through controversial boat strikes and pointed threats that align with the president's broader war on drugs.

A House Democrat is introducing legislation that would make it illegal for government officials to use online prediction markets to make bets on political events based on privileged information.

Why it matters: The bill comes in response to the huge profits some traders on Polymarket made betting on Nicolás Maduro's ouster shortly before the Venezuelan president was extradited to the U.S. on Saturday.

Captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro faced his first day in a New York court Monday.

Why it matters: His historic appearance on the heels of the shocking U.S. operation that President Trump ordered to depose him kicked off what is expected to be a protracted legal battle with major geopolitical implications.

Almost two hundred people are suing the Trump administration over its decision to pause immigration casework from passport holders on the travel ban list.

Why it matters: Hundreds of thousands of people, already living the U.S., have been frozen in immigration limbo in the middle of navigating the legal system.

Tariff drama and tax cuts! AI spending and AI-spurred job losses! New Federal Reserve leadership! It is on track to be a big year across all the key policy areas of interest to economy-watchers.

The big picture: Seismic changes have been set in motion by the Trump administration's sweeping policy agenda and a mega-wave of investment in artificial intelligence — likely to determine the fate of the economy in 2026.

1. The AI economy

The biggest macro questions are whether the alarm bells about AI and the labor market will start to ring true — and whether the productivity effects move from just anecdotes to the economic data.

• Last year, much evidence pointed to AI as a marginal part of the labor market slowdown. Some economists (and officials inside the White House) argue that broader adoption of the technology would boost the labor market, at least in the short term.

Of note: AI spending buoyed economic growth, at least in the first nine months of 2025. It is also lifting the stock market, which might help support spending among wealthier consumers.

• Whether this turns out to be a bubble that pops — and the extent such a risk poses to the broader financial system as the Fed rolls back regulations — is the related theme to watch.
• That said, any correction in AI investment looks more likely to be a down-the-road story than a 2026 issue.

2. Tax cut boost

The One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law in July, is set to have its maximum economic punch in the early months of 2026, a likely tailwind for overall economic growth.

• But how large, how broad-based and how sustained that boost will turn out to be remains to be seen.

Zoom in: Fiscal policy is on track to add about 2.3 percentage points to first-quarter GDP growth, per data from the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure from the Brookings Institution.

• On the individual tax side, beneficiaries of policies like a deduction for tip income, Social Security payments and expanded deductibility of state and local tax are on track to generate super-sized tax refunds this spring,
• On the corporate side, businesses are enjoying new tax incentives for capital spending, especially on factories.
• Federal spending on immigration enforcement, meanwhile, is ramping up due to the legislation.

3. Trade uncertainty (maybe) resolving

Any day now, the Supreme Court will hand down a decision that might scramble the centerpiece of President Trump's economic agenda: the ability to impose huge tariffs unilaterally.

• If the court strikes down the bulk of Trump's tariffs, fiscal revenues could be put at risk, resulting in a chaotic refund process.
• That said, the ruling will help create some guardrails on what kinds of legal authority the president has to impose unilateral tariffs. That, in turn, could lead to a more stable tariff picture (albeit with much higher rates than pre-2025).
• While there are other authorities the president can use to enact tariffs besides the sweeping authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act he has claimed, they require a more deliberative process than the kind of whipsawing that importers faced last year.

4. Future of the Fed

Fed chair Jerome Powell's term is up in May, and Trump's selection of his successor is imminent, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh the leading job candidates.

Zoom out: Whoever takes the reins will face immense pressure from Trump to lower interest rates to rock-bottom levels — amid continued high inflation — and how they handle that pressure may determine the future of the central bank's independence from the White House.

• Trump expects the future Fed chair to consult with him on rates, while casting the intention to lower rates as a key qualification for the next leader.
• The question is whether the next Fed chair can resist that political pressure and whether financial markets believe that is the case. If bond markets lose confidence that the Fed will raise short-term rates if necessary to combat an inflation surge, it could paradoxically drive up long-term rates.
• Another huge question: the makeup of the influential Fed board, with the Supreme Court also set to decide whether Trump can fire governor Lisa Cook and, by extension, other Biden-appointed governors.

5. Affordability and the midterms

With voters going to the polls in November, the cost of living is emerging as a core battleground.

• Democrats seeking to take control of Congress are making political hay about the affordability crisis.
• Trump has called the term affordability a "con job," but said recently that he believes "pricing" will be a major election issue.

Flashback: The Consumer Price Index is up a moderate 2.7% over the last 12 months, but that increase came on top of the Biden-era inflation surge.

• The index is up 23.7% since January 2021, even more for some often-purchased subcategories, including groceries (up 24.6%).

Over the holiday break, the administration quietly shelved plans to impose levies on imported pasta and furniture.

• It's a hint that the White House is eager to avoid trade levies that might flow directly to prices consumers pay, as opposed to affecting input costs for businesses.

Sen. Mark Kelly's (D-Ariz.) vowed that he will "fight" with "everything [he's] got" to stop Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth from reducing his retirement ranking over conduct the secretary called "seditious" Monday after Kelly appeared in a video urging service members to disobey unlawful orders.

Why it matters: The potential demotion is a serious escalation, typically reserved for significant misconduct, and could drastically affect Kelly's pension.

Bipartisan congressional appropriators on Monday released a three-bill spending package, marking the first major movement on government funding since last year's record-breaking shutdown.

Why it matters: The government will shut down Jan. 30 if Congress doesn't pass full-year spending bills or a short-term extension.

Protesters across the U.S. rallied against the Trump administration's intervention in Venezuela over the weekend, demanding "No Blood for Oil."

Why it matters: In a callback to past anti-war protests, activists are reviving the "No Blood for Oil" slogan to oppose U.S. military action in Venezuela. The message reflects enduring skepticism of foreign intervention — and a fear that energy interests, not clear national security goals, are driving the conflict.

Silicon Valley's congressman is facing a revolt from some of his wealthiest constituents, and even could get primaried.

Why it matters: This is ground zero for the thorny politics of income inequality, which will become pervasive as the AI revolution mints more billionaires and costs "normies" their jobs.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted Sunday there is "not a war" with Venezuela despite the stunning U.S. raid that captured Nicolás Maduro and President Trump's announcement that America will "run" the country.

• Rubio said the U.S. was instead "at war against drug trafficking organizations."

Why it matters: By framing Saturday's operation as law enforcement, not war, the administration argues it doesn't need Congress' permission to bomb a military base and capture a head of state.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz announced Monday that he is ending his bid for reelection.

Why it matters: The reversal, which came amid mounting pressure from fellow Democrats, marks a major shake-up in Minnesota politics heading into the 2026 midterms.

Ian Bremmer — president and founder of Eurasia Group, a top global political-risk research and consulting firm — says the top geopolitical risk for 2026 is the "U.S. Political Revolution," with President Trump "so committed to and so capable of changing the political system."

Why it matters: Eurasia Group's annual "Top Risks" report — out Monday, 48 hours after Trump shook the world by snatching Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro — isolates the "biggest threats to the trajectories of nations, industries and institutions," to help leaders and investors prepare for the year.

We're locked in the fastest, broadest, most consequential reordering of politics, tech and business of our lifetimes — and it's a global phenomenon.

Why it matters: The conventional wisdom is that everything is being disrupted everywhere. But we're actually experiencing the aftershocks of a decade of disruption in America and other advanced economies.

The era of post-disruption society has begun. The new, unfolding era is being shaped by rising inequality, mass migration and immigration, surging populism, fading trust and emerging AI.

• The good news: This is navigable for leaders, and everyone, if you understand this shared global phenomenon.

If 2025 delivered shock waves to public health and federal health programs, this year promises more chaos as providers, payers, consumers and policymakers deal with the repercussions.

Why it matters: The sweeping changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, the upending of the vaccine system, and new ways people purchase drugs foreshadow the most significant changes to health markets since the passage of Obamacare.

President Trump's vision of American oil companies rebuilding Venezuela's broken petro-sector creates his biggest test yet of the U.S. industry's tolerance for risk.

Why it matters: Trump and other administration officials haven't been subtle about calling Venezuela's massive oil reserves a key reason for toppling President Nicolás Maduro.

The leaders of Greenland and Denmark called on President Trump to stop threatening to take over the resources-rich autonomous territory that's part of the Danish kingdom.

The big picture: The calls come after Trump renewed his push to control Greenland during a Sunday interview with The Atlantic on the U.S. raid and ensuing capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas.

President Trump said Sunday the U.S. could launch a second strike on Venezuela if "they don't behave."

Why it matters: His comments came after Venezuela's interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez, struck a more conciliatory tone after Trump issued a warning to her following her earlier criticism of the U.S. attack and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Top Minnesota Democrats are condemning President Trump for amplifying false claims about the murder of former House Speaker Melissa Hortman.

Driving the news: On Saturday, Trump shared a Truth Social post and video that promotes unsubstantiated conspiracy theories tying Hortman's June 14 slaying to Gov. Tim Walz and alleged fraud in state programs.

President Trump said the U.S. will be strongly involved in Venezuela's oil industry, asserting that American companies will take a lead in rebuilding its deteriorating petroleum infrastructure.

The big picture: Trump's comments about the nation's huge oil reserves following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro raise many unanswered questions, including how much interest the companies have in re-establishing operations there.

Venezuela must remain an independent country, Pope Leo XIV said Sunday as he expressed concern for Venezuelans following the U.S. raid and ensuing capture of leader Nicolás Maduro in the South American country.

The big picture: President Trump said Saturday American officials will "run" Venezuela until a "proper transition can take place" following the attack on Caracas to capture Maduro, who's in U.S. custody and faces charges including narcoterrorism.