Someone made a huge profit predicting Maduro's capture. Here's what happened
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Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro addresses a march in Caracas on Nov. 21, 2025. Photo: Jesus Vargas/Getty Images.
Traders and speculative bettors earned huge profits on prediction markets because of the capture of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro.
Why it matters: Though the capture of Maduro seemed to come out of the blue for many Americans, some were ahead of the curve, netting them thousands of dollars.
- These bets — many of which were on Maduro's capture, and are now on what happens next to the ousted leader — will renew longstanding questions about inside information and access to prediction markets.
Driving the news: Traders on Polymarket appeared to anticipate Maduro's capture late Friday night, before President Trump announced it early Saturday morning.
- The market for whether or not Maduro would be out of power climbed shortly before 10pm ET on Friday, after hovering in the low single digits for weeks, per the Wall Street Journal.
- What appears to be a newly created account appeared to invest $30,000 Friday in Maduro's exit. After Maduro went into custody Saturday morning, that same investor netted $436,759.61.
- Polymarket did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment Saturday morning.
State of play: Polymarket was packed with questions related to the Venezuela news Saturday morning.
- The question of "Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?" spiked around 4:20am ET — around the time of Trump's announcement — after hovering at a low level for weeks.
- There was a slight bump close to 3am ET, though.
Yes, but: The timing was still a surprise for some. The prediction site Kalshi showed the market for Maduro leaving office before February at around 13 cents.
Between the lines: There've been noteworthy prediction market swings over political battles, sports matches and other moments, so the idea that Maduro's capture was of interest to bettors isn't new.
- Prediction markets really gained nationwide buzz after they shook up the 2024 presidential election, when they showed a stark disparity with political analysts.
What's next: Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) will reportedly introduce a new bill — the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 — to limit federal elected officials and some political figures from engaging in prediction markets.
The bottom line: It's clearly possible to profit off big news events.
- But that might not be the case much longer.
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