Axios

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's preference is to let COVID-era enhanced Obamacare subsidies expire at the end of the year — but he is also staking out an early compromise position.

Why it matters: Extending the subsidies is Democrats' top demand in exchange for avoiding — or ending — a government shutdown. GOP leadership has said now is not the time, but the matter will have to be decided on by year's end.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) will host a "shadow hearing" on Tuesday to draw attention to what she describes as the skyrocketing insurance costs awaiting everyday Americans if Congress doesn't reauthorize ACA premium subsidies by year's end.

Why it matters: Democrats are trying to increase pressure on Republicans over health care costs to force them to the negotiating table on the shutdown.

Speaker Mike Johnson plans to keep his members out of Washington this week, with a simple request: No fundraisers.

Why it matters: Johnson is convinced that House Republicans have the moral and tactical high ground in the negotiations over how to fund the government.

Democrats inside and outside of Congress erupted in fury over a proposal circulated among Senate Democrats to reopen the government for seven to 10 days if a shutdown happens.

Why it matters: It is an early glimpse at the kind of intense public backlash the Senate Democrats risk from the rest of their party, especially their base, if they do anything short of allowing a government shutdown.

The Department of Health and Human Services is referring Harvard University to the agency's office responsible for suspension and debarment decisions over alleged antisemitism inaction, the HHS announced Monday.

Why it matters: If upheld, the move would obstruct Harvard from receiving federal funding or entering into contracts with the federal government.

YouTube has agreed to pay President Trump $22 million to settle his 2021 lawsuit, which he filed after the company suspended his account following the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riot.

Driving the news: In addition, YouTube will pay $2.5 million to the other plaintiffs on the case, which include the American Conservative Union and writer Naomi Wolf.

Far-right commentators are lashing out online over Bad Bunny headlining the 2026 Super Bowl.

Why it matters: The Puerto Rican artist is increasingly becoming a political talking point after he decided to skip the continental U.S. over concerns that ICE would raid his concerts.

Congressional leaders on Monday left a White House meeting with President Trump without a deal to avoid a government shutdown before government funding lapses in a little more than 24 hours.

Why it matters: Both Republicans and Democrats remain dug in on their positions. Barring a last-minute breakthrough, a shutdown is increasingly likely.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday signed legislation that would mandate transparency measures from frontier AI companies.

Why it matters: The law will have major implications for the country's biggest AI players — and shows the appetite to regulate AI at the state level.

Soon after President Trump authorized federal troops to be sent to "war ravaged" Portland, residents quickly mobilized on social media to share what it's like "living in hell."

• "Hell" is standing in line for matcha, children riding bicycles, and roughly five people holding a "pastry protest" outside the driveway of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility in South Portland. Oh, and some guy's quest to kick a rock into a sphere.

The Social Security Administration will no longer issue physical benefit checks as of Tuesday for the majority of retirees — ending decades of mailed payments.

Why it matters: Some retirees without digital access, and people with disabilities who rely on traditional banking, could face headaches in the transition.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is sounding out his members about a spending bill to reopen the government for seven to 10 days — if a shutdown is in fact triggered on Oct. 1, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: Schumer's Plan B anticipates a government shutdown. He and Senate Democrats are also starting to think about how to get out of one.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported President Trump's plan to end the war in Gaza during a press conference at the White House on Monday, with both leaders saying it was now up to Hamas to agree.

The big picture: The plan the White House released on Monday includes a step-by-step process for ending the war and governing Gaza into the future — initially with Trump chairing a "peace board" for the enclave.

Two of President Trump's long-stalled nominees wrote six-figure checks to the Republican National Committee in the middle of their confirmation processes, according to federal fundraising records.

Why it matters: Political appointees are often party loyalists. But making donations during the confirmation process is unusual, a Senate insider and an expert on government ethics told Axios.

House Democratic leadership is growing increasingly vocal in accusing Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) of refusing to swear in their newest member in order to delay a vote on releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files.

Why it matters: Rep-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) would be the 218th signature on a discharge petition that would force a vote on the matter. But she has to be sworn in first.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics would stop operating in the event of a government shutdown — all active data collection would cease, the Department of Labor, which oversees the BLS, said Monday in a release.

Why it matters: That could delay some important reports, like the monthly unemployment numbers and, notably, a crucial October release used to establish the raises America's seniors get on their monthly Social Security checks.

About 58 million pounds of corn dogs and sausage-on-a-stick products are being recalled by the Agriculture Department because of possible wood fragments in the batter.

Why it matters: Wood ingestion from food can be life threatening.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's summoning of senior military leaders to Virginia for a Tuesday meeting bewildered military and congressional officials.

• Then, President Trump added to the mystery by announcing he'd also attend the hush-hush event.

The big picture: The gathering at Quantico, a Marine Corps base, has little precedent — and the president's appearance adds heightened security questions to the already massive event that will bring together the nation's top generals from across the globe.

Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) are introducing an AI risk evaluation bill on Monday, per an announcement shared exclusively with Axios.

Why it matters: There's still bipartisan appetite on Capitol Hill to address the biggest risks of AI — even as the White House warns regulation could hamper innovation and U.S. competition with China.

Power industry investments amid rising demand — from AI and beyond — create openings for clean tech startups despite policy headwinds, Energy Impact Partners founder Hans Kobler said.

Why it matters: EIP is a prominent backer of energy and climate tech companies via venture capital and other support, and works with utilities.

Feeling more anxious? More unsure? Unless you're heavily sedated, you should be: We've never witnessed so many population-wide shifts simultaneously in our lifetime.

• Three titanic tectonic plates are shifting at once: our technology, our governing and our reality-shaping. Washington, D.C., is the epicenter of all three.

Why it matters: You can't navigate business, politics, social media or life generally without understanding the speed, consequence and interconnectedness of these shifts.

• Think of this as a wide-angle lens on the world unfolding before you in real time.

Some congressional Democrats are going so far as to check their own personal finances after the indictment of James Comey, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: With President Trump calling for Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) to be prosecuted for mortgage fraud, members fear that a loose thread could provide an opening to go after them next.

A shutdown of the federal government could come as soon as Wednesday.

Why it matters: While shutdowns don't typically drag down the stock market, they can delay the economic data Wall Street tightly monitors for clues about monetary policy.

Moms of young children make up slightly more of the current U.S. Congress than the last group, a new report finds, yet still account for fewer than 1 in 10 federal lawmakers.

Why it matters: The numbers leave moms underrepresented in Congress and reflect the institution's lack of support for parent members, says Liuba Grechen Shirley, founder and CEO of the Vote Mama Foundation.

President Trump suggested Sunday evening that the Department of Justice may be investigating former FBI Director Christopher Wray.

The big picture: Three days after another Trump foe and former FBI Director James Comey was indicted, the president during an interview with NBC accused Wray of "inappropriate" behavior and said he "would think" that the DOJ is investigating him.

Political and community leaders are rejecting President Trump's move to deploy federal troops to Portland, calling it unnecessary and dangerous.

Why it matters: President Trump authorized the deployment of "all necessary" military troops to Portland on Saturday, giving them authority to use "full force" in a city he described as "war ravaged."

Oregon and Portland are suing President Trump in an effort to block his move to deploy National Guard troops to the state's largest city.

The big picture: The lawsuit that was filed on Sunday noted that following Trump's directive, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had signed a memorandum "calling 200 members of the Oregon National Guard into federal service for a period of 60 days" — which the suit called "patently unlawful."