Axios

House Democrats' campaign arm is warning colleagues not to "get comfortable" in the final weeks of the 2024 election, citing internal polling that shows nearly two dozen races within a few percentage points, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: It's a somewhat standard tone from Democrats ahead of an election — and includes an 11th hour plea for cash — but it dovetails with widespread anxiety among Democrats about the closeness of the election.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.)and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called on Vice President Kamala Harris to tone down her "base and irresponsible" anti-Trump rhetoric, arguing it could invite another assassination attempt against the former president.

Why it matters: In a rare joint statement Friday, Congress' top two Republicans sought to turn the tables on Harris and President Biden, who have painted Trump as responsible for a breakdown in political civility and increased threats against public figures.

Former President Trump, speaking from a private airplane hangar in Austin on Friday, railed against what he sees as failing border security policies under Vice President Kamala Harris.

Why it matters: Less than two weeks before the election, the Trump campaign is betting on swing state voters' border security concerns to take him to the finish line.

House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris' (R-Md.) colleagues said he needs to pull "his head out of his ass" and take "a Civics 101 class" for suggesting North Carolina legislators consider awarding the state's electors to former President Trump before votes are counted.

Why it matters: Harris is facing rare pushback from House members in both parties, particularly colleagues from North Carolina who say he is way off base.

Publishers at the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times this week said their papers would forgo endorsements for this year's presidential election, adding to a growing number of papers that are choosing to back down from political endorsements across the country.

Why it matters: Their decisions, coming less than two weeks from Election Day, have been hit with backlash from journalists who argue billionaire owners of papers that would've endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris are pulling punches to play it safe.

President Biden has formally apologized for the role the U.S. government played in abuses committed against Native American children in federal Indian boarding schools.

Why it matters: Biden's remarks in Arizona's Gila River Indian Community on Friday marked the first time a U.S. president has both formally acknowledged and apologized for the policy that saw abuses occur for more than 150 years and which the United Nations regards as genocide.

Nation-state election disinformation won't end on Nov. 5 as government officials prepare to fend off a wave of lies about the outcome.

Why it matters: Conspiracy theories and partisan social media posts peddled by Russia, Iran and China now have a longer shelf life.

A federal judge ruled Friday that Virginia purged 1,600 people from the state's rolls too close to Election Day.

Why it matters: Virginia is now required to add those voters back to the registration list, per statements from advocates and Gov. Youngkin.

The Biden administration rolled out a new proposal Friday to deliver student debt relief to borrowers facing financial hardship.

Why it matters: If the proposed guidelines are finalized, the plan would provide debt forgiveness for approximately 8 million borrowers, per the Department of Education.

The stark disparity between how prediction markets and political analysts view the 2024 presidential election is casting a spotlight on an increasingly influential but still poorly understood force in politics: betting.

Why it matters: Prediction markets — like Kalshi, PredictIt and Polymarket — give Donald Trump a much better shot to win the U.S. presidency, leading some observers to suggest that if Kamala Harris prevails, it will represent a failure of the market's predictive power.

Elon Musk's super PAC announced two lottery winners Thursday in its daily $1 million giveaway, defying a warning from the Justice Department.

Why it matters: The winners of the $1 million prizes are the first to be announced since news broke that the DOJ had sent a letter notifying America PAC, Musk's pro-Trump group, that its lottery could violate federal law against paying people to register to vote, per multiple outlets.

Friday morning the Democratic National Committee launched an ad campaign to get out the union vote, placing billboards near union halls and factories in battleground states.

Why it matters: The union vote is critical in the election and it's very much in play.

Elon Musk — the world's richest man and a major contractor to the U.S. government — "has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022," The Wall Street Journal reports.

Why it matters: Musk's conversations could foreshadow U.S. reengagement with Putin if former President Trump wins the White House, given "Trump's expressed desire to cut a deal over major fault lines such as the war in Ukraine," The Journal notes.

A growing number of top Democrats tell us privately they feel Vice President Harris will lose — even though polls show a coin-toss finish 11 days from now.

Why it matters: Democrats admit they tend to be hand-wringing, bed-wetting, doomsdayers. But what's striking is how our private conversations with Democrats inside and outside her campaign reveal broad concern that little she does, says — or tries — seems to move the needle.

If 2020 is our guide, it's likely that the 2024 presidential election won't be decided on Election Day.

Why it matters: Any period of uncertainty could see the country thrust into a time of legal drama, paralyzed governance and overall distrust, as Axios' Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen reported.

The gender gap among young registered voters ages 18-29 has more than doubled since March, according to a new Harvard Youth Poll survey.

Why it matters: Political differences between men and women have become a defining issue this year. The new survey reflects how Vice President Harris' entry into the presidential race has particularly energized young women voters.

Vice President Kamala Harris visited one of Georgia's most diverse cities Thursday with presidential, moviemaking and rock music legends to keep momentum with a crucial voting segment in a pivotal swing state.

Why it matters: Black Georgia voters were vital to President Biden winning the state in 2020 and sending him to the White House.

A Harris ad campaign is using audio of former White House chief of staff John Kelly calling former President Trump a "fascist" and claiming the Republican presidential nominee said "Hitler did some good things."

Why it matters: The 30- and 60-second ads that were first obtained by the New York Times are part of a wider push by Vice President Kamala Harris and her campaign to seek to portray Trump as a grave threat to the U.S. if re-elected next month.

Congressional Democrats are girding themselves for an agonizing Election Day as battles for Congress and the White House head for "nail-biter" finishes.

Why it matters: This is not a normal election for Democrats. They see keeping Donald Trump out of the Oval Office – or, if all else fails, denying him a GOP Congress over which he can run roughshod – as a moral imperative.

House Democrats are girding themselves for an agonizing, "nail-biter" Election Day.

Why it matters: Anxiety is lurking behind every door of every race. It will compound if Republicans run the table and win total control of the White House and Congress.

• That's why Dems see winning back the House – and denying Donald Trump the trifecta – as a moral imperative.
• "People are pretty anxious," Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), a member of Hakeem Jeffries' leadership team, told us. "This is an election where the consequences, we think, are as serious as they have ever been."

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is privately telling donors he can win his race if Harris stays within eight percentage points of Trump in the state, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: That's doable. Trump currently leads Harris by seven in the RealClearPolitics average of Ohio polls.

• Brown leads GOP challenger Bernie Moreno by less than a percentage point in the RCP polling average. The margin's been shrinking all fall.

The Senate Leadership Fund is making a late $6.2 million play in the Nevada Senate race to help GOP nominee Sam Brown's fight against Democrat Jacky Rosen.

Why it matters: Mitch McConnell and his super PAC are getting more confident Trump is going to defeat Harris in Nevada. They want to ride his potential coattails.

• That makes SLF's Nevada bet more of a parlay. It will only pay out if Trump also wins.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is privately telling donors he can win his race if Vice President Harris stays within eight percentage points of former President Trump in the state, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: That's doable. Trump currently leads Harris by seven in the RealClearPolitics average of Ohio polls.

The Senate Leadership Fund is making a late $6.2 million play in the Nevada Senate race, betting that former President Trump can carry Sam Brown across the finish line.

Why it matters: Brown is still (significantly) down against Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) in all the public polls.