Another Freedom Caucus chair fights for his political life

State of play: Republican strategists told Axios they have not been viewing Perry as vulnerable, noting that the district went for former President Trump by 4 points in 2020.

• But polling suggests the race is highly competitive, with one recent survey even showing Perry's Democratic opponent, former local news anchor Janelle Stelson, up by 9 percentage points.
• Stelson has hammered Perry's co-sponsorship of the anti-abortion Life at Conception Act, and in a new ad first shared with Axios she frames herself as an outsider and voices support for term limits.

Zoom out: Perry was first elected to a safely Republican seat in 2012, but court-ordered redistricting in 2018 placed him in a more divided territory.

• He has consistently won single-digit victories since 2018, though Democrats are quick to note they have never made this serious an investment in taking him down.
• Despite the shift in his district, Perry has remained a staunch conservative, positioning himself as a visible right-wing antagonist to GOP leadership for the last two years.
• In addition to his abortion record, Perry has been dogged by the FBI's seizure of his phone as part of a probe into his role in the events leading up to the Jan. 6 attack.

Between the lines: Perry would be the second Freedom Caucus leader to be ousted from Congress this year after Rep. Bob Good's (R-Va.) chairmanship was cut short in July when he lost his Republican primary.

• The right-wing group has been losing members and struggling to maintain the leverage it wielded at the start of the 117th Congress.

By the numbers: The GOP leadership-connected National Republican Congressional Committee and Congressional Leadership Fund are spending effectively nothing on ads in Perry's district as of Saturday, though other GOP groups have gotten involved, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

• Democrats, meanwhile, have funneled millions into the seat, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC collectively spending or reserving nearly $3.8 million in ads for Stelson.
• Stelson's campaign has spent another $3.6 million on ads, compared to just $860,000 spent by Perry, per AdImpact.
• GOP leadership is not shunning Perry completely, however – Johnson, who appointed Perry to the prestigious House Intelligence Committee, campaigned for him in the district Friday.
• Matt Beynon, a spokesperson for Perry's campaign, told Axios: "Leadership/committees have been very helpful throughout. Whatever we've asked for, they've done."

Zoom in: A handful of outside Republican groups have backed up Perry, including House Freedom Action, the political arm of the Freedom Caucus, which has put $630,000 into ads.

• Democratic strategists told Axios they think the strident tone of House Freedom Action ads, which label Stelson a "single issue pro-abortion Democrat" who supports "DEI and the trans agenda," renders them ineffective, though Republicans believe they are working.
• Several other Republican groups, including the American Action Network, CLF's non-profit arm, and Win it Back PAC, have spent $500,000 and $1 million on ads, respectively.
• Another Republican group, the Eighteen Fifty-Four Fund — which fought against right-wing candidates in GOP primaries last cycle — has reserved a behemoth $2.3 million in ads, but a spokesperson for the group declined to comment on the specifics of their investment.

What they're saying: To Democrats, this all spells opportunity. "Central Pennsylvanians know Scott Perry is a career politician who embodies chaos, dysfunction, and everything that's wrong with Washington," said DCCC spokesperson Aidan Johnson.

• "The only thing Perry cares about is advancing his extreme agenda and his constituents no longer want anything to do with him." 

The other side: "The Democrat Party left behind voters in PA-10 by embracing radical left-wing policies that drove up crime, the cost of living and unleashed chaos at the border," NRCC spokesperson Will Reinert told Axios.

• "As they have in previous cycles, Pennsylvania voters will reject an out of touch Democrat who doesn't even live in the district."

Axios' Juliegrace Brufke contributed reporting.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.