Axios

Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are about to get the Joe Manchin treatment — making them two of the most scrutinized, obsessively-covered and influential lawmakers in D.C.

Why it matters: The two Republicans are instantly the most critical votes in Congress if the Senate GOP gets its expected slim majority, with 51 or 52 seats.

• They'll have extraordinary influence over Cabinet confirmations, spending packages and even Supreme Court picks.

House Speaker Mike Johnson expects he'll get help from a "fully supportive" Trump in a potential speaker race in the next three months.

Why it matters: Johnson needs a speedy Trump endorsement to kneecap any challengers if the GOP holds the House.

• "I have a very close working relationship with President Trump and consider him now a close friend. I know that's mutual, and he tells me how much confidence he has in my leadership," Johnson told us in an exclusive interview.

Here's another reason Collins and Murkowski are so essential to understanding what's possible in the Senate for the new GOP leader next year.

• The number of wild card votes is dwindling with Manchin, Romney and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz) on their way out.

The big picture: Romney told us there's still a core of senators who've "proven that they're not allergic to legislating."

• He named four Republicans — Bill Cassidy (La.), Thom Tillis (N.C.), Todd Young (Ind.) and Jerry Moran (Kans.) — and Democrats Mark Warner (Va.) and Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) as people who'll legislate.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) expects he'll get help from a "fully supportive" former President Trump in a potential speaker race in the next three months.

Why it matters: Johnson needs a speedy Trump endorsement to kneecap any challengers if the GOP holds the House.

Move over, Sen. Joe Manchin. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) will be calling the shots in 2025.

Why it matters: The two Republicans are instantly the most critical votes in Congress if the Senate GOP gets its expected slim majority, with 51 or 52 seats. They'll have extraordinary influence over Cabinet confirmations, filibuster roundabouts and even Supreme Court picks.

Vice President Kamala Harris challenged former President Trump's contention that he would not support a national abortion ban, telling CBS News, "I'm too busy watching what he's doing to see what he has said."

The big picture: Abortion, largely a winning issue for Democrats, will be on the ballot in a slew of states across the country. And as the campaign cycle comes to a close, the Democratic ticket is highlighting reproductive rights in their final push for the White House.

With the countdown to Election Day in the single digits, GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance returned to the familiar Sunday show stage.

In his sometimes hostile sit-downs with three networks, Vance zoomed in on foreign policy while touting an image of former President Trump as a "candidate of peace," as the GOP nominee continues to deliver controversial closing arguments.

Here's what you may have missed when newsmakers hit the airwaves this Sunday, Oct. 27.

Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, repeatedly touted his running mate as the "candidate of peace" during his Sunday morning show blitz as the march to Election Day reaches single digits.

Why it matters: Vance's comments come as former White House officials are sounding the alarm over former President Trump's alleged authoritarian tendencies, while the GOP nominee stirs controversy with increasingly inflammatory campaign trail rhetoric.

President Biden wants to campaign for Vice President Harris in the campaign's final nine days.

• Harris' campaign keeps responding: We'll get back to you, three people familiar with the dynamic tell Axios' Alex Thompson.

Why it matters: Harris' team believes Biden is a political liability, but is reluctant to directly say they don't want him to campaign for her.

• There are no scheduled joint Biden-Harris events before Election Day, a week from Tuesday.

From GPS tracking devices on boxes carrying ballots to counting centers with 24-hour livestreams and big windows for public viewing, officials nationwide are working to boost transparency — and confidence — in the Nov. 5 election, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.

• Why it matters: The moves — along with pre-election tours and open houses of the counting centers — are among officials' new tactics to try to convince voters elections are fair and secure.

The White House saw a real risk Iran might attack Saudi oil fields in retaliation for Saturday's retaliatory strikes by Israel, which could have meant full-blown regional war, a top U.S. official tells me.

• Iran's supreme leader stopped short of calling for immediate retaliation, suggesting Iran is carefully weighing its response.

Why it matters: Israel's strikes, by hitting military targets rather than industrial facilities, have — for now — prevented a wider war. That has been a key goal of President Biden and Secretary of State Tony Blinken since the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel.

Individual Nevadans will have more say over the election than voters anywhere else in the country.

• Why it matters: Only seven swing states (graphic above) are in play. And even among those, there's a wide range in how much each ballot contributes to a single Electoral College vote, Axios' Neal Rothschild reports.

🧮 By the numbers: Based on 2020 turnout, a vote in Nevada counts for 1/234,229th of an electoral vote. That's 24% more than a vote in Arizona and 37% more than in Michigan.

Former First Lady Michelle Obama, in her first campaign appearance since speaking at the Democratic convention in August, issued a searing challenge to young men to overcome their anger and vote for Vice President Harris:

• "Your rage does not exist in a vacuum," she said at a rally in Kalamazoo, Mich. "If we don't get this election right, your wife, your daughter, your mother — we as women — will become collateral damage to your rage."

Above, Elon Musk awards Judey Kamora $1 million yesterday during an America PAC town hall in Lancaster, Pa., for signing a "Petition in Favor of Free Speech and the Right to Bear Arms."

• America PAC's website says seven other swing state registered voters have "earned" $1 million each over the past eight days.

Why it matters: Musk has given $119 million in four months to America PAC, his super PAC supporting former President Trump, and is camping out in Pennsylvania.

If you can't afford a house in your city, what about an investment property somewhere else?

• Why it matters: Some people are becoming homeowners while continuing to live in their rental apartments, Axios' Sami Sparber reports.

💡 How it works: That approach can make sense for renters with extra cash who want to remain in a costly area and start building equity, according to Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale.

• They could "look for a less-expensive market where their savings might be able to translate into a nice down payment," Hale told CNBC.

Dubbed "rentvesting," the strategy often involves taking on landlord responsibility from afar.

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From GPS tracking devices on boxes carrying ballots to counting centers with 24-hour livestreams and big windows for public viewing, officials nationwide are working to boost transparency — and confidence — in the Nov. 5 election.

Why it matters: The moves — along with pre-election tours and open houses of the counting centers — are among the latest tactics officials are using to try to convince voters that elections are fair and secure.

Individual Nevadans will have more say over the election than voters anywhere else in the country.

Why it matters: Only seven swing states are in play. And even among those, there's a wide range in how much each ballot contributes to a single Electoral College vote.

President Biden wants to campaign for Vice President Harris in the last days before the election.

• Harris' campaign keeps responding: We'll get back to you, three people familiar with the dynamic told Axios.

Why it matters: Harris' team believes Biden is a political liability at a crucial time in the campaign — but is reluctant to directly say they don't want him to campaign for her.