New Senate deciders
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Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are about to get the Joe Manchin treatment — making them two of the most scrutinized, obsessively-covered and influential lawmakers in D.C.
Why it matters: The two Republicans are instantly the most critical votes in Congress if the Senate GOP gets its expected slim majority, with 51 or 52 seats.
- They'll have extraordinary influence over Cabinet confirmations, spending packages and even Supreme Court picks.
- If former President Trump wins in November, Mitch McConnell's successor as Senate GOP leader — John Thune, John Cornyn or someone else — will need Collins and Murkowski on board to pass their legislative agenda.
- If Vice President Harris wins the White House, the two senators will be Democrats' go-to votes to get judges and top officials confirmed.
The big picture: Manchin served as a serious check on President Biden's congressional plans — blocking efforts to nuke the filibuster and forcing a spending limit on the Build Back Better plan.
- If Trump wins, he could face similar roadblocks on legislation or controversial Cabinet picks — or even more Supreme Court appointments.
- Collins will have particular power, being in line to chair the Appropriations Committee in a GOP majority.
🎤 Murkowski and Collins will be "extremely, extremely, extremely important" in the next Congress, Manchin told us.
- Manchin, who's retiring, called the two "the best in the world" and told us it's "important for people to be able to speak your own mind and be able to not be coerced by the party system."
- Retiring Sen. Mitt Romney told us "it's very possible that one or two people will be able to dramatically impact policy" if one party wins total government control.
Zoom in: Neither Collins nor Murkowski have endorsed Trump this year. They are two of only three GOP senators left who voted to convict Trump in an impeachment trial.
- They've voted with Republicans at a far lower rate (36%) than their colleagues this year, according to CQ's VoteWatch. That largely reflects them helping Democrats get judicial nominations through.
- Collins "believes generally that presidents are due some deference when it comes to nominations," spokesperson Annie Clark told us.
- Reproductive rights issues are an area where they're willing to break with the GOP. They voted this month with Democrats for legislation to ensure access to IVF.
The bottom line: Collins is up for re-election in 2026, and we're already hearing from sources speculating about whether the 71-year-old sticks around for another term.
- If she does not, she may feel even more free to vote her conscience and leave a legacy in her last Congress.
- If she does, she'll still need to thread the needle in Maine, which voted for Biden by a healthy nine percentage points in 2020.
- "She has been in the position of being one of the potential swing votes throughout her entire time in the Senate, and Senator Collins will not be changing her well-established approach," Clark added.
— Stef Kight
