Scoop: Mike Johnson's promise on next year's speaker race
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House Speaker Mike Johnson is ruling out a deal with Democrats to keep his speakership next year.
- "I've never once spoken to any Democrat about voting for me for Speaker, and I have no intention of doing that now," Johnson told Axios.
Why it matters: This avoids an internal revolt but leaves him needing a best-case election result to avoid former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's nightmare from two years ago.
- 🚨Axios is aware of at least four House Republicans firmly in the #NeverMike camp for leadership races. There are likely more who aren't being as vocal.
- Johnson currently has a tiny eight-seat majority, translating to a three-vote margin over Democrats.
- "I don't think it's going to be a 25-seat majority, but I do think it'll be substantially larger than what we have right now," Johnson told Axios about the coming elections.
⏪ In January 2023, Republicans had a 10-seat majority and McCarthy needed 15 excruciating ballots to win the gavel. Along the way, he agreed to rule changes that led to his toppling, including ...
- 1) Making it easier to call for a speaker ouster, which created the first such removal in history in October 2023.
- 2) Adding his rivals to the House Rules Committee, in which he surrendered his control over what legislation could come to the floor.
Zoom in: If he does survive as speaker, Johnson thinks he'll have enough votes to change the rules.
- "I think as the majority party, we'll have a broad agreement on changing the threshold on the motion to vacate," he told Axios.
🥵 But the conservatives who squeezed those changes from McCarthy say they'll oppose any effort to change back the rules.
- "I don't think it's been chaotic enough," Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who introduced the ouster motion against McCarthy, told Axios earlier in October.
The bottom line: Ruling out a deal with Democrats cuts off a crucial lifeline for Johnson, who has a good rapport with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
- In June, Democrats saved his speakership by helping block a motion to vacate from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) after Johnson pushed through an aid bill for Ukraine.
