House Dems' anxiety spikes over Nov. 5
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Congressional Democrats are girding themselves for an agonizing Election Day as battles for Congress and the White House head for "nail-biter" finishes.
Why it matters: This is not a normal election for Democrats. They see keeping Donald Trump out of the Oval Office – or, if all else fails, denying him a GOP Congress over which he can run roughshod – as a moral imperative.
- "People are pretty anxious," Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), a member of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' leadership team, told us. "This is an election where the consequences, we think, are as serious as they have ever been."
- Adding to the pressure for some lawmakers is the feeling that they may be the only backstop against a GOP trifecta.
- "Everyone feels like they are outperforming" Vice President Harris, said one House Democrat.
Driving the news: While House Democrats largely insist they are cautiously optimistic about their prospects of retaking the House majority, many also acknowledge that "cautiously" is the operative word in that statement.
- "Concerned but not rattled," is how one swing-district Democrat described their outlook, citing internal polling that shows Democrats losing ground in the last few weeks.
- New Democrat Coalition Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) said she was "looking at the numbers, and we have easily a dozen races that are virtual ties."
- "I don't think you can count on the polling even being accurate at that point. Well, well within the margin of error," Kuster said.
What they're saying: "Everybody wishes that this was a runaway wave election, but that is just not what we have. This is going to be terribly close," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.).
- "It's close," said Kildee. "Top of the ticket is close, statewide ballot ... it's neck and neck."
- "I was wide awake from 3 to 5 [am] ... what's keeping me up is just how close these races are," Kuster told reporters on a Tuesday press call.
- The House Democrat who spoke anonymously said: "Everyone agrees it's going to be a nail-biter. Nobody ... thinks it's going to be a runaway either way."
Zoom in: House Democrats in battleground districts feel "much better than the top of the ticket," one House Democrat told us.
- Democrats have pointed to their strong fundraising as a sign of grassroots enthusiasm, though a House Democrat previously told Axios that donors are giving big to congressional campaigns in part "because of worries that [Harris is] not going to win."
- Kildee said he thinks the presidential race "has been sort of static," adding that while he doesn't think Harris has backslid, the "joy and glee and optimism" of the summer has begun to "settle" as the election draws near.
Yes, but: "I know that doesn't sync up with what folks on Twitter [say], but I think those of us who are actually on the ballot are way, way, way more optimistic and energized," said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).
- The Democrat who spoke to Axios anonymously praised Harris' ground operation, arguing that Trump, by contrast, doesn't have "a serious, professional operation."
- In addition to their financial strength, Democrats also feel they have a strong crop of candidates, many of whom were star recruits in 2022 who are running in rematches against GOP freshmen.
The bottom line: Kuster summed up her mood as "nauseously optimistic."
